MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIL · batting 9David Hamilton
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.306wOBA vs RHP.297xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · STLMichael McGreevy
Throws rightBTB Stuff 84Trending Up
4.0projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Michael McGreevy's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 23% usage, 92.3 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +12.0″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .363 vs league .369 (about even).Fastball 23%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.2 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +1.4″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .276 vs league .282 (about even).Changeup 19%Sinker: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.1″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .339 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 16%Curveball: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -11.8″ arm side, -11.4″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .302 vs league .308 (about even).Curveball 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 88.5 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +6.1″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .360 vs league .365 (about even).Cutter 12%Sweeper: 11% usage, 82.3 mph, -14.8″ arm side, -1.9″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .308 vs league .314 (about even).Sweeper 11%Slider: 5% usage, 83.5 mph, -3.2″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. David Hamilton: wOBA .329 vs league .335 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is David Hamilton's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

David Hamilton's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 97.5 mph at 11°Single: 100.5 mph at 15°Out: 65.4 mph at 38°Single: 82.8 mph at 17°Out: 80.3 mph at -8°Out: 87.9 mph at 35°Out: 79.6 mph at 1°Out: 63.9 mph at 67°Single: 86.0 mph at 3°Single: 96.2 mph at 10°Out: 90.1 mph at 43°Out: 91.1 mph at 4°Out: 81.1 mph at 72°Out: 93.4 mph at 3°Out: 64.5 mph at -14°Out: 83.5 mph at 28°Out: 100.1 mph at 22°Single: 61.1 mph at -21°Single: 90.6 mph at 11°Single: 93.1 mph at 12°Triple: 96.3 mph at -3°Out: 70.7 mph at 53°Out: 97.5 mph at 21°Single: 25.2 mph at -52°Out: 101.6 mph at -2°Single: 104.1 mph at 18°Out: 86.1 mph at 4°Out: 87.1 mph at 3°Out: 91.8 mph at 1°Out: 72.8 mph at 75°Out: 97.2 mph at -18°Out: 73.0 mph at -21°Single: 102.1 mph at 11°Out: 86.4 mph at 51°Out: 34.4 mph at -30°Single: 27.2 mph at -64°Double: 102.9 mph at 20°Out: 91.6 mph at -16°Single: 31.9 mph at -58°Out: 83.3 mph at 28°
28% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.7%54.5%+2.2
2+ total bases26.9%25.4%+1.5
Home run5.6%5.2%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where David Hamilton hits
David Hamilton · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .314 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 24 pitches seen.290xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .316 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 20 pitches seen.311xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .371 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 15 pitches seen.299xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .200 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 34 pitches seen.266xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .352 on 16 PA) · league .386 · 39 pitches seen.367xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .306 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 29 pitches seen.314xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .376 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 26 pitches seen.331xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .292 on 8 PA) · league .351 · 27 pitches seen.327xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .342 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.315xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .567 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 64 pitches seen.415xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .263 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.270xwOBA .213 shrunk (raw .167 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 62 pitches seen.213xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .388 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 105 pitches seen.323
vs RHP · 519 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 20%15%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 13%12%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 17%26%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 24%27%Whiff 32% of 25 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 36% of 31 swings · league 49%36%
vs RHP · 519 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 24 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 65% of 20 pitches · league 72%65%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 66%73%Swings at 50% of 34 pitches · league 70%50%Swings at 80% of 39 pitches · league 76%80%Swings at 83% of 29 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 46% of 26 pitches · league 65%46%Swings at 63% of 27 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 5% of 64 pitches · league 24%5%Swings at 31% of 36 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 40% of 62 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 30% of 105 pitches · league 32%30%
vs RHP · 519 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

David Hamilton against each of Michael McGreevy's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball23%92.3+9″ / +12″.363.36912.2%14.5%38About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.2+14″ / +1″.276.28223.2%28.2%14About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker16%91.2+12″ / +4″.339.34412.9%15.3%28About league average vs these
Curveball14%79.2-12″ / -11″.302.30826.7%29.4%5Little history vs this shape
Cutter12%88.5+0″ / +6″.360.36517.3%20.3%20About league average vs these
Sweeper11%82.3-15″ / -2″.308.31421.4%23.9%10About league average vs these
Slider5%83.5-3″ / -1″.329.33525.9%28.5%15About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
David Hamilton · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.429.500.571.469.47612.5%12.5%6.2%85.7100.50.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1436.294.333.382.318.31527.8%5.6%19.0%86.1104.10.0%33.3%41.7%
Last 30 G2669.266.319.328.293.31718.8%7.2%15.4%84.3104.10.0%31.4%41.2%
90 days45121.269.336.333.316.30519.8%9.1%18.3%84.2104.61.2%32.6%37.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 86 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 28%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.15766.7%0.0%27.3%79.679.60.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G811.100.182.100.145.13345.5%0.0%27.8%76.590.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 30 G1930.241.267.379.312.23823.3%0.0%19.1%77.3102.94.5%18.2%31.8%
90 days2540.216.237.351.289.24627.5%0.0%22.1%75.3102.93.6%17.9%35.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 25%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.357.333.318.33935.7%7.1%14.8%84.9100.50.0%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1547.250.298.318.278.27331.9%4.3%21.0%84.5104.10.0%27.6%34.5%
Last 30 G3099.258.303.344.298.29320.2%5.1%16.4%82.2104.11.4%27.4%38.4%
90 days50161.255.312.338.309.29121.7%6.8%19.1%82.0104.61.8%28.9%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 27%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 8%
David Hamilton · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating26Below average
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.285 / .291results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter88.897.511.821Double
Sep 25RHPFastball92.0100.515.716Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.365.438.510Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.282.817.910Single
Sep 22RHPCutter91.580.3-8.120Out
Sep 22RHPFastball98.387.935.035Out
Sep 19LHPCutter83.079.61.212Out
Sep 17RHPCutter93.263.967.000Out
Sep 17RHPFastball98.386.03.357Single
Sep 15RHPFastball92.696.210.648Single
Sep 15LHPSlider84.090.143.015Out
Sep 12RHPSlider82.091.14.391Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25423001
Sep 23300011
Sep 22311000
Sep 19300002
Sep 18100001
Sep 17211000
Sep 15411002
Sep 12400002
Sep 11200000
Sep 6400011

Two strikes

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes
Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%23%24.4%17.5%18.6%
Fastball23%20%14.6%13.9%18.0%
Curveball14%18%22.9%12.9%20.0%
Sinker16%17%13.2%22.0%17.0%
Sweeper11%12%21.7%13.6%19.3%
Slider5%6%20.0%10.0%21.1%
Cutter12%5%16.7%16.7%17.9%
David Hamilton bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
David Hamilton with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.5%41.0%
Whiff%17.6%21.3%
Contact%82.4%78.7%
Chase%41.1%39.6%
wOBA.253.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.1%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.287
K%22.2%
BB%7.3%
Whiff%9.1%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%19.7%
Avg EV82.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

120 PA
wOBA.306
xwOBA vs this mix.297against pitches like his
RV/100-0.86
Hard-hit%21.9%
K%20.5%
BB%7.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 42.9%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.5%19%45 strikeouts: 15.6%16%56 strikeouts: 10.5%11%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.1%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.4
BTB Stuff84
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball23%6992.34.7%
Changeup19%9287.311.6%
Sinker16%7791.25.8%
Curveball14%9279.210.1%
Cutter12%9488.59.5%
Sweeper11%9282.213.1%
Slider5%8583.511.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19885%9%21%.379
Sep 139026%13%22%.254
Sep 710515%10%26%.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.David Hamilton: every projection we've made →