Michael McGreevy

STL · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 6:40 PM CT

Michael McGreevyRHP · STL vs MIL

4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.9 batters over 5.3 innings

Over 3.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%17.4%

BB%7.8%

Whiff%8.7%

Velo87.4

BTB Stuff84

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball23%6992.34.7%

Changeup19%9287.311.6%

Sinker16%7791.25.8%

Curveball14%9279.210.1%

Cutter12%9488.59.5%

Sweeper11%9282.213.1%

Slider5%8583.511.1%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	88	5%	9%	21%	.379
Sep 13	90	26%	13%	22%	.254
Sep 7	105	15%	10%	26%	.291

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameSTL @ MIL →American Family Field

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	23%	92.3	+8.9″	+12.0″
Changeup	Offspeed	19%	87.2	+14.2″	+1.4″
Sinker	Hard	16%	91.2	+12.4″	+4.1″
Curveball	Breaking	14%	79.2	-11.8″	-11.4″
Cutter	Hard	12%	88.5	+0.1″	+6.1″
Sweeper	Breaking	11%	82.3	-14.8″	-1.9″
Slider	Breaking	5%	83.5	-3.2″	-1.4″

The lineup he faces

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Garrett Mitchell30%

2Brice Turang25%

3William Contreras18%

4Jake Bauers30%

5Christian Yelich25%

6Joey Ortiz21%

7Luis Lara23%

8Sal Frelick14%

9David Hamilton21%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Michael McGreevy STL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Changeup+4 pts

Fastball-3 pts

Curveball+3 pts

Sinker+0 pts

Sweeper+2 pts

Slider+1 pts

Cutter-7 pts

Michael McGreevy with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Changeup	19%	23%	24.4%	17.5%	18.6%
Fastball	23%	20%	14.6%	13.9%	18.0%
Curveball	14%	18%	22.9%	12.9%	20.0%
Sinker	16%	17%	13.2%	22.0%	17.0%
Sweeper	11%	12%	21.7%	13.6%	19.3%
Slider	5%	6%	20.0%	10.0%	21.1%
Cutter	12%	5%	16.7%	16.7%	17.9%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts1BTB expected 4.4 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line0 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	MIL	4.0	3.5	56.2%	52.1%	not settled
Sep 19	WSH	4.4	3.5	62.8%	53.4%	1