MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 1JJ Wetherholt
Bats leftTalent grade CPowerNormal
.311wOBA vs LHP.335xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .250 vs league .252 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .345 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .311 vs league .313 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .319 vs league .321 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .317 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is JJ Wetherholt's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

JJ Wetherholt's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.9 mph at 46°Out: 78.6 mph at 6°Out: 98.3 mph at 16°Out: 73.8 mph at -3°Out: 95.5 mph at -10°Double: 98.5 mph at 25°Single: 51.5 mph at -53°Out: 102.8 mph at 32°Single: 97.0 mph at 0°Single: 86.0 mph at 20°Single: 101.3 mph at 6°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 85.0 mph at 5°Single: 89.5 mph at 20°Out: 75.2 mph at -36°Out: 52.6 mph at -40°Single: 100.7 mph at 9°Single: 88.3 mph at 7°Out: 99.1 mph at 36°Out: 74.7 mph at 46°Out: 96.1 mph at 30°Out: 88.3 mph at -20°Out: 69.7 mph at 50°Out: 87.7 mph at -12°Out: 85.9 mph at -16°Out: 60.7 mph at -51°Out: 81.1 mph at 6°Out: 104.5 mph at 22°Out: 97.6 mph at 25°Out: 98.8 mph at -10°Single: 99.7 mph at 15°Single: 101.5 mph at 8°Out: 89.4 mph at 0°Single: 102.0 mph at 11°Out: 78.9 mph at 14°Single: 75.4 mph at -44°Out: 98.2 mph at 24°Single: 103.5 mph at 10°Out: 98.4 mph at 6°Home run: 103.8 mph at 29°
53% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.6%64.4%+0.1
2+ total bases38.7%39.1%-0.4
Home run11.7%12.8%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
0.0
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where JJ Wetherholt hits
JJ Wetherholt · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .430 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 9 pitches seen.290xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .491 on 7 PA) · league .296 · 22 pitches seen.368xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .124 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 23 pitches seen.222xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .117 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 13 pitches seen.270xwOBA .521 shrunk (raw .647 on 13 PA) · league .385 · 28 pitches seen.521xwOBA .290 shrunk (raw .239 on 12 PA) · league .340 · 30 pitches seen.290xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .247 on 16 PA) · league .273 · 33 pitches seen.258xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .410 on 13 PA) · league .350 · 33 pitches seen.381xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .628 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 11 pitches seen.324xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .064 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 37 pitches seen.242xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .249 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 48 pitches seen.310xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .342 on 14 PA) · league .289 · 92 pitches seen.318xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .156 on 6 PA) · league .257 · 28 pitches seen.223
vs LHP · 407 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 21%14%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 23%6%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 11%20%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 10% of 21 swings · league 14%10%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 16%14%Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 25%40%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 29%20%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 48%35%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 34%15%
vs LHP · 407 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 63%44%Swings at 64% of 22 pitches · league 71%64%Swings at 70% of 23 pitches · league 64%70%Swings at 46% of 13 pitches · league 67%46%Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 67% of 30 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 55% of 33 pitches · league 59%55%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 68%64%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 66%64%Swings at 14% of 37 pitches · league 30%14%Swings at 31% of 48 pitches · league 26%31%Swings at 19% of 92 pitches · league 31%19%Swings at 46% of 28 pitches · league 41%46%
vs LHP · 407 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

JJ Wetherholt against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.250.25220.3%31.4%7Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.345.34714.6%17.8%28About league average vs these
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.311.31325.5%30.7%14About league average vs these
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.319.3219.4%11.7%28About league average vs these
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.317.31911.6%15.4%15About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
JJ Wetherholt · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.286.286.286.257.26914.3%0.0%12.5%77.598.30.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1121.238.238.381.267.37623.8%0.0%11.4%85.2103.812.5%43.8%43.8%
Last 30 G2344.190.227.286.249.33718.2%4.5%11.0%86.6104.68.8%38.2%44.1%
90 days49105.214.267.357.304.34519.0%6.7%14.0%87.9105.210.3%43.6%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 78 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 19%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.308.357.385.332.35121.4%7.1%15.4%91.4102.810.0%60.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1537.257.297.286.266.34427.0%5.4%23.1%92.1104.58.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2983.254.361.310.313.36821.7%12.0%18.7%92.5105.57.5%58.5%37.7%
90 days56164.226.354.285.314.35417.1%13.4%18.6%90.3105.54.6%46.8%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 109 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.300.333.350.307.32319.0%4.8%14.7%86.2102.86.2%50.0%31.2%
Last 15 G1558.250.276.321.266.35525.9%3.4%19.0%89.4104.59.8%53.7%41.5%
Last 30 G30127.230.315.301.291.35720.5%9.4%15.9%90.2105.58.0%50.6%40.2%
90 days62269.221.320.315.310.35017.8%10.8%16.7%89.3105.57.0%45.5%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 187 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
JJ Wetherholt · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches80trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .365running 55 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball92.097.946.041Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper77.178.66.283Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.498.316.628Out
Sep 25RHPSinker98.073.8-3.092Force out
Sep 24RHPSplitter92.395.5-10.181Double play
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.298.525.578Double
Sep 24LHPSinker96.251.5-53.240Single
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8102.8321.233Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.897.00.374Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.886.020.528Single
Sep 23RHPFastball89.9101.36.562Single
Sep 22RHPSlider88.195.833.285Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24423000
Sep 23533011
Sep 22400003
Sep 20411000
Sep 19111000
Sep 18411002
Sep 16300001
Aug 29400000
Aug 28400002

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
JJ Wetherholt bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
JJ Wetherholt with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.1%44.1%
Whiff%18.9%22.7%
Contact%81.1%77.3%
Chase%37.5%38.2%
wOBA.225.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.9%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.316
K%18.6%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%7.2%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%31.1%
Avg EV89.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

103 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.335against pitches like his
RV/100-0.35
Hard-hit%31.4%
K%19.6%
BB%10.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.JJ Wetherholt: every projection we've made →