MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 5José Fermín
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.336wOBA vs LHP.316xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%2.0trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .332 vs league .329 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .349 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .320 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .365 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. José Fermín: wOBA .338 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is José Fermín's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

José Fermín's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.9 mph at 65°Out: 86.5 mph at 77°Single: 95.9 mph at 14°Single: 77.5 mph at 15°Out: 95.7 mph at -3°Double: 92.2 mph at 18°Single: 83.6 mph at 11°Single: 99.7 mph at 1°Out: 84.9 mph at -28°Single: 76.6 mph at 27°Single: 73.4 mph at 12°Out: 88.9 mph at 18°Out: 101.3 mph at 18°Out: 92.1 mph at -30°Out: 75.0 mph at 66°Double: 96.5 mph at 13°Out: 86.3 mph at 23°Out: 99.9 mph at 6°Single: 91.3 mph at -5°Out: 69.2 mph at 73°Out: 96.8 mph at 32°Out: 74.6 mph at 3°Out: 93.6 mph at 29°Single: 79.8 mph at 10°Out: 73.4 mph at 13°Out: 86.8 mph at 42°Single: 98.7 mph at 5°Out: 71.9 mph at -1°Double: 95.9 mph at 24°Out: 84.7 mph at 2°Out: 63.2 mph at -46°Out: 69.4 mph at -8°Out: 86.4 mph at 54°Out: 78.9 mph at 31°Single: 98.3 mph at 3°Out: 30.8 mph at 28°Out: 79.2 mph at -25°Single: 96.9 mph at 1°Out: 96.8 mph at -11°Single: 95.2 mph at 12°
33% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.0%61.9%+1.1
2+ total bases34.5%33.2%+1.4
Home run7.4%6.3%+1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where José Fermín hits
José Fermín · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .567 on 3 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.308xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .437 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 16 pitches seen.324xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .406 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 11 pitches seen.276xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .235 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.279xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .207 on 13 PA) · league .385 · 31 pitches seen.292xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .439 on 8 PA) · league .340 · 19 pitches seen.380xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .202 on 8 PA) · league .273 · 24 pitches seen.245xwOBA .344 shrunk (raw .331 on 5 PA) · league .350 · 32 pitches seen.344xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .317 on 13 PA) · league .299 · 23 pitches seen.308xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .018 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 26 pitches seen.231xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .355 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 53 pitches seen.349xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .461 on 8 PA) · league .289 · 75 pitches seen.358xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .360 on 10 PA) · league .257 · 58 pitches seen.304
vs LHP · 405 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 23%17%Whiff 0% of 16 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 16%11%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 25%22%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 29%18%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 48%11%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 34%15%
vs LHP · 405 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 42% of 12 pitches · league 63%42%Swings at 56% of 16 pitches · league 71%56%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 64%55%Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 67%64%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 72%63%Swings at 38% of 24 pitches · league 59%38%Swings at 41% of 32 pitches · league 68%41%Swings at 83% of 23 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 35% of 26 pitches · league 30%35%Swings at 21% of 53 pitches · league 26%21%Swings at 24% of 75 pitches · league 31%24%Swings at 35% of 58 pitches · league 41%35%
vs LHP · 405 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

José Fermín against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.332.32911.8%20.0%5Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.349.34610.1%17.7%21About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.320.31812.0%21.0%13About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.365.3627.2%13.1%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.338.33617.4%27.8%13About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
José Fermín · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.444.444.444.400.26122.2%0.0%6.2%82.699.70.0%14.3%57.1%
Last 15 G1121.250.238.250.214.21523.8%0.0%15.0%84.399.90.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2043.275.279.400.288.26514.0%2.3%12.2%84.9107.25.6%33.3%30.6%
90 days4493.280.326.463.339.31711.8%7.5%10.7%85.6107.25.3%32.0%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 20%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.500.571.667.536.44614.3%14.3%23.1%89.695.90.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1327.400.444.550.443.34211.1%11.1%8.2%83.6101.30.0%30.0%55.0%
Last 30 G2662.278.323.352.340.26816.1%6.5%10.1%84.0101.30.0%27.7%42.6%
90 days57144.211.296.252.288.29413.9%9.7%10.7%86.0104.10.0%31.1%39.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 106 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.467.500.533.459.34218.8%6.2%13.8%85.599.70.0%25.0%58.3%
Last 15 G1548.325.354.400.343.28716.7%6.2%11.2%83.9101.30.0%27.8%47.2%
Last 30 G30105.277.305.372.319.26715.2%4.8%11.0%84.4107.22.4%30.1%37.3%
90 days68237.239.308.337.308.30313.1%8.9%10.7%85.9107.22.2%31.5%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 181 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
José Fermín · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating55Average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .322running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball92.570.965.003Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.386.577.009Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.795.914.877Single
Sep 23RHPFastball95.677.515.686Single
Sep 20RHPSinker93.895.7-3.291Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.792.218.560Double
Sep 20LHPChangeup79.683.611.435Single
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.399.71.446Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup86.084.9-28.051Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper81.776.627.433Single
Sep 19LHPChangeup83.673.412.280Single
Sep 19LHPSinker90.788.918.702Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 24100001
Sep 23422001
Sep 20323000
Sep 19633010
Sep 16200000
Sep 15312000
Sep 12500022
Sep 11511001
Sep 9411001

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
José Fermín bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
José Fermín with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%30.6%41.5%
Whiff%16.0%21.6%
Contact%84.0%78.4%
Chase%39.1%39.9%
wOBA.250.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes12.4%17.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.322
K%13.6%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%5.2%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%24.0%
Avg EV85.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

92 PA
wOBA.336
xwOBA vs this mix.316against pitches like his
RV/1000.40
Hard-hit%25.8%
K%12.3%
BB%8.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.José Fermín: every projection we've made →