MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 25, 2026
6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · STL · batting 7Masyn Winn
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.305wOBA vs LHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MILRobert Gasser
Throws leftBTB Stuff 94Stable
4.5projected K20%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Robert Gasser's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 24% usage, 80.7 mph, -15.2″ arm side, +4.3″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .326 vs league .329 (about even).Sweeper 24%Fastball: 24% usage, 93.2 mph, +7.3″ arm side, +14.4″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .343 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 24%Cutter: 20% usage, 88.9 mph, -2.5″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .315 vs league .318 (about even).Cutter 20%Sinker: 20% usage, 93.1 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .359 vs league .362 (about even).Sinker 20%Changeup: 11% usage, 88.7 mph, +17.5″ arm side, +0.5″ rise. Masyn Winn: wOBA .332 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Masyn Winn's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Masyn Winn's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 99.2 mph at 13°Out: 91.5 mph at 37°Double: 99.4 mph at 20°Out: 91.7 mph at 6°Out: 87.4 mph at -24°Out: 103.2 mph at 1°Single: 70.9 mph at 6°Out: 74.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 46°Out: 94.0 mph at 20°Out: 88.3 mph at -33°Single: 92.6 mph at 7°Out: 86.1 mph at -22°Out: 81.0 mph at 14°Out: 65.0 mph at -49°Single: 75.9 mph at 16°Out: 97.0 mph at 41°Out: 88.9 mph at 43°Single: 99.6 mph at -6°Double: 99.2 mph at -5°Out: 94.0 mph at 35°Out: 92.5 mph at -20°Out: 100.8 mph at 35°Out: 74.3 mph at 6°Out: 98.4 mph at -7°Out: 69.7 mph at -45°Out: 97.3 mph at 25°Out: 54.6 mph at -71°Out: 91.4 mph at -6°Double: 105.0 mph at 5°Home run: 105.6 mph at 23°Out: 84.8 mph at 39°Double: 91.2 mph at 22°Out: 91.4 mph at 66°Single: 97.2 mph at 3°Single: 76.2 mph at 53°Out: 63.4 mph at -58°Out: 87.9 mph at 24°Out: 103.1 mph at 25°Out: 76.6 mph at 63°
33% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.2%55.0%+1.2
2+ total bases28.7%27.4%+1.3
Home run6.6%5.5%+1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Masyn Winn hits
Masyn Winn · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .042 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.214xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 9 pitches seenxwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .228 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 13 pitches seen.252xwOBA .416 shrunk (raw .600 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 13 pitches seen.416xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .024 on 4 PA) · league .385 · 22 pitches seen.295xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .364 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 15 pitches seen.348xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .207 on 4 PA) · league .273 · 11 pitches seen.257xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .359 on 8 PA) · league .350 · 13 pitches seen.354xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .396 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 14 pitches seen.323xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .224 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 18 pitches seen.296xwOBA .450 shrunk (raw .698 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 37 pitches seen.450xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .155 on 15 PA) · league .289 · 45 pitches seen.215xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .234 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 47 pitches seen.248
vs LHP · 265 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 21%50%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 16%25%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 25%25%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 48%45%Whiff 63% of 16 swings · league 34%63%
vs LHP · 265 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 63%75%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 71%44%Swings at 23% of 13 pitches · league 64%23%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 67%69%Swings at 55% of 22 pitches · league 76%55%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 72%53%Swings at 36% of 11 pitches · league 59%36%Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 22% of 18 pitches · league 30%22%Swings at 5% of 37 pitches · league 26%5%Swings at 44% of 45 pitches · league 31%44%Swings at 34% of 47 pitches · league 41%34%
vs LHP · 265 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Masyn Winn against each of Robert Gasser's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper24%80.7-15″ / +4″.326.32924.0%20.0%4Little history vs this shape
Fastball24%93.2+7″ / +14″.343.34617.1%17.7%14About league average vs these
Cutter20%88.9-3″ / +7″.315.31820.7%21.0%12About league average vs these
Sinker20%93.1+16″ / +7″.359.36212.7%13.1%12About league average vs these
Changeup11%88.7+18″ / +1″.332.33632.5%27.8%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Masyn Winn · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.000.250.000.288.32825.0%25.0%33.3%88.299.20.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1017.200.294.533.400.37023.5%11.8%29.6%91.7105.69.1%36.4%27.3%
Last 30 G1832.207.281.379.319.31428.1%9.4%29.8%90.6105.65.0%25.0%35.0%
90 days3365.237.308.339.305.30827.7%9.2%27.9%89.4108.42.4%31.7%43.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 29%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.300.259.19954.5%9.1%34.8%91.3103.20.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1535.188.257.250.234.23728.6%8.6%23.3%87.6103.20.0%31.8%22.7%
Last 30 G3079.183.253.254.232.26730.4%8.9%25.2%88.0104.84.2%33.3%29.2%
90 days58163.210.294.280.270.28823.9%10.4%23.7%89.3105.03.8%39.6%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 106 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 17%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.125.263.188.271.25442.1%15.8%34.3%89.7103.20.0%37.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1552.191.269.340.288.28026.9%9.6%25.3%89.0105.63.0%33.3%24.2%
Last 30 G30111.190.261.290.257.28129.7%9.0%26.4%88.8105.64.4%30.9%30.9%
90 days60228.218.298.297.280.29325.0%10.1%24.9%89.3108.43.4%37.4%34.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 20%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
Masyn Winn · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating25Below average
Last 100 pitches6trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.279 / .290results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup89.199.213.902Out
Sep 24LHPSweeper82.191.537.013Out
Sep 23RHPCutter92.799.420.401Double
Sep 22RHPFastball97.191.76.429Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.687.4-24.078Out
Sep 19RHPFastball97.2103.21.453Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.870.96.209Single
Sep 19LHPSweeper82.674.55.238Error
Sep 18RHPCurveball86.291.046.014Out
Sep 18RHPFastball97.294.020.342Out
Sep 15RHPSinker93.188.3-33.055Out
Sep 15RHPFastball93.792.67.481Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400012
Sep 24300002
Sep 23412012
Sep 22300011
Sep 19511001
Sep 18200000
Sep 15311000
Sep 14300010
Sep 13311000
Sep 12423002

Two strikes

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPwith two strikes
Robert Gasser with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper24%36%28.0%20.3%20.5%
Fastball24%30%15.2%15.5%18.6%
Sinker20%16%0.0%15.9%17.7%
Changeup11%9%21.7%17.1%18.3%
Cutter20%7%0.0%3.7%17.9%
Slider1%1%0.0%0.0%21.6%
Masyn Winn bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Masyn Winn with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%41.5%
Whiff%24.1%21.6%
Contact%75.9%78.4%
Chase%40.5%39.9%
wOBA.230.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.0%17.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%24.0%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%10.0%
Barrel%2.6%
Hard-hit%24.4%
Avg EV89.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

63 PA
wOBA.305
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/100-0.26
Hard-hit%21.3%
K%26.8%
BB%9.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Robert GasserLHP · MIL vs STL
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.1%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.5%12%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.5%5%89+ strikeouts: 3.9%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.2%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%9.1%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff94
Location98
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper24%10180.712.7%
Fastball24%9993.110.7%
Cutter20%8088.87.1%
Sinker20%9593.13.4%
Changeup11%8888.512.5%
Slider1%9883.90.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 191078%8%27%.238
Sep 138925%11%25%.222
Sep 78325%12%10%.312

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Robert Gasser MIL · LHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Masyn Winn: every projection we've made →