MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 3Corey Seager
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.330wOBA vs RHP.335xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .356 vs league .357 (about even).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .323 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .323 vs league .324 (about even).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .312 vs league .313 (about even).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .352 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Corey Seager: wOBA .360 vs league .362 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Corey Seager's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Corey Seager's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.9 mph at -15°Out: 106.9 mph at 19°Single: 106.3 mph at 13°Out: 97.7 mph at 21°Home run: 107.5 mph at 24°Out: 95.6 mph at -15°Out: 79.2 mph at -31°Out: 70.8 mph at 46°Out: 95.9 mph at -15°Out: 89.2 mph at 6°Out: 83.0 mph at 5°Out: 92.5 mph at 32°Out: 82.2 mph at 72°Out: 104.0 mph at 4°Out: 74.5 mph at 13°Single: 103.4 mph at 9°Double: 107.2 mph at 22°Out: 105.6 mph at 16°Out: 89.6 mph at -20°Out: 94.1 mph at 36°Out: 86.8 mph at -5°Single: 100.1 mph at 11°Out: 92.9 mph at 29°Single: 78.4 mph at 18°Single: 67.2 mph at 45°Out: 83.1 mph at 53°Single: 108.8 mph at 1°Single: 106.3 mph at -5°Out: 85.8 mph at -14°Home run: 110.3 mph at 31°Out: 71.9 mph at -30°Single: 105.8 mph at -3°Double: 108.4 mph at 14°Out: 98.6 mph at -8°Out: 85.2 mph at 45°Out: 96.8 mph at -5°Out: 86.6 mph at -9°Out: 92.7 mph at -1°Out: 95.2 mph at -10°Out: 94.5 mph at 51°
48% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.6%66.7%+1.9
2+ total bases47.0%44.1%+2.8
Home run21.6%18.2%+3.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.4
Home run
Starter
+4.7
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Corey Seager hits
Corey Seager · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .180 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.239xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .442 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 17 pitches seen.357xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .422 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 12 pitches seen.303xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .267 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 36 pitches seen.303xwOBA .539 shrunk (raw .723 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 27 pitches seen.539xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .402 on 6 PA) · league .321 · 23 pitches seen.348xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .090 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 18 pitches seen.215xwOBA .384 shrunk (raw .412 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 24 pitches seen.384xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .194 on 8 PA) · league .292 · 17 pitches seen.253xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .349 on 6 PA) · league .377 · 69 pitches seen.368xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .344 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 29 pitches seen.295xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .297 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 78 pitches seen.281xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .340 on 16 PA) · league .274 · 96 pitches seen.312
vs RHP · 466 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 22%35%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 21% of 33 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 69% of 13 swings · league 28%69%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 24%21%Whiff 59% of 32 swings · league 32%59%Whiff 40% of 25 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 466 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 62%85%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 72%82%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 92% of 36 pitches · league 70%92%Swings at 96% of 27 pitches · league 76%96%Swings at 78% of 23 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 83% of 18 pitches · league 65%83%Swings at 88% of 24 pitches · league 68%88%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 60%82%Swings at 19% of 69 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 48% of 29 pitches · league 34%48%Swings at 41% of 78 pitches · league 40%41%Swings at 26% of 96 pitches · league 32%26%
vs RHP · 466 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Corey Seager against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.356.35721.6%16.6%32About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.323.32427.4%24.7%8Little history vs this shape
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.323.32425.7%21.0%26About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.312.31330.1%27.2%10About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.352.35318.8%14.3%30About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.360.36224.2%21.7%18About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Corey Seager · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.083.083.083.075.24325.0%0.0%18.8%91.4106.911.1%44.4%33.3%
Last 15 G1136.147.194.206.189.30219.4%5.6%25.7%93.7108.47.7%50.0%30.8%
Last 30 G2571.206.296.349.293.36819.7%11.3%27.7%93.3108.410.4%54.2%35.4%
90 days44122.239.320.367.318.34918.9%10.7%27.0%92.6108.49.4%54.1%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 25%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.444.222.28455.6%0.0%43.5%88.8107.525.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1130.310.333.621.403.34833.3%0.0%33.3%90.1110.315.8%36.8%42.1%
Last 30 G2562.281.323.544.380.36524.2%3.2%29.4%91.1110.316.3%44.2%48.8%
90 days4092.301.359.578.406.39123.9%6.5%30.1%92.2110.317.7%48.4%48.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 27%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.095.095.238.138.26038.1%0.0%29.1%90.6107.515.4%46.2%38.5%
Last 15 G1566.222.258.397.288.32325.8%3.0%29.1%92.2110.311.1%44.4%35.6%
Last 30 G30133.242.308.442.334.36721.8%7.5%28.5%92.3110.313.2%49.5%41.8%
90 days50214.266.336.458.356.36721.0%8.9%28.2%92.4110.312.9%51.7%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 26%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
Corey Seager · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches79trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.365 / .385running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper81.570.9-15.035Out
Sep 25RHPSinker92.6106.919.884Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper79.5106.313.883Single
Sep 24LHPCurveball76.797.721.371Out
Sep 24LHPFastball96.5107.5241.915Home run
Sep 23RHPChangeup86.395.6-15.130Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.279.2-31.035Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper76.370.846.231Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.395.9-15.130Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball75.189.26.414Force out
Sep 20RHPCurveball88.083.05.257Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker96.492.532.178Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24414102
Sep 23400002
Sep 22400003
Sep 20500000
Sep 19411001
Sep 18512011
Sep 17411001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15422001

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Corey Seager bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Corey Seager with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.5%41.0%
Whiff%20.2%21.3%
Contact%79.8%78.7%
Chase%33.5%39.6%
wOBA.249.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.1%19.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.369
K%21.7%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%14.4%
Barrel%8.9%
Hard-hit%34.5%
Avg EV92.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

124 PA
wOBA.330
xwOBA vs this mix.335against pitches like his
RV/1000.07
Hard-hit%35.1%
K%21.3%
BB%9.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Corey Seager: every projection we've made →