MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 5Ezequiel Duran
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedCold
.310wOBA vs RHP.281xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .349 vs league .354 (about even).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .275 vs league .279 (about even).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .345 vs league .350 (about even).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .278 vs league .283 (about even).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .346 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Ezequiel Duran: wOBA .315 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ezequiel Duran's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ezequiel Duran's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 100.0 mph at -5°Out: 84.1 mph at 67°Out: 88.9 mph at 0°Out: 79.5 mph at -7°Out: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 89.6 mph at -24°Out: 84.5 mph at 62°Out: 104.4 mph at -2°Out: 95.1 mph at -16°Out: 97.2 mph at 36°Out: 90.8 mph at -2°Out: 80.1 mph at -48°Out: 95.9 mph at -23°Out: 94.4 mph at 30°Double: 90.1 mph at 15°Out: 87.7 mph at -27°Out: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 61.1 mph at 42°Out: 90.4 mph at 61°Out: 78.8 mph at 65°Out: 61.0 mph at -5°Out: 86.2 mph at -35°Single: 98.9 mph at 13°Single: 105.3 mph at 11°Out: 19.2 mph at 19°Single: 82.5 mph at -19°Single: 96.3 mph at 2°Out: 55.2 mph at 42°Single: 105.5 mph at 13°Out: 98.8 mph at 18°Out: 87.4 mph at 1°Out: 45.5 mph at 35°Out: 97.4 mph at -2°Out: 72.1 mph at -29°Out: 93.0 mph at 34°Out: 97.2 mph at 47°Out: 95.6 mph at 22°Out: 108.2 mph at 1°Out: 82.4 mph at 25°Out: 105.6 mph at -3°
40% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.4%60.1%+1.2
2+ total bases34.3%33.1%+1.2
Home run10.4%9.8%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ezequiel Duran hits
Ezequiel Duran · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .175 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.227xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .548 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 35 pitches seen.378xwOBA .180 shrunk (raw .039 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 35 pitches seen.180xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .280 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 48 pitches seen.306xwOBA .323 shrunk (raw .284 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 68 pitches seen.323xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .234 on 26 PA) · league .321 · 53 pitches seen.261xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .506 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 19 pitches seen.403xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .253 on 15 PA) · league .351 · 41 pitches seen.297xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .336 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 46 pitches seen.316xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .410 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 97 pitches seen.395xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .324 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 92 pitches seen.300xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .185 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 41 pitches seen.228xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .200 on 49 PA) · league .274 · 231 pitches seen.215
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 22%22%Whiff 24% of 25 swings · league 20%24%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 19%35%Whiff 5% of 38 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 9% of 54 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 19% of 43 swings · league 11%19%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 13%6%Whiff 13% of 31 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 14% of 28 swings · league 24%14%Whiff 20% of 25 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 57% of 91 swings · league 49%57%
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 85% of 27 pitches · league 62%85%Swings at 71% of 35 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 66% of 35 pitches · league 66%66%Swings at 79% of 48 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 79% of 68 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 81% of 53 pitches · league 70%81%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 65%79%Swings at 83% of 41 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 67% of 46 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 30% of 97 pitches · league 24%30%Swings at 30% of 92 pitches · league 34%30%Swings at 61% of 41 pitches · league 40%61%Swings at 39% of 231 pitches · league 32%39%
vs RHP · 833 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ezequiel Duran against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.349.35412.0%13.1%56About league average vs these
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.275.27934.6%31.6%27About league average vs these
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.345.35013.9%16.1%32About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.278.28331.9%28.6%25About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.346.35110.4%11.3%47About league average vs these
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.315.32032.3%28.8%38About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ezequiel Duran · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.077.143.077.123.18735.7%7.1%24.0%91.1100.00.0%28.6%0.0%
Last 15 G1543.100.140.125.127.20125.6%2.3%16.5%82.7108.20.0%31.0%20.7%
Last 30 G2981.176.235.297.262.24624.7%6.2%22.0%86.0108.21.9%35.2%27.8%
90 days75214.227.271.404.302.27025.2%5.1%23.3%86.5110.25.5%33.1%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 21%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.167.000.117.25916.7%16.7%5.9%94.0104.40.0%75.0%0.0%
Last 15 G818.188.278.188.278.36916.7%11.1%19.1%94.2105.60.0%61.5%38.5%
Last 30 G2046.308.413.462.409.38919.6%13.0%23.5%91.5110.96.7%56.7%40.0%
90 days48104.307.404.466.400.35620.2%12.5%24.8%91.0110.94.4%51.5%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 19%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.056.150.056.121.21030.0%10.0%16.7%92.2104.40.0%45.5%0.0%
Last 15 G1561.125.180.143.172.25223.0%4.9%17.4%86.3108.20.0%40.5%26.2%
Last 30 G30127.221.299.354.315.29822.8%8.7%22.6%88.0110.93.6%42.9%32.1%
90 days77318.252.314.423.334.29823.6%7.5%23.8%87.9110.95.2%39.0%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 213 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%
Ezequiel Duran · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating53Average
Last 100 pitches18trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.336 / .319running 17 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper78.7100.0-5.316Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper78.884.167.009Out
Sep 25RHPSinker94.888.90.302Double play
Sep 24LHPSlider84.379.5-7.091Out
Sep 23RHPSlider83.799.633.729Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.389.6-24.076Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.284.562.016Out
Sep 23LHPSinker96.3104.4-2.372Force out
Sep 22LHPFastball90.295.1-16.133Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper75.397.236.261Out
Sep 20RHPSinker82.790.8-2.280Out
Sep 19RHPSinker94.780.1-48.141Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24400002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400012
Sep 19400002
Sep 18512000
Sep 17400001
Sep 16411002
Sep 15322000

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Ezequiel Duran bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ezequiel Duran with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.4%42.4%
Whiff%21.4%22.2%
Contact%78.6%77.8%
Chase%37.6%39.9%
wOBA.249.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.6%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%23.5%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%12.2%
Barrel%3.6%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV87.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

212 PA
wOBA.310
xwOBA vs this mix.281against pitches like his
RV/1000.05
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%24.6%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ezequiel Duran: every projection we've made →