MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TEX · batting 2Josh Jung
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.340wOBA vs RHP.325xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MINJoe Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 89Trending Up
5.3projected K21%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Joe Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 44% usage, 93.8 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .357 vs league .354 (about even).Fastball 44%Sweeper: 19% usage, 80.9 mph, -13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .282 vs league .279 (about even).Sweeper 19%Splitter: 14% usage, 88.1 mph, +16.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .352 vs league .350 (about even).Splitter 14%Curveball: 10% usage, 79.8 mph, -10.4″ arm side, -8.3″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .285 vs league .283 (about even).Curveball 10%Sinker: 7% usage, 93.4 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +9.7″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .354 vs league .351 (about even).Sinker 7%Slider: 6% usage, 87.2 mph, -0.2″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Josh Jung: wOBA .323 vs league .320 (about even).Slider 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Josh Jung's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Josh Jung's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 96.5 mph at 20°Single: 91.6 mph at 6°Home run: 104.3 mph at 27°Out: 95.9 mph at -23°Out: 92.5 mph at 41°Out: 84.1 mph at -10°Single: 100.1 mph at 2°Out: 96.0 mph at 22°Double: 95.9 mph at 8°Out: 79.3 mph at 1°Home run: 100.2 mph at 28°Out: 95.2 mph at -2°Single: 98.6 mph at -16°Out: 95.7 mph at -9°Out: 75.0 mph at 10°Out: 104.8 mph at 22°Out: 67.1 mph at 43°Home run: 98.1 mph at 31°Out: 102.3 mph at -10°Double: 100.3 mph at 26°Out: 93.7 mph at 28°Double: 93.4 mph at 18°Single: 101.6 mph at 10°Out: 98.8 mph at 27°Out: 86.9 mph at 48°Out: 97.1 mph at -12°Single: 96.0 mph at 18°Single: 73.8 mph at 5°Out: 67.5 mph at -2°Out: 79.3 mph at 55°Out: 83.9 mph at 32°Single: 102.3 mph at 13°Out: 91.4 mph at 30°Out: 87.1 mph at -8°Single: 102.6 mph at 13°Single: 103.5 mph at 11°Out: 74.0 mph at -37°Out: 88.0 mph at 36°Single: 99.6 mph at 6°Out: 96.9 mph at 18°
57% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.9%66.8%+1.1
2+ total bases41.1%40.1%+1.1
Home run13.2%12.7%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Josh Jung hits
Josh Jung · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seenxwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .518 on 3 PA) · league .307 · 11 pitches seen.349xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .343 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 16 pitches seen.292xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .388 on 7 PA) · league .342 · 14 pitches seen.359xwOBA .434 shrunk (raw .492 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 19 pitches seen.434xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .234 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 17 pitches seen.295xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .070 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 8 pitches seen.274xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .199 on 11 PA) · league .351 · 18 pitches seen.278xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .084 on 6 PA) · league .292 · 12 pitches seen.223xwOBA .447 shrunk (raw .729 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 15 pitches seen.447xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .349 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.299xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.243xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .345 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 80 pitches seen.300
vs RHP · 260 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 22%17%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 10%22%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 13%20%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 24%60%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 53% of 17 swings · league 49%53%
vs RHP · 260 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 62%75%Swings at 91% of 11 pitches · league 72%91%Swings at 94% of 16 pitches · league 66%94%Swings at 64% of 14 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 76%68%Swings at 71% of 17 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 56% of 18 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 60%58%Swings at 47% of 15 pitches · league 24%47%Swings at 22% of 23 pitches · league 34%22%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 40%63%Swings at 21% of 80 pitches · league 32%21%
vs RHP · 260 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Josh Jung against each of Joe Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball44%93.8+14″ / +13″.357.35412.6%13.1%24About league average vs these
Sweeper19%80.9-14″ / +1″.282.27930.3%31.6%8Little history vs this shape
Splitter14%88.1+16″ / +5″.352.35015.9%16.1%15About league average vs these
Curveball10%79.8-10″ / -8″.285.28327.6%28.6%10About league average vs these
Sinker7%93.4+17″ / +10″.354.35110.4%11.3%18About league average vs these
Slider6%87.2-0″ / +6″.323.32027.3%28.8%14About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Josh Jung · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.111.200.111.160.15640.0%0.0%36.8%88.795.90.0%20.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1233.179.273.393.288.30321.2%6.1%26.7%91.5104.89.1%45.5%40.9%
Last 30 G2468.220.309.441.337.32823.5%7.4%22.5%92.1106.711.4%50.0%43.2%
90 days2468.220.309.441.337.32823.5%7.4%22.5%92.1106.711.4%50.0%43.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 25%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.667.7141.500.871.56114.3%14.3%0.0%98.6104.320.0%100.0%80.0%
Last 15 G1026.480.500.760.538.40411.5%3.8%5.8%93.2104.313.6%68.2%54.5%
Last 30 G1945.475.533.725.537.41913.3%11.1%10.4%93.5106.711.8%64.7%55.9%
90 days1945.475.533.725.537.41913.3%11.1%10.4%93.5106.711.8%64.7%55.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 34 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 35%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.333.412.667.453.32329.4%5.9%21.2%93.6104.310.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1559.321.373.566.398.34816.9%5.1%17.0%92.4104.811.4%56.8%47.7%
Last 30 G27113.323.398.556.416.36419.5%8.8%18.0%92.7106.711.5%56.4%48.7%
90 days27113.323.398.556.416.36419.5%8.8%18.0%92.7106.711.5%56.4%48.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 78 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 30%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 6%
Josh Jung · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating94Top tier
Last 100 pitches97steady
wOBA / xwOBA.414 / .382running 33 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCutter88.596.520.360Double
Sep 24RHPCutter89.491.66.429Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper77.9104.3271.646Home run
Sep 23RHPSinker94.895.9-23.101Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball80.392.541.022Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.784.1-10.106Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.8100.12.432Single
Sep 22LHPFastball90.096.022.247Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.695.98.544Double
Sep 20RHPChangeup84.079.31.171Force out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.7100.228.939Home run
Sep 19RHPSlider73.495.2-2.278Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25100000
Sep 24437110
Sep 23411000
Sep 22412002
Sep 20400003
Sep 19414101
Sep 18511011
Sep 17414100
Sep 16535000
Sep 15400002

Two strikes

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Joe Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball44%41%13.2%15.9%18.0%
Curveball10%21%24.1%14.0%20.0%
Sweeper19%21%33.3%23.2%19.3%
Splitter14%11%11.1%10.0%19.0%
Sinker7%4%0.0%9.1%17.0%
Slider6%2%0.0%0.0%21.1%
Josh Jung bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Josh Jung with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.4%42.4%
Whiff%20.9%22.2%
Contact%79.1%77.8%
Chase%33.7%39.9%
wOBA.233.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%19.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.349
K%22.2%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%9.6%
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%34.2%
Avg EV90.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

72 PA
wOBA.340
xwOBA vs this mix.325against pitches like his
RV/1001.16
Hard-hit%31.6%
K%23.1%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Joe RyanRHP · MIN vs TEX
5.3projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 22.2%22%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 15.3%15%67 strikeouts: 11.7%12%78 strikeouts: 7.9%8%89+ strikeouts: 9.4%9%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 29% (red bars) · under: 71%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.5%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo88.6
BTB Stuff89
Location105
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%10393.79.3%
Sweeper19%8280.919.2%
Splitter14%6188.112.1%
Curveball10%8679.710.7%
Sinker7%8993.55.7%
Slider6%8987.312.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199921%18%13%.396
Sep 13845%6%36%.507
Sep 76637%18%5%.395

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Joe Ryan MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Josh Jung: every projection we've made →