MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 25, 2026
7:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIN · batting 9Ryan Kreidler
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.238wOBA vs RHP.257xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · TEXJacob deGrom
Throws rightBTB Stuff 115Trending Up
5.8projected K31%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob deGrom's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 97.6 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +16.7″ rise. Ryan Kreidler: wOBA .319 vs league .340 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 41%Slider: 34% usage, 91.8 mph, -4.2″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Ryan Kreidler: wOBA .270 vs league .290 (pitcher's edge).Slider 34%Changeup: 13% usage, 89.7 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +3.4″ rise. Ryan Kreidler: wOBA .263 vs league .283 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 13%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.6 mph, -11.9″ arm side, -4.9″ rise. Ryan Kreidler: wOBA .266 vs league .286 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 7%Sinker: 5% usage, 96.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +11.2″ rise. Ryan Kreidler: wOBA .324 vs league .345 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ryan Kreidler's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ryan Kreidler's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 43.2 mph at -66°Out: 98.0 mph at -4°Single: 89.6 mph at 10°Out: 96.6 mph at -2°Out: 68.0 mph at 2°Out: 92.0 mph at 4°Out: 66.5 mph at 43°Home run: 113.1 mph at 22°Out: 86.6 mph at -21°Home run: 102.7 mph at 28°Out: 88.8 mph at 54°Out: 79.7 mph at 37°Single: 86.6 mph at -1°Out: 87.5 mph at -7°Out: 88.0 mph at -37°Out: 95.6 mph at 38°Out: 100.0 mph at 9°Double: 102.2 mph at 14°Out: 105.8 mph at 7°Out: 84.9 mph at 51°Out: 82.3 mph at 35°Out: 97.2 mph at 27°Out: 101.4 mph at -9°Out: 98.8 mph at 25°Home run: 104.0 mph at 43°Out: 19.0 mph at -84°Out: 94.5 mph at 61°Out: 84.4 mph at 34°Out: 82.1 mph at 38°Out: 79.5 mph at 5°Out: 87.8 mph at 70°Out: 49.9 mph at 18°Out: 95.3 mph at 38°Single: 86.8 mph at 1°Out: 78.2 mph at -3°Single: 108.1 mph at 9°Out: 88.7 mph at 70°Single: 28.3 mph at -26°Out: 66.6 mph at -1°Single: 101.4 mph at 1°
38% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit47.3%50.1%-2.8
2+ total bases24.5%26.5%-2.0
Home run7.8%9.2%-1.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
-0.8
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ryan Kreidler hits
Ryan Kreidler · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .097 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.222xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .363 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 20 pitches seen.329xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .004 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.211xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .425 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 24 pitches seen.387xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .318 on 8 PA) · league .386 · 23 pitches seen.359xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .233 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 22 pitches seen.281xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .030 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.268xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .278 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 23 pitches seen.324xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .208 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 31 pitches seen.261xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .273 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 39 pitches seen.339xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .276 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.275xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .223 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 36 pitches seen.248xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .205 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 118 pitches seen.231
vs RHP · 403 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 22%10%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 20%19%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 0% of 22 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 13%35%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 50% of 16 swings · league 28%50%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 24%43%Whiff 44% of 16 swings · league 32%44%Whiff 56% of 36 swings · league 49%56%
vs RHP · 403 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 62%83%Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 72%80%Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 66%62%Swings at 92% of 24 pitches · league 70%92%Swings at 78% of 23 pitches · league 76%78%Swings at 64% of 22 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 50% of 12 pitches · league 65%50%Swings at 74% of 23 pitches · league 68%74%Swings at 52% of 31 pitches · league 60%52%Swings at 41% of 39 pitches · league 24%41%Swings at 23% of 30 pitches · league 34%23%Swings at 44% of 36 pitches · league 40%44%Swings at 31% of 118 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 403 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ryan Kreidler against each of Jacob deGrom's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%97.6+9″ / +17″.319.34025.2%20.3%23About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider34%91.8-4″ / +4″.270.29035.2%30.8%15About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup13%89.7+14″ / +3″.263.28335.5%29.7%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball7%80.6-12″ / -5″.266.28632.0%27.8%15About league average vs these
Sinker5%96.6+15″ / +11″.324.34515.6%12.1%29About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ryan Kreidler · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.222.300.222.250.31720.0%10.0%9.1%79.198.00.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 15 G1227.130.259.130.204.24237.0%14.8%30.2%84.3100.00.0%30.8%15.4%
Last 30 G2352.130.216.130.210.26232.7%9.6%28.3%85.2102.56.7%36.7%13.3%
90 days42103.168.225.253.235.25830.1%6.8%29.2%84.0109.57.7%30.8%24.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 65 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 11%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11–1.000–.700.6980.0%100.0%––––––
Last 15 G712.333.5001.111.612.58416.7%16.7%26.3%97.0113.128.6%57.1%42.9%
Last 30 G1633.214.333.571.380.35721.2%12.1%27.9%88.0113.19.5%42.9%33.3%
90 days3363.190.254.397.296.29720.6%6.3%25.2%89.2113.14.4%48.9%28.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 13%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.222.364.222.291.35218.2%18.2%9.1%79.198.00.0%28.6%14.3%
Last 15 G1539.188.333.406.329.34730.8%15.4%29.2%88.8113.110.0%40.0%25.0%
Last 30 G3085.162.262.297.277.29928.2%10.6%28.1%86.4113.17.8%39.2%21.6%
90 days55166.176.236.307.258.27326.5%6.6%27.7%86.2113.16.4%38.2%26.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 12%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 12%
Ryan Kreidler · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating21Poor
Last 100 pitches88trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.243 / .286running 42 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker98.143.2-66.246Single
Sep 23RHPSinker91.898.0-4.262Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.889.610.587Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper82.796.6-2.389Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.168.02.137Out
Sep 21RHPFastball96.092.04.483Out
Sep 21RHPSlider84.666.543.369Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.5113.1221.941Home run
Sep 19LHPFastball93.786.6-21.058Out
Sep 16LHPFastball94.2102.7281.423Home run
Sep 16LHPFastball94.188.854.005Out
Sep 15LHPChangeup77.479.737.018Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25311011
Sep 23100000
Sep 22311001
Sep 21300000
Sep 20100010
Sep 19514112
Sep 16514112
Sep 15100000
Sep 14411001
Sep 13300001

Two strikes

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider34%43%35.1%25.1%21.1%
Fastball41%39%22.8%20.7%18.0%
Changeup13%12%22.7%10.2%18.6%
Curveball7%5%38.5%23.8%20.0%
Sinker5%1%20.0%16.7%17.0%
Ryan Kreidler bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ryan Kreidler with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.8%42.4%
Whiff%24.5%22.2%
Contact%75.5%77.8%
Chase%40.8%39.9%
wOBA.218.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.1%24.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.260
K%27.6%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%13.5%
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%24.2%
Avg EV86.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

101 PA
wOBA.238
xwOBA vs this mix.257against pitches like his
RV/100-2.10
Hard-hit%21.2%
K%28.9%
BB%6.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN
5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 17.6%18%≤34 strikeouts: 14.4%14%45 strikeouts: 16.5%17%56 strikeouts: 15.9%16%67 strikeouts: 13.1%13%78 strikeouts: 9.4%9%89+ strikeouts: 13.1%13%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.0%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%14.7%
Velo93.3
BTB Stuff115
Location112
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball41%12397.612.7%
Slider34%12391.717.1%
Changeup13%8889.719.3%
Curveball7%9080.410.3%
Sinker5%9696.710.5%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 20829%9%22%.363
Sep 159238%14%33%.305
Sep 109263%21%16%.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ryan Kreidler: every projection we've made →