Jacob deGrom

TEX · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 20, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 7:10 PM CT

Jacob deGromRHP · TEX vs MIN

5.8projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.0 innings

Over 6.5: 36% (red bars) · under: 64%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%31.0%

BB%7.9%

Whiff%14.7%

Velo93.3

BTB Stuff115

Location112

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball41%12397.612.7%

Slider34%12391.717.1%

Changeup13%8889.719.3%

Curveball7%9080.410.3%

Sinker5%9696.710.5%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	82	9%	9%	22%	.363
Sep 15	92	38%	14%	33%	.305
Sep 10	92	63%	21%	16%	.047

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameTEX @ MIN →Target Field

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	41%	97.6	+8.6″	+16.7″
Slider	Breaking	34%	91.8	-4.2″	+3.6″
Changeup	Offspeed	13%	89.7	+13.8″	+3.4″
Curveball	Breaking	7%	80.6	-11.9″	-4.9″
Sinker	Hard	5%	96.6	+15.2″	+11.2″

The lineup he faces

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Luke Keaschall13%

2Brooks Lee13%

3Kody Clemens22%

4Josh Bell19%

5Ryan Jeffers20%

6Walker Jenkins18%

7Royce Lewis24%

8Emmanuel Rodriguez30%

9Ryan Kreidler29%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Jacob deGrom TEX · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+9 pts

Fastball-2 pts

Changeup-2 pts

Curveball-2 pts

Sinker-3 pts

Jacob deGrom with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	34%	43%	35.1%	25.1%	21.1%
Fastball	41%	39%	22.8%	20.7%	18.0%
Changeup	13%	12%	22.7%	10.2%	18.6%
Curveball	7%	5%	38.5%	23.8%	20.0%
Sinker	5%	1%	20.0%	16.7%	17.0%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts2BTB expected 6.3 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line0 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	MIN	6.0	6.5	39.5%	47.4%	not settled
Sep 20	TOR	6.3	5.5	59.1%	52.6%	2