MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 2Dustin Harris
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%2.4trips vs this hitter
Dustin Harris's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 85.6 mph at 36°Out: 94.5 mph at -20°Out: 32.6 mph at -49°Out: 68.8 mph at 5°Out: 85.9 mph at -8°Out: 79.2 mph at -12°Out: 98.9 mph at -10°Out: 94.1 mph at 66°Single: 100.9 mph at 19°Out: 92.0 mph at 46°Out: 93.2 mph at 77°Out: 66.1 mph at 11°Double: 84.0 mph at 21°Out: 92.7 mph at 53°Out: 86.2 mph at -10°Single: 88.8 mph at 0°Single: 53.9 mph at -60°Out: 92.4 mph at 48°Out: 80.3 mph at 46°Single: 80.7 mph at 22°Single: 90.8 mph at 5°Single: 84.3 mph at 21°Triple: 98.5 mph at 29°Out: 99.2 mph at 20°Single: 94.9 mph at 12°Out: 89.1 mph at 1°Single: 62.6 mph at -15°Out: 77.4 mph at -3°Out: 96.1 mph at 11°Out: 68.9 mph at 60°Double: 105.6 mph at 17°Out: 50.6 mph at -19°Out: 66.1 mph at 1°Out: 45.6 mph at -71°Single: 97.5 mph at 17°Out: 99.0 mph at 18°Single: 93.9 mph at 2°Out: 80.0 mph at 9°Out: 87.4 mph at 69°Out: 82.5 mph at -19°
20% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%63.1%-0.4
2+ total bases34.2%34.4%-0.2
Home run8.3%7.9%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dustin Harris · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.118.158.176.197.16421.1%0.0%12.5%82.9100.90.0%14.3%21.4%
Last 15 G1553.286.321.408.334.28011.3%3.8%17.4%83.1105.64.5%20.5%34.1%
Last 30 G2376.314.347.414.349.28613.2%3.9%20.6%82.8105.63.2%21.0%37.1%
90 days2376.314.347.414.349.28613.2%3.9%20.6%82.8105.63.2%21.0%37.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 62 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.500.000.350.4290.0%0.0%16.7%94.594.50.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G79.167.333.167.256.26533.3%11.1%23.5%93.799.00.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G810.286.400.286.320.32030.0%10.0%21.1%87.999.00.0%20.0%40.0%
90 days810.286.400.286.320.32030.0%10.0%21.1%87.999.00.0%20.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.111.190.167.212.18919.0%0.0%13.2%83.6100.90.0%13.3%20.0%
Last 15 G1562.273.323.382.323.27814.5%4.8%18.3%84.0105.64.2%20.8%33.3%
Last 30 G2386.312.353.403.345.29015.1%4.7%20.6%83.2105.63.0%20.9%37.3%
90 days2386.312.353.403.345.29015.1%4.7%20.6%83.2105.63.0%20.9%37.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 27%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
Dustin Harris · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating23Poor
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .287running 44 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSlider89.685.636.015Sac fly
Sep 24LHPSlider87.894.5-20.129Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball76.432.6-49.287Fielder's choice
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.968.85.195Fielder's choice
Sep 23RHPSplitter90.885.9-8.100Force out
Sep 22RHPSinker97.079.2-12.076Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.698.9-10.251Force out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.794.166.008Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.2100.919.468Single
Sep 20RHPFastball95.192.046.012Out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.793.277.012Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.066.111.229Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23500000
Sep 22300001
Sep 20411000
Sep 19512001
Sep 18522002
Sep 17533001
Sep 16524010
Sep 15211000
Sep 14512010

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dustin Harris: every projection we've made →