The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 76°F · Wind in · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 95 · HR 105 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
ARI starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 89 | 25% | 6% | 33% | .217 |
| Sep 15 | 92 | 5% | 7% | 27% | .436 |
| Sep 9 | 60 | 33% | 10% | 17% | .433 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Walker Buehler's pitches | ARI lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Cutter | 24% | 90.7 | 116 | 5.6% | -1.92 | .345 | 9.2% | 23.4% | +0.81 |
| Sinker | 23% | 94.3 | 89 | 5.4% | 2.68 | .342 | 3.9% | 32.3% | -0.12 |
| Fastball | 19% | 94.1 | 86 | 7.1% | 0.03 | .341 | 7.5% | 27.8% | +0.32 |
| Slider | 11% | 87.1 | 105 | 9.9% | -0.57 | .355 | 11.0% | 27.5% | +0.37 |
| Changeup | 11% | 89.4 | 93 | 13.7% | -5.19 | .232 | 11.7% | 21.7% | +0.02 |
| Sweeper | 7% | 81.9 | 94 | 12.2% | -2.75 | .345 | 13.1% | 27.0% | +0.29 |
| Curveball | 6% | 78.8 | 89 | 14.7% | -0.94 | .267 | 11.2% | 21.6% | -0.07 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 23% | 19% | 10.5% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| Fastball | 19% | 17% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 18.0% |
| Cutter | 24% | 17% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 17.9% |
| Slider | 11% | 14% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 21.0% |
| Changeup | 11% | 13% | 25.9% | 20.0% | 18.6% |
| Sweeper | 7% | 10% | 25.0% | 12.8% | 19.3% |
| Curveball | 6% | 9% | 33.3% | 18.2% | 20.1% |
Diamondbacks lineup
Projected · facing Walker Buehler RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lars Nootbaar RF · bats L | 60.3% | 36.7% | 12.3% | 4.0 | +1.1 | .319 | B | Power | Normal |
| 2 | Ketel Marte 2B · bats S | 67.2% | 40.7% | 14.5% | 3.9 | +0.6 | .301 | B | Contact | Hot |
| 3 | Gabriel Moreno DH · bats R | 70.4% | 42.9% | 13.2% | 3.8 | +2.1 | .403 | A | Contact | Normal |
| 4 | Geraldo Perdomo SS · bats S | 65.0% | 34.4% | 6.7% | 3.8 | +0.6 | .349 | A | Contact | Hot |
| 5 | Pavin Smith 1B · bats L | 58.1% | 34.1% | 12.3% | 3.7 | +1.1 | .319 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Nolan Arenado 3B · bats R | 62.1% | 36.6% | 14.3% | 3.6 | +1.5 | .353 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Corbin Carroll RF · bats L | 58.3% | 35.8% | 15.8% | 3.5 | +0.8 | .296 | A | Power | Hot |
| 8 | James McCann C · bats R | 63.4% | 38.3% | 15.1% | 3.4 | +1.7 | .419 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Tim Tawa 1B · bats R | 58.1% | 33.5% | 13.2% | 3.3 | +1.2 | .334 | B | Power | Normal |
Padres lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · bats R | 69.1% | 44.9% | 20.5% | 4.0 | -0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Dustin Harris LF · bats L | 62.8% | 34.2% | 8.3% | 3.9 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Manny Machado 3B · bats R | 63.0% | 39.9% | 15.2% | 3.8 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Ty France 1B · bats R | 64.8% | 38.6% | 11.5% | 3.8 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Jackson Merrill CF · bats L | 68.5% | 46.3% | 20.1% | 3.7 | -0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts SS · bats R | 59.6% | 31.9% | 8.4% | 3.6 | -0.5 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Jake Cronenworth 2B · bats L | 54.8% | 26.0% | 6.5% | 3.5 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Samad Taylor DH · bats R | 53.6% | 26.9% | 8.6% | 3.4 | -0.4 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Ethan Salas C · bats L | 53.8% | 29.8% | 10.5% | 3.3 | -0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |