MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SD · batting 9Ethan Salas
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · ARITBD
Stable
4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ethan Salas's last 26 balls in playHit (8)Out (18)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 60.0 mph at 20°Single: 94.6 mph at 15°Single: 103.5 mph at -4°Out: 64.3 mph at 75°Single: 91.6 mph at 14°Out: 70.4 mph at 14°Out: 92.8 mph at 28°Single: 91.2 mph at -4°Out: 97.5 mph at -12°Out: 92.3 mph at 38°Out: 85.7 mph at 38°Out: 84.4 mph at 55°Out: 90.4 mph at 62°Home run: 105.8 mph at 33°Out: 92.1 mph at 50°Home run: 97.6 mph at 42°Triple: 94.7 mph at 36°Out: 96.0 mph at 56°Out: 91.9 mph at -6°Out: 60.4 mph at 21°Out: 71.3 mph at -17°Out: 100.7 mph at 47°Out: 92.5 mph at 25°Out: 90.7 mph at 74°Out: 93.4 mph at -3°Out: 99.4 mph at 32°
27% hit 95+ mph31% in the sweet spot31% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.8%54.1%-0.3
2+ total bases29.8%29.9%-0.1
Home run10.5%10.1%+0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
0.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ethan Salas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.444.500.444.478.28120.0%10.0%15.4%83.9103.50.0%16.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1430.241.267.517.341.18723.3%3.3%17.9%88.3105.84.8%28.6%23.8%
Last 30 G1430.241.267.517.341.18723.3%3.3%17.9%88.3105.84.8%28.6%23.8%
90 days1430.241.267.517.341.18723.3%3.3%17.9%88.3105.84.8%28.6%23.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 21 balls in play
Ground 24%Line drive 14%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 24%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.500.500.500.450.5720.0%0.0%20.0%82.594.60.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G57.143.143.143.129.31128.6%0.0%25.0%90.099.40.0%20.0%60.0%
Last 30 G57.143.143.143.129.31128.6%0.0%25.0%90.099.40.0%20.0%60.0%
90 days57.143.143.143.129.31128.6%0.0%25.0%90.099.40.0%20.0%60.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 20%Line drive 40%Fly ball 40%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.455.500.455.473.33416.7%8.3%16.7%83.6103.50.0%12.5%62.5%
Last 15 G1537.222.243.444.300.21124.3%2.7%19.1%88.7105.83.8%26.9%30.8%
Last 30 G1537.222.243.444.300.21124.3%2.7%19.1%88.7105.83.8%26.9%30.8%
90 days1537.222.243.444.300.21124.3%2.7%19.1%88.7105.83.8%26.9%30.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 26 balls in play
Ground 23%Line drive 19%Fly ball 39%Pop-up 19%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .215running 88 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball96.460.020.257Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper86.894.615.838Single
Sep 23RHPSinker95.2103.5-4.323Single
Sep 23RHPSplitter91.064.375.005Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.391.614.889Single
Sep 22LHPFastball93.670.414.306Out
Sep 20RHPCutter91.192.828.170Out
Sep 19RHPFastball98.791.2-4.185Single
Sep 18RHPSplitter85.697.5-12.141Out
Sep 18LHPSweeper84.992.338.045Out
Sep 18RHPSplitter82.685.738.005Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.384.455.025Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24322001
Sep 23211000
Sep 22211000
Sep 20400011
Sep 19111000
Sep 18400000
Sep 16428200
Sep 15100001
Sep 13213001
Sep 12200000

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ethan Salas: every projection we've made →