MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 3Gabriel Moreno
Bats rightTalent grade AContactNormal
.403wOBA vs RHP.343xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%2.5trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .351 vs league .316 (hitter's edge).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .391 vs league .355 (hitter's edge).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .389 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .292 vs league .257 (hitter's edge).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .322 vs league .287 (hitter's edge).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .307 vs league .272 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Gabriel Moreno: wOBA .327 vs league .292 (hitter's edge).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Gabriel Moreno's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Gabriel Moreno's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 99.1 mph at 51°Out: 90.5 mph at 41°Out: 80.8 mph at 62°Home run: 105.6 mph at 35°Out: 101.6 mph at -9°Single: 90.5 mph at 7°Out: 83.1 mph at 72°Single: 69.6 mph at 39°Single: 104.7 mph at 0°Out: 81.0 mph at -11°Out: 95.5 mph at 22°Double: 106.8 mph at 10°Out: 89.7 mph at 33°Out: 68.7 mph at -1°Single: 90.7 mph at 13°Out: 84.6 mph at 58°Single: 59.5 mph at -8°Out: 90.9 mph at 60°Out: 92.3 mph at -2°Single: 98.7 mph at 13°Out: 73.8 mph at 13°Out: 92.2 mph at -2°Out: 101.4 mph at -8°Home run: 101.1 mph at 25°Double: 107.1 mph at 4°Out: 92.6 mph at 39°Single: 84.0 mph at 12°Out: 80.3 mph at -19°Home run: 107.1 mph at 32°Single: 90.3 mph at -33°Out: 100.3 mph at -26°Single: 87.7 mph at 20°Out: 84.4 mph at 30°Home run: 97.5 mph at 30°Out: 69.8 mph at 63°Out: 74.0 mph at 3°Out: 69.9 mph at -32°Single: 104.6 mph at 4°Single: 86.5 mph at 19°Out: 78.0 mph at -29°
35% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.4%68.2%+2.1
2+ total bases42.9%40.3%+2.6
Home run13.2%11.2%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+1.7
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Gabriel Moreno against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.351.31613.3%25.4%33Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.391.3555.7%12.2%69Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.389.35310.2%19.4%60Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.292.25720.3%31.6%9Hits these better than most
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.322.28718.8%31.6%43Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.307.27218.6%31.1%23Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.327.29217.4%29.3%10Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Gabriel Moreno · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.353.400.529.395.3335.0%10.0%8.0%89.8105.65.9%35.3%17.6%
Last 15 G1555.404.473.681.486.36412.7%10.9%13.6%91.3107.17.3%41.5%29.3%
Last 30 G2897.321.402.607.436.33414.4%11.3%13.5%89.8110.011.3%40.8%29.6%
90 days70235.337.413.535.412.34613.6%11.5%12.4%88.7110.06.9%37.9%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 174 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.667.6671.000.717.5060.0%0.0%0.0%85.8106.80.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G613.231.231.308.235.2130.0%0.0%5.0%80.4106.80.0%23.1%15.4%
Last 30 G1536.281.333.344.303.3348.3%8.3%10.7%87.0106.83.3%36.7%36.7%
90 days4892.296.359.457.358.38413.0%9.8%13.2%88.4110.95.6%42.3%43.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.400.435.600.437.3564.3%8.7%7.1%89.2106.85.0%35.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1568.367.426.600.438.33510.3%8.8%12.0%88.7107.15.6%37.0%25.9%
Last 30 G30133.310.383.534.400.33412.8%10.5%12.8%89.0110.08.9%39.6%31.7%
90 days74327.325.398.512.397.35613.5%11.0%12.7%88.7110.96.5%39.2%36.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 245 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 23%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
Gabriel Moreno · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches83trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.400 / .368running 31 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases9/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball90.699.151.011Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup84.190.541.014Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.280.862.026Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.0105.6351.437Home run
Sep 24RHPCutter89.2101.6-9.257Out
Sep 23RHPSinker90.590.57.422Single
Sep 23RHPFastball91.483.172.003Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.369.639.574Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.9104.70.472Single
Sep 22LHPCurveball79.981.0-11.088Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.595.522.247Out
Sep 22LHPCutter87.4106.810.855Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24614101
Sep 23433000
Sep 22512000
Sep 20422010
Sep 19411010
Sep 18400001
Sep 16437100
Sep 15625121
Sep 14511011
Sep 13514101

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Gabriel Moreno bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Gabriel Moreno with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%30.7%42.4%
Whiff%15.3%22.2%
Contact%84.7%77.8%
Chase%42.1%39.8%
wOBA.270.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.0%21.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.383
K%14.4%
BB%10.8%
Whiff%5.8%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%28.9%
Avg EV88.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

231 PA
wOBA.403
xwOBA vs this mix.343against pitches like his
RV/1001.37
Hard-hit%27.3%
K%14.7%
BB%11.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Gabriel Moreno: every projection we've made →