MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 26, 2026
7:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup projected
Hitter · ARI · batting 4Geraldo Perdomo
Switch hitterTalent grade AContactHot
.349wOBA vs RHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SDWalker Buehler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 97Trending Down
3.4projected K19%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Walker Buehler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 24% usage, 90.7 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +10.6″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .369 vs league .360 (about even).Cutter 24%Sinker: 23% usage, 94.4 mph, +13.8″ arm side, +12.4″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .367 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 19% usage, 94.1 mph, +4.4″ arm side, +15.8″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .368 vs league .359 (about even).Fastball 19%Changeup: 11% usage, 89.5 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +2.5″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .268 vs league .258 (about even).Changeup 11%Slider: 11% usage, 87.3 mph, -8.0″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .336 vs league .327 (about even).Slider 11%Sweeper: 7% usage, 81.9 mph, -14.3″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .334 vs league .325 (about even).Sweeper 7%Curveball: 6% usage, 78.4 mph, -10.0″ arm side, -12.7″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .318 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Geraldo Perdomo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Geraldo Perdomo's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 82.6 mph at 62°Single: 97.3 mph at 10°Triple: 101.4 mph at 26°Out: 98.2 mph at 21°Out: 90.2 mph at -17°Out: 98.8 mph at -23°Out: 87.6 mph at 26°Out: 95.4 mph at 32°Single: 101.1 mph at -25°Single: 100.3 mph at 12°Single: 104.3 mph at 10°Out: 82.2 mph at -31°Single: 100.5 mph at 5°Triple: 103.5 mph at 18°Single: 27.1 mph at 34°Out: 99.0 mph at 41°Out: 89.0 mph at 48°Out: 72.3 mph at 50°Single: 83.3 mph at 16°Single: 101.5 mph at 10°Single: 101.6 mph at 14°Out: 90.1 mph at -36°Out: 51.2 mph at 36°Single: 86.9 mph at 15°Out: 56.4 mph at 26°Out: 19.6 mph at 48°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Single: 80.0 mph at 11°Single: 44.8 mph at -46°Out: 74.9 mph at 42°Out: 85.2 mph at 27°Out: 92.1 mph at 21°Single: 101.7 mph at 15°Out: 76.0 mph at 1°Out: 93.8 mph at -25°Out: 81.7 mph at 43°Out: 97.9 mph at 16°Out: 96.0 mph at -12°Out: 95.0 mph at -16°Out: 80.7 mph at 83°
45% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.0%64.4%+0.6
2+ total bases34.4%33.6%+0.8
Home run6.7%5.8%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
0.0
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Geraldo Perdomo against each of Walker Buehler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter24%90.7-5″ / +11″.369.36013.0%18.5%43About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker23%94.4+14″ / +12″.367.35810.5%15.3%70About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%94.1+4″ / +16″.368.35910.6%15.2%66About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup11%89.5+12″ / +3″.268.25814.2%27.8%22About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider11%87.3-8″ / +2″.336.32715.3%25.3%34About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper7%81.9-14″ / +3″.334.32514.6%24.5%8Little history vs this shape; rarely misses them
Curveball6%78.4-10″ / -13″.318.30916.8%27.6%7Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Geraldo Perdomo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.444.474.667.489.34121.1%5.3%11.5%90.8104.37.1%64.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1452.372.460.465.422.37817.3%13.5%12.0%84.4104.32.8%41.7%55.6%
Last 30 G2897.312.411.362.368.35516.5%13.4%12.7%84.6104.31.5%34.3%53.7%
90 days71241.271.372.399.359.33613.7%12.9%12.3%86.6104.32.9%30.5%43.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 174 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 29%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.250.250.225.07725.0%0.0%0.0%95.8101.10.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G816.231.312.308.278.18812.5%12.5%0.0%84.4101.10.0%41.7%8.3%
Last 30 G1531.308.367.346.328.2976.5%9.7%0.0%83.8103.00.0%42.3%23.1%
90 days4796.312.398.375.377.30311.5%12.5%6.3%84.2109.90.0%35.6%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 15%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 1%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.409.435.591.443.29521.7%4.3%9.1%91.7104.35.9%64.7%47.1%
Last 15 G1568.339.424.429.387.33216.2%13.2%8.7%84.4104.32.1%41.7%43.8%
Last 30 G30128.311.400.358.359.34114.1%12.5%9.4%84.4104.31.1%36.6%45.2%
90 days76337.283.380.392.364.32713.1%12.8%10.6%85.9109.92.0%32.0%39.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 247 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 25%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 7%
Geraldo Perdomo · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches77steady
wOBA / xwOBA.352 / .340results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPChangeup84.382.662.008Single
Sep 24RHPSinker92.497.310.708Single
Sep 24RHPFastball89.9101.4261.025Triple
Sep 24RHPCutter90.998.221.371Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.590.2-17.127Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.698.8-23.106Double play
Sep 22LHPFastball89.887.626.110Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.495.432.230Out
Sep 22LHPFastball90.6101.1-25.093Single
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.4100.312.916Single
Sep 22RHPCutter90.6104.310.839Single
Sep 20RHPSweeper83.782.2-31.053Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24635011
Sep 23400002
Sep 22533000
Sep 20424001
Sep 19411001
Sep 18422010
Sep 16411011
Sep 15511011
Sep 14500022
Sep 13433001

Two strikes

Walker Buehler SD · RHPwith two strikes
Walker Buehler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker23%19%10.5%19.2%16.9%
Fastball19%17%11.4%15.4%18.0%
Cutter24%17%4.9%7.7%17.9%
Slider11%14%17.9%14.8%21.0%
Changeup11%13%25.9%20.0%18.6%
Sweeper7%10%25.0%12.8%19.3%
Curveball6%9%33.3%18.2%20.1%
Geraldo Perdomo bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Geraldo Perdomo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%29.4%41.0%
Whiff%13.6%21.3%
Contact%86.4%78.7%
Chase%35.2%39.6%
wOBA.277.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes12.7%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.364
K%13.5%
BB%12.7%
Whiff%5.0%
Barrel%1.7%
Hard-hit%23.6%
Avg EV86.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

238 PA
wOBA.349
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/1000.73
Hard-hit%22.5%
K%14.8%
BB%12.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Walker BuehlerRHP · SD vs ARI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 20.7 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 56.8%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 12.4%12%56 strikeouts: 6.9%7%67 strikeouts: 3.4%3%78 strikeouts: 1.4%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.9%
BB%9.8%
Whiff%8.1%
Velo90.4
BTB Stuff97
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter24%11690.75.6%
Sinker23%8994.35.4%
Fastball19%8694.17.1%
Changeup11%9389.413.7%
Slider11%10587.19.9%
Sweeper7%9481.912.2%
Curveball6%8978.814.7%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208925%6%33%.217
Sep 15925%7%27%.436
Sep 96033%10%17%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Walker Buehler SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Geraldo Perdomo: every projection we've made →