Austin Riley vs TBD, Sep 26, 2026

← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026

3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected

Hitter · ATL · batting 8Austin Riley

Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal

–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA

Starter · MIATBD

Stable

4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter

1+ hit-0.5 pts matchup

2+ total bases-1.0 pts matchup

Home run-1.4 pts matchup

Austin Riley's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone

38% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits

Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
Market	BTB	Without the matchup	Matchup
1+ hit	54.8%	55.2%	-0.5
2+ total bases	32.0%	33.0%	-1.0
Home run	12.8%	14.2%	-1.4

What moves the number

1+ hit

Starter

0.0

Pitch mix

0.0

Bullpen

+0.3

Park

-0.7

2+ total bases

Starter

0.0

Pitch mix

0.0

Bullpen

+0.2

Park

-1.1

Home run

Starter

0.0

Pitch mix

0.0

Bullpen

+0.1

Park

-1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

Austin Riley · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs RHPvs LHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	15	.231	.267	.462	.300	.414	26.7%	6.7%	34.8%	88.9	108.4	20.0%	20.0%	60.0%
Last 15 G	14	42	.222	.310	.389	.307	.330	33.3%	11.9%	26.9%	89.6	109.8	13.0%	30.4%	43.5%
Last 30 G	29	86	.247	.302	.403	.306	.326	30.2%	8.1%	26.0%	91.7	111.0	13.2%	35.8%	43.4%
90 days	74	225	.237	.284	.411	.301	.299	34.7%	6.2%	28.7%	90.8	111.4	12.9%	41.7%	39.4%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play

Ground 35%Line drive 27%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 14%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	2	5	.400	.400	1.000	.580	.564	20.0%	0.0%	14.3%	98.0	106.1	50.0%	75.0%	50.0%
Last 15 G	8	15	.214	.267	.429	.300	.281	33.3%	0.0%	21.4%	88.2	106.1	22.2%	44.4%	33.3%
Last 30 G	16	28	.200	.286	.360	.287	.241	35.7%	7.1%	26.3%	88.6	106.3	13.3%	33.3%	40.0%
90 days	36	68	.220	.324	.356	.307	.330	33.8%	7.4%	26.4%	94.2	112.2	16.7%	47.2%	38.9%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play

Ground 28%Line drive 28%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	20	.278	.300	.611	.370	.451	25.0%	5.0%	30.0%	91.5	108.4	28.6%	35.7%	57.1%
Last 15 G	15	57	.220	.298	.400	.305	.317	33.3%	8.8%	25.5%	89.2	109.8	15.6%	34.4%	40.6%
Last 30 G	30	114	.235	.298	.392	.302	.305	31.6%	7.9%	26.1%	91.0	111.0	13.2%	35.3%	42.6%
90 days	76	293	.233	.294	.398	.302	.306	34.5%	6.5%	28.2%	91.6	112.2	13.7%	42.9%	39.3%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play

Ground 33%Line drive 27%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 14%

Austin Riley · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

xwOBA42.306

Avg EV9091.6

Max EV82112.2

Barrel%9413.7%

Hard-hit%7042.9%

Sweet-spot%8139.3%

K%434.5%

BB%276.5%

Whiff%1528.2%

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal

Contact rating56Average

Last 100 pitches96trending up

wOBA / xwOBA.307 / .324running 16 points behind his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit9/12

2+ total bases3/12

Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 24	RHP	Cutter	86.0	106.4	29	1.839	Home run
Sep 24	RHP	Sinker	89.9	85.1	34	.020	Sac fly
Sep 24	RHP	Sweeper	83.8	94.5	1	.395	Out
Sep 23	LHP	Fastball	91.1	104.3	29	1.539	Home run
Sep 23	LHP	Fastball	92.0	104.2	4	.519	Single
Sep 22	LHP	Cutter	91.1	106.1	18	.673	Out
Sep 22	LHP	Cutter	90.7	77.3	-7	.089	Force out
Sep 22	RHP	Fastball	94.5	90.2	28	.074	Out
Sep 22	RHP	Sweeper	83.1	81.4	14	.751	Single
Sep 19	RHP	Sinker	92.6	89.7	-33	.041	Out
Sep 19	RHP	Sweeper	82.9	72.3	56	.085	Out
Sep 19	RHP	Sweeper	85.6	89.1	15	.912	Single

Total bases, last 10 games★ home run

112

013

114

015

116

018

119

122

5★23

4★24

Last 10 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	HR	BB	K
Sep 24	4	1	4	1	1	0
Sep 23	4	2	5	1	0	2
Sep 22	4	1	1	0	0	0
Sep 19	4	1	1	0	0	0
Sep 18	4	0	0	0	0	3
Sep 16	4	1	1	0	0	2
Sep 15	4	0	0	0	1	3
Sep 14	4	1	1	0	0	0
Sep 13	4	0	0	0	1	1
Sep 12	4	1	1	0	1	1

The hitter

season-level talent read

Talent grade—— type

wOBA–

K%–

BB%–

Whiff%–

Barrel%–

Hard-hit%–

Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA

wOBA–

xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his

RV/100–

Hard-hit%–

K%–

BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Austin Riley: every projection we've made →