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Austin Riley

ATL · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Austin Riley · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.267.462.300.41426.7%6.7%34.8%88.9108.420.0%20.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1442.222.310.389.307.33033.3%11.9%26.9%89.6109.813.0%30.4%43.5%
Last 30 G2986.247.302.403.306.32630.2%8.1%26.0%91.7111.013.2%35.8%43.4%
90 days74225.237.284.411.301.29934.7%6.2%28.7%90.8111.412.9%41.7%39.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 27%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.400.4001.000.580.56420.0%0.0%14.3%98.0106.150.0%75.0%50.0%
Last 15 G815.214.267.429.300.28133.3%0.0%21.4%88.2106.122.2%44.4%33.3%
Last 30 G1628.200.286.360.287.24135.7%7.1%26.3%88.6106.313.3%33.3%40.0%
90 days3668.220.324.356.307.33033.8%7.4%26.4%94.2112.216.7%47.2%38.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 28%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.278.300.611.370.45125.0%5.0%30.0%91.5108.428.6%35.7%57.1%
Last 15 G1557.220.298.400.305.31733.3%8.8%25.5%89.2109.815.6%34.4%40.6%
Last 30 G30114.235.298.392.302.30531.6%7.9%26.1%91.0111.013.2%35.3%42.6%
90 days76293.233.294.398.302.30634.5%6.5%28.2%91.6112.213.7%42.9%39.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 168 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 27%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 14%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPCutter86.0106.4291.839Home run
Sep 24RHPSinker89.985.134.020Sac fly
Sep 24RHPSweeper83.894.51.395Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.1104.3291.539Home run
Sep 23LHPFastball92.0104.24.519Single
Sep 22LHPCutter91.1106.118.673Out
Sep 22LHPCutter90.777.3-7.089Force out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.590.228.074Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper83.181.414.751Single
Sep 19RHPSinker92.689.7-33.041Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper82.972.356.085Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper85.689.115.912Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24414110
Sep 23425102
Sep 22411000
Sep 19411000
Sep 18400003
Sep 16411002
Sep 15400013
Sep 14411000
Sep 13400011
Sep 12411011
FormNormal
Contact rating56Average
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.307 / .324running 16 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Austin Riley · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Austin Riley · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Peter Lambert: 45.2% · no hitSep 19 vs Hayden Wesneski: 49.2% · 1 HSep 22 vs Brandon Williamson: 52.1% · 1 HSep 23 vs Andrew Abbott: 60.0% · 2 HSep 24 vs Brady Singer: 56.4% · 1 HSep 25 vs Eury Pérez: 53.0% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 4 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 2.6. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit4 of 5BTB expected 2.6
Games with 2+ TB2 of 5BTB expected 1.6
Games with a HR2 of 5BTB expected 0.7
Talent grade—wOBA – · K% –

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Eury Pérez53.0%30.2%12.1%not settled
Sep 24Brady Singer56.4%29.6%14.1%4141
Sep 23Andrew Abbott60.0%36.6%15.5%4251
Sep 22Brandon Williamson52.1%34.5%14.6%4110
Sep 19Hayden Wesneski49.2%32.2%12.6%4110
Sep 18Peter Lambert45.2%23.4%11.6%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.