Jared Serna vs TBD, Sep 26, 2026

← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026

3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected

Hitter · MIA · batting 8Jared Serna

Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal

–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA

Starter · ATLTBD

Stable

4.4projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter

1+ hit-0.9 pts matchup

2+ total bases-1.2 pts matchup

Home run-1.3 pts matchup

Jared Serna's last 14 balls in playHit (4)Out (10)Barrel zone

50% hit 95+ mph36% in the sweet spot29% fell for hits

Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
Market	BTB	Without the matchup	Matchup
1+ hit	52.4%	53.3%	-0.9
2+ total bases	27.0%	28.2%	-1.2
Home run	7.6%	8.8%	-1.3

What moves the number

1+ hit

Starter

0.0

Pitch mix

0.0

Bullpen

+0.1

Park

-1.0

2+ total bases

Starter

0.0

Pitch mix

0.0

Bullpen

+0.1

Park

-1.4

Home run

Starter

0.0

Pitch mix

0.0

Bullpen

+0.1

Park

-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

Jared Serna · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games

vs RHPvs LHPAll

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	2	2	.500	.500	.500	.450	.155	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	75.4	75.4	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
Last 15 G	5	6	.400	.333	.400	.300	.198	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	81.3	98.2	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%
Last 30 G	5	6	.400	.333	.400	.300	.198	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	81.3	98.2	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%
90 days	5	6	.400	.333	.400	.300	.198	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	81.3	98.2	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 4 balls in play

Ground 75%Line drive 25%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	4	7	.000	.000	.000	.000	.068	28.6%	0.0%	15.4%	85.8	95.9	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Last 15 G	8	16	.133	.188	.267	.200	.209	31.2%	6.2%	26.5%	92.0	109.2	10.0%	50.0%	30.0%
Last 30 G	8	16	.133	.188	.267	.200	.209	31.2%	6.2%	26.5%	92.0	109.2	10.0%	50.0%	30.0%
90 days	8	16	.133	.188	.267	.200	.209	31.2%	6.2%	26.5%	92.0	109.2	10.0%	50.0%	30.0%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play

Ground 50%Line drive 20%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 10%

Window	G	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	Avg EV	Max EV	Barrel%	Hard-hit%	Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G	5	9	.111	.111	.111	.100	.087	33.3%	0.0%	26.3%	84.1	95.9	0.0%	16.7%	33.3%
Last 15 G	10	22	.200	.227	.300	.227	.206	31.8%	4.5%	28.3%	89.0	109.2	7.1%	50.0%	35.7%
Last 30 G	10	22	.200	.227	.300	.227	.206	31.8%	4.5%	28.3%	89.0	109.2	7.1%	50.0%	35.7%
90 days	10	22	.200	.227	.300	.227	.206	31.8%	4.5%	28.3%	89.0	109.2	7.1%	50.0%	35.7%

Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 14 balls in play

Ground 57%Line drive 21%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 7%

FormNormal

Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA

Last 100 pitches–

wOBA / xwOBA.230 / .203running 27 points ahead of his contact

Last 12 games, oldest to newest

Hit3/10

2+ total bases1/10

Home run0/10

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
Date	Pitcher	Pitch	Velo	EV	LA	xwOBA	Result
Sep 24	LHP	Fastball	91.7	93.9	-31	.089	Out
Sep 24	LHP	Changeup	80.0	86.3	-11	.142	Double play
Sep 24	LHP	Fastball	94.6	95.9	25	.228	Out
Sep 23	RHP	Fastball	95.5	75.4	9	.310	Single
Sep 15	LHP	Cutter	94.4	82.9	38	.012	Out
Sep 12	LHP	Fastball	95.8	69.9	84	.003	Out
Sep 8	LHP	Sinker	90.4	106.4	19	.835	Double
Sep 8	LHP	Changeup	79.9	83.9	14	.855	Double
Sep 4	LHP	Splitter	82.9	96.3	-27	.147	Out
Sep 4	LHP	Splitter	82.4	95.5	-17	.217	Fielder's choice
Sep 2	LHP	Fastball	92.5	109.2	-21	.120	Out
Sep 2	RHP	Sinker	91.0	96.8	18	.477	Sac fly

Total bases, last 10 games★ home run

011

012

015

022

123

024

Last 10 games.
Date	PA	H	TB	BB	K
Sep 24	3	0	0	0	0
Sep 23	1	1	1	0	0
Sep 22	2	0	0	0	2
Sep 15	2	0	0	0	1
Sep 12	1	0	0	0	0
Sep 11	3	0	0	0	3
Sep 8	3	2	4	0	1
Sep 4	2	0	0	0	0
Sep 2	4	1	1	1	0
Sep 1	1	0	0	0	0

The hitter

season-level talent read

Talent grade—— type

wOBA–

K%–

BB%–

Whiff%–

Barrel%–

Hard-hit%–

Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA

wOBA–

xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his

RV/100–

Hard-hit%–

K%–

BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jared Serna: every projection we've made →