MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup projected
Hitter · ATL · batting 9Sean Murphy
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · MIATBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Murphy's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.6 mph at 26°Out: 98.6 mph at 40°Out: 76.8 mph at -31°Out: 93.5 mph at -6°Out: 103.5 mph at 1°Out: 102.3 mph at 2°Out: 81.1 mph at 50°Out: 82.6 mph at -12°Out: 105.7 mph at -1°Out: 78.7 mph at 62°Out: 94.1 mph at 50°Out: 53.0 mph at -12°Out: 78.6 mph at 0°Out: 87.1 mph at -19°Out: 84.6 mph at -44°Out: 73.2 mph at -32°Double: 105.0 mph at 25°Out: 101.3 mph at 24°Out: 62.5 mph at -1°Single: 100.8 mph at 1°Out: 82.8 mph at 72°Out: 61.7 mph at -42°Out: 105.0 mph at -4°Out: 100.0 mph at 50°Out: 88.5 mph at 11°Out: 74.9 mph at 4°Out: 86.6 mph at -33°Out: 103.9 mph at 0°Home run: 95.3 mph at 36°Single: 93.7 mph at 4°Out: 106.1 mph at 9°Single: 74.2 mph at 27°Home run: 103.2 mph at 27°Out: 90.6 mph at -18°Double: 101.7 mph at -1°Single: 107.4 mph at 16°Out: 103.9 mph at 36°Double: 89.7 mph at 25°Home run: 105.8 mph at 34°Single: 45.6 mph at -64°
45% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit47.4%47.8%-0.4
2+ total bases26.1%27.0%-0.8
Home run10.4%11.6%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Sean Murphy · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G412.000.333.000.308.4258.3%33.3%16.7%93.2105.714.3%57.1%14.3%
Last 15 G1442.143.286.257.301.33821.4%16.7%28.0%89.3106.111.5%46.2%23.1%
Last 30 G2671.206.296.365.332.29328.2%11.3%28.3%89.0107.49.3%44.2%32.6%
90 days2671.206.296.365.332.29328.2%11.3%28.3%89.0107.49.3%44.2%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 61%Line drive 12%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.000.000.000.05550.0%0.0%45.5%89.698.60.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G815.000.133.000.093.12846.7%13.3%46.7%85.398.60.0%16.7%0.0%
Last 30 G1729.115.207.231.203.25434.5%10.3%35.0%84.9105.812.5%31.2%12.5%
90 days1729.115.207.231.203.25434.5%10.3%35.0%84.9105.812.5%31.2%12.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 16 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 6%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.000.222.000.206.30222.2%22.2%27.6%92.1105.710.0%50.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1557.104.246.188.246.28228.1%15.8%33.3%88.6106.19.4%40.6%18.8%
Last 30 G27100.180.270.326.295.28230.0%11.0%30.5%87.9107.410.2%40.7%27.1%
90 days27100.180.270.326.295.28230.0%11.0%30.5%87.9107.410.2%40.7%27.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 59 balls in play
Ground 58%Line drive 10%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
Sean Murphy · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating46Average
Last 100 pitches12trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.296 / .311results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit2/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker90.398.626.788Out
Sep 24LHPFastball95.598.640.151Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.076.8-31.025Out
Sep 22LHPCutter90.693.5-6.154Out
Sep 19RHPSinker91.3103.51.456Out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.5102.32.515Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.081.150.052Out
Sep 18RHPSinker94.282.6-12.063Error
Sep 18RHPFastball96.7105.7-1.420Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.578.762.013Out
Sep 16LHPSplitter83.194.150.006Out
Sep 16RHPSinker97.453.0-12.068Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400020
Sep 23300002
Sep 22300002
Sep 19400020
Sep 18400000
Sep 16400001
Sep 14400002
Sep 12412011
Sep 11411001
Sep 9300001

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Sean Murphy: every projection we've made →