MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 26, 2026
2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup projected
Hitter · TOR · batting 3Kazuma Okamoto
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.307wOBA vs RHP.299xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · CINRhett Lowder
Throws rightBTB Stuff 90Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Rhett Lowder's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .342 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 30%Slider: 27% usage, 85.4 mph, -1.8″ arm side, -1.2″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .282 vs league .288 (about even).Slider 27%Changeup: 20% usage, 86.9 mph, +17.4″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .300 vs league .305 (about even).Changeup 20%Fastball: 18% usage, 94.2 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +13.1″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .352 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 18%Curveball: 5% usage, 81.0 mph, -11.3″ arm side, -12.8″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .280 vs league .286 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kazuma Okamoto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kazuma Okamoto's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 101.0 mph at -2°Out: 85.9 mph at -20°Out: 78.0 mph at 36°Out: 87.1 mph at 29°Out: 97.3 mph at 26°Out: 99.5 mph at -7°Out: 102.5 mph at -4°Single: 82.3 mph at 20°Single: 102.7 mph at -12°Out: 90.2 mph at 55°Out: 95.7 mph at 26°Out: 70.5 mph at -14°Out: 87.1 mph at -25°Out: 85.6 mph at 48°Out: 79.3 mph at 7°Single: 66.5 mph at -47°Out: 85.9 mph at 32°Single: 99.8 mph at 5°Out: 106.1 mph at 8°Out: 93.3 mph at 29°Single: 78.6 mph at 21°Out: 95.5 mph at 37°Out: 97.2 mph at -21°Out: 88.1 mph at -15°Out: 85.2 mph at 29°Home run: 107.3 mph at 31°Home run: 107.9 mph at 27°Out: 79.8 mph at 82°Out: 78.4 mph at 47°Single: 102.9 mph at 14°Out: 86.3 mph at 42°Double: 103.2 mph at 20°Home run: 107.0 mph at 28°Out: 76.2 mph at 11°Out: 87.2 mph at -7°Out: 46.7 mph at -72°Home run: 106.2 mph at 36°Out: 94.3 mph at 43°Single: 97.2 mph at 15°Home run: 109.8 mph at 31°
45% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.0%63.1%+2.9
2+ total bases41.6%38.8%+2.8
Home run17.3%15.6%+1.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.7
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.7
Park
+0.7
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Kazuma Okamoto against each of Rhett Lowder's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%93.7+17″ / +7″.342.34715.2%10.9%48About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider27%85.4-2″ / -1″.282.28837.6%34.6%29About league average vs these
Changeup20%86.9+17″ / +1″.300.30525.9%25.3%24About league average vs these
Fastball18%94.2+10″ / +13″.352.35821.6%15.8%56About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball5%81.0-11″ / -13″.280.28625.6%23.7%6Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kazuma Okamoto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G416.133.188.133.156.20125.0%6.2%32.0%90.6102.70.0%45.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1446.250.348.500.366.36521.7%13.0%27.5%90.6107.310.0%43.3%43.3%
Last 30 G2988.218.295.410.318.32923.9%10.2%28.1%90.6107.38.6%46.6%39.7%
90 days71214.208.266.376.298.28925.2%7.5%28.1%88.0110.86.2%34.0%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 144 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 19%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.200.200.200.180.1830.0%0.0%0.0%82.895.70.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G715.231.333.692.420.53213.3%13.3%22.2%92.1109.827.3%54.5%45.5%
Last 30 G1635.333.429.867.523.55914.3%14.3%18.3%92.8109.828.0%48.0%52.0%
90 days3883.247.337.548.386.38226.5%9.6%28.5%91.7109.821.6%51.0%39.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 26%Line drive 16%Fly ball 45%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.150.190.150.162.19719.0%4.8%23.5%88.2102.70.0%37.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1561.245.344.547.380.40619.7%13.1%26.2%91.0109.814.6%46.3%43.9%
Last 30 G30123.250.333.537.376.39421.1%11.4%25.5%91.3109.814.5%47.0%43.4%
90 days73297.219.286.422.322.31525.6%8.1%28.2%89.0110.810.3%38.5%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 195 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 19%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 14%
Kazuma Okamoto · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating67Above average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.323 / .333results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSlider86.5101.0-2.302Double play
Sep 23RHPCutter90.585.9-20.042Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.878.036.106Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.987.129.031Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.597.326.439Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.799.5-7.202Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.2102.5-4.302Double play
Sep 21RHPCutter89.082.320.816Single
Sep 20RHPSlider92.5102.7-12.223Single
Sep 20RHPFastball95.690.255.013Out
Sep 20LHPFastball94.395.726.363Out
Sep 20RHPFastball97.470.5-14.039Force out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400010
Sep 23400002
Sep 21411001
Sep 20511001
Sep 19411000
Sep 18411011
Sep 16400011
Sep 15411001
Sep 14414101
Sep 13414110

Two strikes

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPwith two strikes
Rhett Lowder with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider27%35%27.3%21.0%21.0%
Sinker30%24%1.9%14.3%16.9%
Fastball18%20%11.1%9.9%18.0%
Changeup20%15%9.1%9.4%18.6%
Curveball5%6%11.1%10.0%20.1%
Sweeper0%0%100.0%100.0%19.3%
Kazuma Okamoto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kazuma Okamoto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.9%42.4%
Whiff%21.4%22.2%
Contact%78.6%77.8%
Chase%37.3%39.8%
wOBA.253.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.5%21.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.323
K%24.3%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%13.4%
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

210 PA
wOBA.307
xwOBA vs this mix.299against pitches like his
RV/100-0.25
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%23.8%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Rhett LowderRHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.2 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.3%59%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.4%6%67 strikeouts: 2.9%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 41% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff90
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker29%8793.81.9%
Slider27%9885.615.4%
Changeup19%9186.95.0%
Fastball18%7994.24.7%
Curveball6%9680.83.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Sweeper0%9585.3100.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 206017%8%28%.456
Sep 159118%8%23%.382
Sep 97221%6%42%.584

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Rhett Lowder CIN · RHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kazuma Okamoto: every projection we've made →