MLBengine v14
← CLE at KC, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · lineup projected
Hitter · KC · batting 1Carter Jensen
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.373wOBA vs RHP.336xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · CLETanner Bibee
Throws rightBTB Stuff 96Trending Down
3.7projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Tanner Bibee's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 25% usage, 93.9 mph, +4.2″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .381 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Fastball 25%Cutter: 23% usage, 85.1 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +0.1″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .339 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Cutter 23%Sinker: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +7.9″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .373 vs league .354 (hitter's edge).Sinker 19%Changeup: 14% usage, 80.6 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .303 vs league .283 (hitter's edge).Changeup 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 78.1 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .333 vs league .314 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Sweeper: 8% usage, 82.0 mph, -16.6″ arm side, -1.7″ rise. Carter Jensen: wOBA .334 vs league .315 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 8%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carter Jensen's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Carter Jensen's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 90.7 mph at 46°Out: 86.0 mph at 41°Single: 104.5 mph at -8°Single: 106.4 mph at 16°Single: 94.0 mph at 5°Out: 83.9 mph at -8°Out: 99.0 mph at 46°Single: 75.6 mph at 14°Home run: 99.9 mph at 40°Out: 55.0 mph at 42°Out: 92.6 mph at 74°Single: 103.1 mph at -10°Single: 92.0 mph at 8°Out: 94.6 mph at -31°Out: 92.6 mph at 26°Out: 100.1 mph at 46°Double: 88.5 mph at 7°Out: 60.6 mph at -62°Double: 88.6 mph at 26°Out: 84.4 mph at 32°Single: 93.5 mph at 2°Home run: 108.4 mph at 29°Out: 71.2 mph at 64°Out: 65.3 mph at 72°Double: 102.6 mph at 26°Out: 64.2 mph at -54°Double: 110.0 mph at 22°Out: 63.1 mph at 48°Home run: 108.6 mph at 29°Out: 106.5 mph at 19°Out: 82.4 mph at 16°Out: 86.9 mph at 10°Double: 107.4 mph at 14°Out: 95.6 mph at -15°Out: 90.3 mph at 60°Out: 54.2 mph at -17°Out: 90.0 mph at 30°Double: 109.3 mph at 13°Out: 99.5 mph at 3°Home run: 108.4 mph at 28°
40% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.8%59.7%+3.1
2+ total bases40.8%39.0%+1.9
Home run16.1%16.6%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.4
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.9
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
-1.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Carter Jensen against each of Tanner Bibee's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball25%93.9+4″ / +15″.381.36121.6%14.8%51About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter23%85.1-7″ / +0″.339.32038.2%28.1%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker19%92.7+15″ / +8″.373.35421.4%14.0%44About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup14%80.6+12″ / +12″.303.28327.8%30.2%19About league average vs these
Curveball12%78.1-14″ / -8″.333.31428.4%30.2%15About league average vs these
Sweeper8%82.0-17″ / -2″.334.31522.5%23.8%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carter Jensen · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.133.133.333.193.06146.7%0.0%35.7%89.0104.50.0%37.5%0.0%
Last 15 G1547.275.383.550.399.35623.4%12.8%28.7%90.4110.013.8%37.9%37.9%
Last 30 G2888.311.420.716.470.42021.6%14.8%25.3%93.8110.216.4%50.9%41.8%
90 days63206.233.345.528.378.33526.2%13.6%24.7%91.8110.212.4%46.3%33.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 121 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 17%Fly ball 38%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.500.571.500.486.33442.9%0.0%36.4%92.0106.40.0%33.3%66.7%
Last 15 G1017.250.294.438.318.28947.1%0.0%31.0%83.8108.412.5%25.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2141.265.366.471.362.38234.1%12.2%28.6%93.0110.314.3%47.6%42.9%
90 days4797.209.289.337.280.30439.2%9.3%31.4%91.3110.314.3%44.9%42.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 27%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.238.273.381.286.14845.5%0.0%35.8%89.8106.40.0%36.4%18.2%
Last 15 G1564.268.359.518.377.33829.7%9.4%29.3%89.0110.013.5%35.1%40.5%
Last 30 G30129.296.403.639.436.40825.6%14.0%26.3%93.6110.315.8%50.0%42.1%
90 days71303.225.327.466.347.32530.4%12.2%26.7%91.7110.312.9%45.9%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 170 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 20%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 12%
Carter Jensen · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.350 / .336results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball95.590.746.014Out
Sep 24RHPFastball96.386.041.008Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.5104.5-8.324Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.7106.416.662Single
Sep 23LHPSweeper77.194.05.458Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup92.083.9-8.109Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.499.046.045Out
Sep 22LHPSinker94.275.614.491Single
Sep 19RHPFastball97.299.940.303Home run
Sep 19RHPFastball94.955.042.100Out
Sep 18RHPFastball96.292.674.007Out
Sep 17RHPSinker94.1103.1-10.283Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400002
Sep 23433001
Sep 22511001
Sep 19514103
Sep 18400003
Sep 17422010
Sep 16512010
Sep 15412002
Sep 13211001
Sep 12414102

Two strikes

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPwith two strikes
Tanner Bibee with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball25%24%11.5%11.3%18.0%
Cutter23%21%25.5%23.5%17.9%
Changeup14%20%20.9%17.7%18.6%
Sinker19%16%3.1%14.5%16.9%
Sweeper8%11%8.0%6.8%19.3%
Curveball12%8%10.5%12.5%20.1%
Carter Jensen bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carter Jensen with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.3%41.0%
Whiff%24.5%21.3%
Contact%75.5%78.7%
Chase%35.6%39.6%
wOBA.256.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.352
K%29.0%
BB%12.0%
Whiff%11.8%
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV91.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

203 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/1001.32
Hard-hit%27.2%
K%26.3%
BB%12.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE vs KC
3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 24.3 batters over 5.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 49.3%49%≤34 strikeouts: 19.2%19%45 strikeouts: 14.3%14%56 strikeouts: 8.8%9%67 strikeouts: 4.8%5%78 strikeouts: 2.2%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.4%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.5%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%8.7%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff96
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball25%7693.96.0%
Cutter23%12185.212.4%
Sinker19%9492.74.3%
Changeup14%10580.616.7%
Curveball12%7878.25.5%
Sweeper8%9881.97.4%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19958%7%40%.518
Sep 139627%16%31%.248
Sep 8625%2%30%.412

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Tanner Bibee CLE · RHPvsKC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCLE @ KC →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carter Jensen: every projection we've made →