MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · CWS · batting 9Braden Montgomery
Switch hitterTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.210wOBA vs LHP.286xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · COLJose Quintana
Throws leftBTB Stuff 83Stable
3.1projected K11%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Jose Quintana's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 26% usage, 88.4 mph, +3.7″ arm side, +13.0″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .334 vs league .358 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 26%Sinker: 26% usage, 88.8 mph, +10.6″ arm side, +10.0″ rise. Braden Montgomery: wOBA .332 vs league .357 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 26%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Braden Montgomery's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Braden Montgomery's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 72.0 mph at -22°Single: 96.3 mph at 15°Double: 100.1 mph at 23°Out: 100.9 mph at 0°Single: 103.1 mph at -32°Single: 109.7 mph at 3°Single: 104.2 mph at 7°Out: 90.2 mph at -25°Out: 92.6 mph at 12°Single: 75.4 mph at -43°Out: 49.9 mph at -67°Out: 75.0 mph at -1°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Double: 102.0 mph at 2°Out: 103.1 mph at -15°Double: 103.8 mph at 21°Out: 72.8 mph at -6°Out: 79.0 mph at -8°Out: 94.4 mph at 19°Out: 82.1 mph at -32°Out: 91.4 mph at -18°Out: 84.8 mph at -38°Out: 106.8 mph at -1°Out: 89.2 mph at -10°Out: 94.3 mph at -12°Out: 93.3 mph at 28°Out: 89.1 mph at -24°Out: 108.5 mph at 22°Out: 85.2 mph at -28°Out: 90.2 mph at 20°Out: 98.8 mph at 40°Out: 67.7 mph at -48°Double: 98.3 mph at 10°Single: 97.4 mph at -6°Out: 91.4 mph at 44°Out: 98.8 mph at 5°Out: 71.2 mph at -61°Out: 91.3 mph at 60°Out: 66.8 mph at -21°Out: 68.2 mph at 84°
40% hit 95+ mph25% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.1%54.5%+1.6
2+ total bases30.3%29.0%+1.3
Home run8.8%8.1%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.1
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Braden Montgomery against each of Jose Quintana's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball26%88.4+4″ / +13″.334.35818.1%14.1%22About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker26%88.8+11″ / +10″.332.35721.3%16.3%28About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Braden Montgomery · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.000.000.000.22250.0%0.0%33.3%91.492.60.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G915.000.000.000.060.22046.7%0.0%39.5%93.1108.512.5%12.5%50.0%
Last 30 G1828.036.036.071.077.23032.1%0.0%31.9%91.0108.55.3%26.3%26.3%
90 days5184.105.190.197.193.27628.6%8.3%29.1%86.4108.53.8%32.7%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.562.562.750.572.3810.0%0.0%8.3%90.4109.76.2%62.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1435.355.429.484.403.3428.6%11.4%30.3%90.9109.73.6%53.6%21.4%
Last 30 G2985.247.353.384.332.3979.4%14.1%25.0%87.8109.76.2%43.1%30.8%
90 days72214.269.364.387.340.35114.5%12.1%25.5%89.1109.73.9%43.5%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 154 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 20%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.450.450.600.458.34910.0%0.0%15.2%90.5109.75.6%55.6%27.8%
Last 15 G1550.239.300.326.300.30520.0%8.0%33.7%91.4109.75.6%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G30113.188.274.297.269.35615.0%10.6%27.1%88.5109.76.0%39.3%29.8%
90 days74298.221.315.332.298.32918.5%11.1%26.6%88.4109.73.9%40.8%27.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 206 balls in play
Ground 60%Line drive 19%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 5%
Braden Montgomery · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches21trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.295 / .331running 37 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSinker90.672.0-22.050Out
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.396.315.803Single
Sep 24RHPFastball92.2100.123.683Double
Sep 24RHPFastball91.6100.90.386Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.1103.1-32.088Single
Sep 23RHPCutter91.1109.73.566Single
Sep 23RHPFastball98.9104.27.597Single
Sep 23LHPFastball91.690.2-25.054Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball82.092.612.836Out
Sep 22RHPFastball91.175.4-43.147Single
Sep 22RHPFastball91.649.9-67.202Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.075.0-1.117Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24523001
Sep 23433000
Sep 22411001
Sep 20423000
Sep 19312000
Sep 18200001
Sep 17300001
Sep 15200001
Sep 14400013
Sep 13100000

Two strikes

Jose Quintana COL · LHPwith two strikes
Jose Quintana with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball26%30%0.0%0.0%18.6%
Sweeper19%26%66.7%33.3%20.5%
Sinker26%22%0.0%0.0%17.7%
Curveball19%13%–0.0%21.3%
Changeup11%9%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Braden Montgomery bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Braden Montgomery with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.5%41.6%
Whiff%26.1%21.7%
Contact%73.9%78.3%
Chase%38.5%40.0%
wOBA.233.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.4%14.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.303
K%19.3%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%13.0%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%27.6%
Avg EV88.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

83 PA
wOBA.210
xwOBA vs this mix.286against pitches like his
RV/100-2.15
Hard-hit%21.8%
K%27.2%
BB%11.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jose QuintanaLHP · COL vs CWS
3.1projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.8 batters over 3.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 62.3%62%≤34 strikeouts: 17.3%17%45 strikeouts: 10.8%11%56 strikeouts: 5.6%6%67 strikeouts: 2.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.0%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.5%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%11.1%
BB%5.6%
Whiff%7.1%
Velo84.5
BTB Stuff83
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball26%7789.15.6%
Sinker26%8888.80.0%
Curveball19%7778.47.7%
Sweeper19%9278.923.1%
Changeup11%8183.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jose Quintana COL · LHPvsCWS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Braden Montgomery: every projection we've made →