MLBengine v14
← COL at CWS, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · lineup projected
Hitter · COL · batting 7Brett Sullivan
Bats leftTalent grade AvgContactNormal
.336wOBA vs RHP.303xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · CWSDavis Martin
Throws rightBTB Stuff 93Trending Up
2.9projected K13%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Davis Martin's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 27% usage, 93.4 mph, +5.2″ arm side, +13.2″ rise. Brett Sullivan: wOBA .367 vs league .365 (about even).Fastball 27%Sinker: 20% usage, 92.6 mph, +13.9″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Brett Sullivan: wOBA .359 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 20%Curveball: 17% usage, 81.3 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -9.0″ rise. Brett Sullivan: wOBA .309 vs league .306 (about even).Curveball 17%Changeup: 14% usage, 89.6 mph, +12.3″ arm side, +0.7″ rise. Brett Sullivan: wOBA .322 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 14%Cutter: 12% usage, 89.8 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +6.6″ rise. Brett Sullivan: wOBA .357 vs league .354 (about even).Cutter 12%Slider: 10% usage, 86.7 mph, -5.0″ arm side, +0.8″ rise. Brett Sullivan: wOBA .326 vs league .324 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brett Sullivan's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brett Sullivan's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 81.2 mph at 54°Out: 90.6 mph at 5°Out: 100.0 mph at -9°Out: 98.2 mph at 2°Out: 95.0 mph at -7°Out: 80.4 mph at 66°Single: 96.7 mph at 12°Out: 84.5 mph at 72°Single: 97.7 mph at 11°Out: 88.9 mph at 59°Out: 80.1 mph at 74°Out: 72.4 mph at 36°Out: 100.7 mph at -3°Single: 97.0 mph at 6°Out: 77.8 mph at -27°Out: 93.1 mph at 48°Out: 80.6 mph at 42°Out: 74.8 mph at 15°Out: 67.9 mph at -21°Out: 93.3 mph at 21°Out: 103.5 mph at 18°Out: 95.5 mph at 5°Single: 73.6 mph at 23°Double: 84.6 mph at 22°Out: 84.8 mph at 45°Single: 96.6 mph at 11°Out: 70.1 mph at -12°Out: 75.3 mph at 25°Single: 86.4 mph at 20°Single: 96.4 mph at -7°Out: 63.2 mph at 83°Out: 89.3 mph at 37°Out: 74.1 mph at 78°Out: 104.7 mph at -8°Double: 104.5 mph at 20°Out: 69.6 mph at 4°Out: 91.2 mph at 51°Out: 98.6 mph at 20°Out: 85.6 mph at 34°Out: 42.9 mph at -49°
35% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.2%58.9%+2.3
2+ total bases34.9%33.0%+1.9
Home run10.3%9.3%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.0
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Brett Sullivan against each of Davis Martin's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball27%93.4+5″ / +13″.367.36511.3%14.8%31About league average vs these
Sinker20%92.6+14″ / +7″.359.3569.7%13.0%23About league average vs these
Curveball17%81.3-14″ / -9″.309.30621.4%27.9%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup14%89.6+12″ / +1″.322.31917.7%21.9%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter12%89.8-1″ / +7″.357.35416.2%21.0%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider10%86.7-5″ / +1″.326.32421.1%27.4%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brett Sullivan · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.250.250.250.225.31312.5%0.0%7.1%87.5100.70.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1231.133.161.167.155.20622.6%3.2%14.9%84.9103.50.0%27.3%31.8%
Last 30 G2567.222.269.413.318.30617.9%6.0%15.6%87.9105.56.1%34.7%34.7%
90 days3284.244.298.449.341.30217.9%7.1%15.2%88.3105.54.9%39.3%34.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 25%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.125.125.125.112.2520.0%0.0%0.0%91.1100.00.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1419.278.316.333.292.3850.0%5.3%3.1%87.4104.75.6%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G2330.259.300.333.280.3293.3%6.7%5.4%84.6104.73.7%33.3%29.6%
90 days2533.233.273.300.255.3033.0%6.1%5.1%84.6104.73.3%33.3%26.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 30 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 23%Fly ball 3%Pop-up 27%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.188.188.188.169.2826.2%0.0%3.7%89.4100.70.0%46.7%13.3%
Last 15 G1550.188.220.229.208.27514.0%4.0%10.1%86.0104.72.5%35.0%30.0%
Last 30 G3097.233.278.389.306.31313.4%6.2%12.1%86.7105.55.3%34.2%32.9%
90 days37117.241.291.407.316.30213.7%6.8%12.2%87.0105.54.4%37.4%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 18%
Brett Sullivan · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating34Below average
Last 100 pitches23trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.309 / .301results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball90.381.254.015Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball78.890.65.396Force out
Sep 24LHPCutter88.6100.0-9.250Force out
Sep 20LHPFastball93.498.22.434Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball81.895.0-7.235Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.580.466.006Out
Sep 17RHPChangeup87.196.712.928Single
Sep 17RHPSweeper83.284.572.003Out
Sep 17RHPChangeup91.297.711.821Single
Sep 17LHPFastball91.788.959.031Out
Sep 15RHPSlider89.280.174.000Out
Sep 15RHPCurveball79.072.436.388Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300000
Sep 20400001
Sep 17422000
Sep 15411000
Sep 14100000
Sep 13400000
Sep 9400002
Sep 6200000
Sep 2111000
Sep 1423010

Two strikes

Davis Martin CWS · RHPwith two strikes
Davis Martin with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball27%29%16.7%12.2%18.0%
Curveball17%19%32.0%30.6%20.1%
Slider10%17%11.1%9.3%21.0%
Sinker20%16%0.0%2.4%16.9%
Changeup14%10%0.0%4.0%18.6%
Cutter12%8%7.1%4.8%17.9%
Brett Sullivan bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brett Sullivan with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.7%41.0%
Whiff%21.5%21.3%
Contact%78.5%78.7%
Chase%42.2%39.6%
wOBA.250.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.3%20.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgContact type
wOBA.310
K%19.2%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%8.3%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%28.8%
Avg EV88.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

84 PA
wOBA.336
xwOBA vs this mix.303against pitches like his
RV/1000.08
Hard-hit%28.4%
K%17.9%
BB%7.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Davis MartinRHP · CWS vs COL
2.9projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 19.4 batters over 4.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 66.7%67%≤34 strikeouts: 16.2%16%45 strikeouts: 9.5%10%56 strikeouts: 4.6%5%67 strikeouts: 2.0%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.3%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 56% (red bars) · under: 44%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%13.4%
BB%9.1%
Whiff%7.0%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff93
Location96
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball27%8593.46.9%
Sinker20%8092.60.0%
Curveball17%9781.312.5%
Changeup14%10389.64.5%
Cutter12%11089.89.0%
Slider10%9886.610.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207033%16%22%.267
Sep 15710%1%45%.270
Sep 9685%6%47%.321

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Davis Martin CWS · RHPvsCOL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCOL @ CWS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brett Sullivan: every projection we've made →