MLBengine v14
← HOU at OAK, Sep 26, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · lineup projected
Hitter · HOU · batting 6Christian Walker
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.271wOBA vs RHP.293xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · OAKJack Perkins
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
4.6projected K24%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jack Perkins's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sweeper: 25% usage, 86.4 mph, -11.9″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .250 vs league .269 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 25%Fastball: 24% usage, 95.4 mph, +9.8″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .335 vs league .355 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 24%Changeup: 21% usage, 89.3 mph, +12.6″ arm side, +0.2″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .233 vs league .252 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 21%Cutter: 19% usage, 92.7 mph, +1.0″ arm side, +7.7″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .306 vs league .326 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 19%Sinker: 7% usage, 94.7 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Christian Walker: wOBA .329 vs league .349 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christian Walker's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Christian Walker's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 95.7 mph at 45°Single: 101.6 mph at 14°Home run: 109.7 mph at 22°Out: 83.9 mph at 63°Single: 105.6 mph at -9°Out: 104.2 mph at 15°Home run: 104.7 mph at 21°Out: 80.0 mph at 41°Out: 105.3 mph at -6°Out: 94.2 mph at 28°Single: 108.2 mph at 19°Single: 110.7 mph at 1°Out: 62.1 mph at -16°Out: 77.2 mph at 50°Out: 85.3 mph at 43°Out: 80.9 mph at 35°Out: 87.8 mph at 56°Out: 90.3 mph at 56°Out: 86.2 mph at -9°Out: 98.1 mph at 31°Out: 101.7 mph at -10°Out: 70.0 mph at 6°Out: 80.1 mph at 30°Out: 104.5 mph at 20°Out: 81.9 mph at 5°Out: 42.6 mph at 15°Out: 93.3 mph at 24°Out: 57.2 mph at -2°Out: 101.2 mph at 31°Single: 73.6 mph at 20°Out: 60.9 mph at 16°Out: 78.8 mph at -15°Out: 73.2 mph at -36°Out: 68.7 mph at 63°Out: 100.3 mph at 52°Single: 95.6 mph at 4°Out: 87.7 mph at 61°Home run: 107.7 mph at 27°Out: 89.6 mph at 38°Single: 68.0 mph at 20°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.5%58.3%+1.2
2+ total bases35.8%33.6%+2.2
Home run14.3%12.3%+2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
-1.4
Bullpen
+0.8
Park
+2.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
-1.3
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+3.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.6
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+2.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Christian Walker against each of Jack Perkins's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sweeper25%86.4-12″ / +2″.250.26936.4%32.7%23About league average vs these
Fastball24%95.4+10″ / +15″.335.35523.3%17.0%70About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup21%89.3+13″ / +0″.233.25231.8%31.3%3Little history vs this shape
Cutter19%92.7+1″ / +8″.306.32629.5%22.9%40About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker7%94.7+16″ / +9″.329.34915.4%11.1%62About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Christian Walker · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.333.333.667.422.36627.8%0.0%29.3%96.1110.723.1%69.2%38.5%
Last 15 G1544.233.250.442.295.34422.7%2.3%24.3%88.3110.718.2%45.5%45.5%
Last 30 G2985.205.212.361.255.29521.2%1.2%23.1%88.6110.712.1%40.9%34.8%
90 days65214.205.252.355.270.29227.1%4.7%27.4%87.8110.79.8%37.8%38.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 143 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 26%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G13.000.333.000.233.30433.3%33.3%25.0%94.294.20.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G614.000.214.000.150.19328.6%21.4%33.3%84.9101.70.0%14.3%14.3%
Last 30 G1632.154.312.154.244.26625.0%15.6%28.1%85.7108.60.0%27.8%27.8%
90 days3266.226.379.377.358.31819.7%15.2%27.7%88.0110.02.5%32.5%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 40 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 15%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.300.333.600.395.35828.6%4.8%28.9%95.9110.721.4%64.3%42.9%
Last 15 G1558.185.241.352.260.30724.1%6.9%26.0%87.7110.715.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 30 G30117.193.239.312.252.28722.2%5.1%24.3%87.9110.79.5%38.1%33.3%
90 days70280.209.282.360.291.29825.4%7.1%27.5%87.8110.78.2%36.6%35.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 183 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 24%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 12%
Christian Walker · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating41Below average
Last 100 pitches87trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.283 / .308running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball93.295.745.013Out
Sep 24RHPCurveball79.1101.614.773Single
Sep 24RHPSinker96.9109.7221.787Home run
Sep 23RHPSweeper87.383.963.010Out
Sep 23RHPSinker96.4105.6-9.273Single
Sep 22RHPFastball97.4104.215.720Out
Sep 22RHPSlider87.6104.7211.077Home run
Sep 22RHPFastball96.680.041.041Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.9105.3-6.323Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup82.094.228.215Out
Sep 19RHPSlider84.6108.219.969Single
Sep 19RHPFastball97.0110.71.528Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24425101
Sep 23411002
Sep 22514101
Sep 20400012
Sep 19422000
Sep 18400002
Sep 16400002
Sep 15300002
Sep 13200010
Sep 12400001

Two strikes

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPwith two strikes
Jack Perkins with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper25%30%25.8%26.3%19.3%
Fastball24%29%19.1%16.7%18.0%
Changeup21%27%31.4%25.3%18.6%
Slider3%6%10.0%20.0%21.0%
Cutter19%5%15.4%18.8%17.9%
Sinker7%3%0.0%12.5%16.9%
Other1%0%–0.0%21.7%
Christian Walker bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christian Walker with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.2%42.4%
Whiff%24.6%22.2%
Contact%75.4%77.8%
Chase%40.7%39.8%
wOBA.217.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.4%23.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.294
K%25.9%
BB%7.2%
Whiff%13.6%
Barrel%5.9%
Hard-hit%24.0%
Avg EV87.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

212 PA
wOBA.271
xwOBA vs this mix.293against pitches like his
RV/100-1.06
Hard-hit%24.9%
K%26.8%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jack PerkinsRHP · OAK vs HOU
4.6projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.0 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 32.5%32%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 17.2%17%56 strikeouts: 13.2%13%67 strikeouts: 8.8%9%78 strikeouts: 5.0%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.7%5%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 49% (red bars) · under: 51%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.7%
BB%10.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Velo90.9
BTB Stuff99
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sweeper25%10886.416.3%
Fastball24%9595.37.4%
Changeup21%9389.315.1%
Cutter19%10492.77.5%
Sinker7%9294.87.1%
Slider3%9984.93.1%
Other1%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 208018%10%23%.231
Sep 158333%8%25%.194
Sep 88514%9%29%.405

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jack Perkins OAK · RHPvsHOU lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameHOU @ OAK →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christian Walker: every projection we've made →