The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 83°F · Wind out · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 127 · HR 122 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
HOU starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 80 | 18% | 10% | 23% | .231 |
| Sep 15 | 83 | 33% | 8% | 25% | .194 |
| Sep 8 | 85 | 14% | 9% | 29% | .405 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Jack Perkins's pitches | HOU lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Sweeper | 25% | 86.4 | 108 | 16.3% | -0.25 | .228 | 15.4% | 20.6% | -1.43 |
| Fastball | 24% | 95.3 | 95 | 7.4% | -4.51 | .328 | 10.7% | 26.4% | +1.17 |
| Changeup | 21% | 89.3 | 93 | 15.1% | 1.58 | .281 | 15.3% | 22.9% | -0.86 |
| Cutter | 19% | 92.7 | 104 | 7.5% | -0.10 | .350 | 10.8% | 30.5% | +0.27 |
| Sinker | 7% | 94.8 | 92 | 7.1% | -1.08 | .357 | 4.7% | 32.0% | +0.31 |
| Slider | 3% | 84.9 | 99 | 3.1% | -3.40 | .353 | 15.5% | 23.6% | +0.16 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweeper | 25% | 30% | 25.8% | 26.3% | 19.3% |
| Fastball | 24% | 29% | 19.1% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| Changeup | 21% | 27% | 31.4% | 25.3% | 18.6% |
| Slider | 3% | 6% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 21.0% |
| Cutter | 19% | 5% | 15.4% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| Sinker | 7% | 3% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 16.9% |
| Other | 1% | 0% | – | 0.0% | 21.7% |
Astros lineup
Projected · facing Jack Perkins RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Peña SS · bats R | 68.8% | 43.7% | 16.8% | 4.0 | +2.6 | .355 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez LF · bats L | 70.8% | 51.1% | 23.8% | 3.9 | +4.8 | .473 | A | Power | Hot |
| 3 | Isaac Paredes 3B · bats R | 67.3% | 41.7% | 13.5% | 3.8 | +3.1 | .375 | A | Contact | Hot |
| 4 | Jose Altuve 2B · bats R | 63.0% | 36.1% | 9.8% | 3.8 | +2.1 | .300 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Yainer Diaz DH · bats R | 71.1% | 47.0% | 16.5% | 3.7 | +2.9 | .360 | B | Power | Normal |
| 6 | Christian Walker 1B · bats R | 59.5% | 35.8% | 14.3% | 3.6 | +1.2 | .271 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 7 | Cam Smith RF · bats R | 57.5% | 35.7% | 14.5% | 3.5 | +1.9 | .295 | D | Balanced | Cold |
| 8 | Lucas Spence CF · bats L | 56.2% | 34.3% | 13.7% | 3.4 | +2.1 | .338 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | Christian Vázquez C · bats R | 54.2% | 27.8% | 7.1% | 3.3 | +1.6 | .263 | F | Balanced | Normal |
Athletics lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Bolte LF · bats R | 61.5% | 35.5% | 12.2% | 4.0 | +2.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Lawrence Butler RF · bats L | 65.1% | 41.6% | 16.4% | 3.9 | +2.5 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Shea Langeliers DH · bats R | 66.9% | 42.9% | 16.8% | 3.8 | +2.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Jeff McNeil 2B · bats L | 72.0% | 42.1% | 8.3% | 3.8 | +1.9 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Zack Gelof 3B · bats R | 62.5% | 40.6% | 19.0% | 3.7 | +2.5 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Donovan Walton 2B · bats L | 60.6% | 34.9% | 10.5% | 3.6 | +2.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Carlos Cortes LF · bats L | 60.1% | 34.6% | 9.3% | 3.5 | +2.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Joshua Kuroda-Grauer SS · bats R | 62.6% | 36.3% | 9.9% | 3.4 | +2.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Jonah Heim C · bats S | 55.1% | 31.6% | 9.4% | 3.3 | +2.3 | – | — | — | Normal |