LAA at SEA, Sep 26, 2026

The game

LAA runs3.5win 38%

SEA runs4.8win 62%

Total8.3book line 6.5

No run, 1st inning53%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 54°F · Crosswind · roof retractable
Park factor: Runs 86 · HR 99 100 = average

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

LAA starter

Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA vs SEA

4.2projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.8 batters over 5.1 innings

Over 4.5: 42% (red bars) · under: 59%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%19.1%

BB%9.4%

Whiff%9.6%

Velo87.0

BTB Stuff92

Location99

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Cutter40%11489.79.2%

Sweeper25%9481.215.1%

Splitter20%6384.710.6%

Sinker15%6492.50.5%

Slider0%9584.30.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	91	27%	15%	14%	.318
Sep 15	90	28%	16%	24%	.286
Sep 9	103	21%	7%	25%	.308

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1J.P. Crawford20%

2Randy Arozarena23%

3Dominic Canzone23%

4Cal Raleigh28%

5Julio Rodríguez20%

6Josh Naylor12%

7Cole Young15%

8Lazaro Montes35%

9Leo Rivas19%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

SEA starter

Kade AndersonLHP · SEA vs LAA

5.4projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 21.4 batters over 5.1 innings

Over 5.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%21.4%

BB%6.1%

Whiff%12.7%

Velo88.6

BTB Stuff97

Location101

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball41%9093.410.8%

Slider24%10987.812.8%

Changeup18%9684.518.4%

Curveball16%9781.910.5%

Sinker2%10793.014.3%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 20	84	29%	17%	38%	.142
Sep 14	72	25%	14%	35%	.368
Sep 9	81	21%	12%	42%	.300

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Kade Anderson SEA · LHPvsLAA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Zach Neto22%

2Mike Trout23%

3Wade Meckler17%

4Vaughn Grissom22%

5Moisés Ballesteros23%

6Denzer Guzman27%

7Josh Lowe29%

8Christian Moore23%

9Bryce Teodosio26%

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Kade Anderson SEA · LHPvsLAA lineuppitch-mix battle

Kade Anderson's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Kade Anderson's pitches					LAA lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	41%	93.4	90	10.8%	-0.26	.317	9.6%	25.9%	+0.03
Slider	24%	87.8	109	12.8%	-0.84	.239	17.5%	25.0%	-1.40
Changeup	18%	84.5	96	18.4%	-1.03	.248	22.3%	18.4%	-1.02
Curveball	16%	81.9	97	10.5%	2.46	.323	12.5%	20.4%	-0.24
Sinker	2%	93.0	107	14.3%	11.90	.326	5.5%	32.1%	-0.17

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPvsSEA lineuppitch-mix battle

Ryan Johnson's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Ryan Johnson's pitches					SEA lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Cutter	40%	89.7	114	9.2%	1.55	.346	8.7%	19.9%	+0.18
Sweeper	25%	81.2	94	15.1%	0.20	.278	14.8%	19.4%	-0.73
Splitter	20%	84.7	63	10.6%	0.30	.283	13.4%	24.1%	-0.46
Sinker	15%	92.5	64	0.5%	-5.51	.348	6.7%	33.5%	+1.14

Bullpens

Angels bullpen#25 of 30

K%21.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.2%

SwStr%11.1%

wOBA allowed.353

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Mariners bullpen#22 of 30

K%22.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.2%

SwStr%10.9%

wOBA allowed.355

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Ryan Johnson LAA · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Cutter+2 pts

Sweeper+1 pts

Splitter+1 pts

Sinker-4 pts

Slider+1 pts

Ryan Johnson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Cutter	40%	42%	19.6%	21.0%	17.9%
Sweeper	25%	26%	23.4%	17.3%	19.3%
Splitter	20%	21%	15.8%	12.7%	19.0%
Sinker	15%	10%	0.0%	0.0%	16.9%
Slider	0%	1%	0.0%	0.0%	21.0%

Kade Anderson SEA · LHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider+8 pts

Fastball-9 pts

Changeup+5 pts

Curveball-4 pts

Sinker-1 pts

Kade Anderson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	24%	33%	26.7%	20.8%	21.6%
Fastball	41%	32%	22.6%	19.1%	18.6%
Changeup	18%	23%	19.0%	11.8%	18.3%
Curveball	16%	12%	20.0%	29.4%	21.3%
Sinker	2%	1%	0.0%	0.0%	17.7%

Angels lineup

Projected · facing Kade Anderson LHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Zach Neto SS · bats R	62.6%	41.2%	17.5%	4.0	+2.1	.381	C	Balanced	Normal
2	Mike Trout DH · bats R	58.8%	33.4%	13.0%	3.9	+1.0	.370	C	Balanced	Hot
3	Wade Meckler LF · bats L	64.3%	32.2%	5.6%	3.8	-0.3	.337	C	Contact	Normal
4	Vaughn Grissom 1B · bats R	60.5%	33.8%	10.8%	3.8	+0.4	.352	F	Balanced	Cold
5	Moisés Ballesteros C · bats L	57.9%	30.8%	8.8%	3.7	-0.9	.278	C	Balanced	Normal
6	Denzer Guzman 3B · bats R	53.4%	27.1%	7.8%	3.6	-1.1	.270	F	Balanced	Hot
7	Josh Lowe RF · bats L	52.8%	29.5%	10.0%	3.5	-0.7	.271	F	Balanced	Normal
8	Christian Moore 2B · bats R	49.7%	25.6%	9.0%	3.4	-0.5	.299	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Bryce Teodosio CF · bats R	50.5%	23.8%	6.7%	3.3	+0.0	.298	F	Balanced	Normal

Mariners lineup

Projected · facing Ryan Johnson RHP