MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · SF · batting 4Bo Davidson
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.322wOBA vs LHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · LADBlake Snell
Throws leftBTB Stuff 116Trending Down
6.7projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Blake Snell's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 96.1 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +18.8″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .327 vs league .326 (about even).Fastball 50%Curveball: 22% usage, 79.8 mph, -13.8″ arm side, -8.8″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .259 vs league .257 (about even).Curveball 22%Changeup: 18% usage, 84.5 mph, +13.1″ arm side, +8.2″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .322 vs league .320 (about even).Changeup 18%Slider: 10% usage, 88.6 mph, -3.7″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Bo Davidson: wOBA .322 vs league .321 (about even).Slider 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bo Davidson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bo Davidson's last 8 balls in playHit (3)Out (5)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 70.2 mph at 19°Single: 102.3 mph at -4°Out: 61.7 mph at -32°Out: 87.0 mph at 2°Single: 105.1 mph at 10°Out: 74.3 mph at 6°Out: 101.9 mph at -2°Single: 103.8 mph at 18°
50% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.8%61.9%-5.1
2+ total bases28.2%33.7%-5.5
Home run6.6%10.7%-4.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.2
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.7
Park
-1.3
Home run
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Bo Davidson against each of Blake Snell's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%96.1+6″ / +19″.327.32620.2%21.9%1Little history vs this shape
Curveball22%79.8-14″ / -9″.259.25726.6%27.3%1Little history vs this shape
Changeup18%84.5+13″ / +8″.322.32027.0%27.9%1Little history vs this shape
Slider10%88.6-4″ / +7″.322.32128.3%29.1%1Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bo Davidson · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.500.500.500.450.5060.0%0.0%12.5%84.8105.10.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G24.500.500.500.450.5060.0%0.0%12.5%84.8105.10.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G24.500.500.500.450.5060.0%0.0%12.5%84.8105.10.0%50.0%50.0%
90 days24.500.500.500.450.5060.0%0.0%12.5%84.8105.10.0%50.0%50.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 4 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 50%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 30 G27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
90 days27.167.286.167.229.32728.6%14.3%23.1%91.8103.80.0%50.0%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 4 balls in play
Ground 75%Line drive 25%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G311.300.364.300.309.39218.2%9.1%19.0%88.3105.10.0%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G311.300.364.300.309.39218.2%9.1%19.0%88.3105.10.0%50.0%37.5%
Last 30 G311.300.364.300.309.39218.2%9.1%19.0%88.3105.10.0%50.0%37.5%
90 days311.300.364.300.309.39218.2%9.1%19.0%88.3105.10.0%50.0%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 8 balls in play
Ground 63%Line drive 38%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 0%
FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .382running 71 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/3
2+ total bases0/3
Home run0/3

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 8 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPCurveball85.670.219.728Out
Sep 23LHPSinker95.6102.3-4.369Single
Sep 23LHPSlider89.261.7-32.058Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.987.02.320Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.9105.110.869Single
Sep 21RHPChangeup85.974.36.252Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.7101.9-2.414Out
Sep 21RHPCutter91.0103.818.608Single
Last 3 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23311000
Sep 22411011
Sep 21411001

Two strikes

Blake Snell LAD · LHPwith two strikes
Blake Snell with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%42%28.0%23.9%18.6%
Curveball22%36%33.3%22.4%21.3%
Changeup18%12%17.6%20.0%18.3%
Slider10%10%27.3%20.0%21.6%
Bo Davidson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bo Davidson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%42.7%44.1%
Whiff%22.3%22.7%
Contact%77.7%77.3%
Chase%37.9%38.1%
wOBA.222.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.2%23.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.315
K%22.8%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%26.4%
Avg EV88.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

4 PA
wOBA.322
xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his
RV/1000.07
Hard-hit%28.1%
K%21.4%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Blake SnellLHP · LAD vs SF
6.7projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.8 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 10.4%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.5%10%45 strikeouts: 14.0%14%56 strikeouts: 15.4%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.2%12%89+ strikeouts: 22.8%23%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.6%
BB%10.0%
Whiff%15.6%
Velo89.5
BTB Stuff116
Location102
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%12196.010.2%
Curveball22%10579.716.0%
Changeup18%11384.425.5%
Slider10%12588.627.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1110135%18%9%.227
Sep 410130%14%17%.287
Aug 299946%16%5%.305

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Blake Snell LAD · LHPvsSF lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bo Davidson: every projection we've made →