MLBengine v14
← LAD at SF, Sep 26, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · lineup projected
Hitter · LAD · batting 6Max Muncy
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.332wOBA vs LHP.298xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · SFMatt Wilkinson
Throws leftBTB Stuff 85Trending Up
3.0projected K18%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Matt Wilkinson's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 58% usage, 90.5 mph, +11.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Max Muncy: wOBA .351 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 58%Changeup: 23% usage, 83.8 mph, +14.5″ arm side, +8.7″ rise. Max Muncy: wOBA .305 vs league .302 (about even).Changeup 23%Slider: 14% usage, 79.2 mph, -10.3″ arm side, +1.6″ rise. Max Muncy: wOBA .294 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 14%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -1.0″ arm side, +5.0″ rise. Max Muncy: wOBA .327 vs league .323 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Max Muncy's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Max Muncy's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.2 mph at 67°Out: 76.1 mph at 41°Out: 94.4 mph at 21°Out: 98.2 mph at 32°Out: 60.6 mph at 29°Out: 71.3 mph at -7°Out: 60.4 mph at 43°Single: 67.5 mph at 36°Single: 94.3 mph at -18°Out: 68.0 mph at -13°Out: 60.2 mph at -38°Double: 103.4 mph at 9°Double: 109.9 mph at 17°Out: 76.3 mph at -27°Out: 63.1 mph at -54°Home run: 106.1 mph at 29°Double: 106.0 mph at 14°Single: 77.0 mph at 20°Out: 69.9 mph at 8°Out: 91.7 mph at 20°Out: 85.0 mph at 51°Out: 41.6 mph at 26°Out: 62.4 mph at -17°Out: 92.5 mph at 48°Out: 71.8 mph at 0°Out: 99.6 mph at 34°Out: 95.0 mph at 26°Home run: 105.6 mph at 34°Out: 96.4 mph at 41°Out: 104.1 mph at 19°Single: 103.2 mph at 6°Single: 100.9 mph at -15°Single: 71.5 mph at 6°Out: 94.0 mph at -4°Home run: 98.9 mph at 30°Single: 101.0 mph at 16°Out: 90.6 mph at 67°Double: 96.4 mph at 26°Double: 95.4 mph at 14°Out: 67.7 mph at 57°
43% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.6%55.3%+0.3
2+ total bases34.0%35.5%-1.5
Home run12.6%15.8%-3.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
+0.8
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-2.4
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-2.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Max Muncy against each of Matt Wilkinson's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball58%90.5+12″ / +14″.351.34715.3%12.7%19About league average vs these
Changeup23%83.8+15″ / +9″.305.30241.0%33.3%3Little history vs this shape
Slider14%79.2-10″ / +2″.294.29036.3%28.5%7Little history vs this shape
Cutter6%83.9-1″ / +5″.327.32333.5%29.0%11About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Max Muncy · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.143.143.143.129.09528.6%0.0%21.4%84.396.20.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1016.267.312.467.338.26837.5%0.0%33.3%88.8106.111.1%44.4%44.4%
Last 30 G1832.269.406.462.384.33025.0%15.6%28.8%90.4106.15.6%50.0%44.4%
90 days4169.258.333.484.353.29030.4%8.7%30.1%91.1108.37.3%46.3%36.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 24%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 20%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.250.250.417.358.30025.0%0.0%28.6%79.5109.911.1%33.3%44.4%
Last 15 G1543.250.302.500.363.31725.6%2.3%25.6%84.9109.910.3%41.4%41.4%
Last 30 G3081.239.333.451.354.33724.7%9.9%24.2%86.3109.99.8%47.1%39.2%
90 days69199.231.327.474.360.32825.1%11.1%27.3%88.6110.211.3%44.4%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 124 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 23%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.211.211.316.274.22526.3%0.0%26.2%81.2109.97.1%28.6%35.7%
Last 15 G1559.255.305.491.356.30428.8%1.7%27.5%85.8109.910.5%42.1%42.1%
Last 30 G30113.247.354.454.362.33524.8%11.5%25.4%87.3109.98.7%47.8%40.6%
90 days71268.238.328.477.358.31826.5%10.4%27.9%89.3110.210.3%44.8%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 165 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 23%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 15%
Max Muncy · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches88trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.349 / .338results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball92.796.267.010Out
Sep 23LHPSinker93.376.141.105Out
Sep 23LHPSinker94.194.421.222Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.398.232.529Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup91.560.629.514Out
Sep 22RHPSinker94.371.3-7.070Out
Sep 20LHPFastball90.360.443.183Out
Sep 20RHPCutter96.167.536.720Single
Sep 20LHPSinker96.894.3-18.146Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter82.168.0-13.054Double play
Sep 19RHPSlider85.260.2-38.096Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.9103.49.684Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300002
Sep 23300001
Sep 22400001
Sep 20422001
Sep 19524000
Sep 18214100
Sep 17523000
Sep 16200001
Sep 15400001
Sep 14400003

Two strikes

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPwith two strikes
Matt Wilkinson with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball58%62%19.0%22.0%18.6%
Changeup23%20%27.3%15.8%18.3%
Slider14%14%16.7%7.7%21.6%
Cutter6%5%25.0%20.0%17.8%
Max Muncy bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Max Muncy with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.5%44.1%
Whiff%26.7%22.7%
Contact%73.3%77.3%
Chase%41.1%38.1%
wOBA.217.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.2%19.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.356
K%26.3%
BB%11.5%
Whiff%12.7%
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV89.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

68 PA
wOBA.332
xwOBA vs this mix.298against pitches like his
RV/100-0.19
Hard-hit%27.5%
K%28.9%
BB%10.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF vs LAD
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 16.5 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.2%65%≤34 strikeouts: 16.6%17%45 strikeouts: 10.0%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.8%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%18.2%
BB%4.0%
Whiff%7.6%
Velo87.0
BTB Stuff85
Location107
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball55%8290.37.5%
Changeup25%8583.78.3%
Slider14%9679.17.1%
Cutter7%8683.65.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 207633%12%6%.189
Sep 46212%3%41%.594
Aug 299018%6%32%.186

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Matt Wilkinson SF · LHPvsLAD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameLAD @ SF →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Max Muncy: every projection we've made →