MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 26, 2026
12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 1Kevin McGonigle
Bats leftTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · PITTBD
Stable
4.3projected K–K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Kevin McGonigle's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 103.2 mph at 22°Single: 105.1 mph at 13°Single: 78.0 mph at -27°Out: 55.4 mph at -4°Single: 35.3 mph at -57°Double: 96.5 mph at 20°Out: 85.9 mph at -10°Out: 93.4 mph at 32°Out: 68.5 mph at 5°Out: 82.4 mph at 36°Out: 60.5 mph at 10°Out: 103.3 mph at -10°Out: 96.6 mph at 33°Single: 82.8 mph at 25°Triple: 103.8 mph at 28°Single: 81.7 mph at 19°Out: 94.3 mph at -9°Out: 98.7 mph at 32°Out: 102.5 mph at 7°Single: 69.3 mph at 15°Single: 79.6 mph at 3°Out: 98.7 mph at 36°Out: 87.8 mph at 65°Single: 88.6 mph at 14°Single: 96.8 mph at 14°Out: 99.6 mph at 2°Out: 100.9 mph at 35°Out: 33.0 mph at -72°Out: 83.4 mph at 39°Single: 99.9 mph at 12°Out: 68.9 mph at -21°Single: 101.5 mph at 12°Triple: 99.9 mph at 29°Out: 82.7 mph at -3°Out: 100.0 mph at 19°Home run: 106.0 mph at 23°Out: 97.4 mph at 22°Out: 100.8 mph at 16°Single: 92.0 mph at 7°Out: 63.3 mph at 24°
48% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.0%67.2%-0.1
2+ total bases40.3%40.3%-0.0
Home run14.0%13.8%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kevin McGonigle · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.267.500.310.42313.3%0.0%8.3%90.9105.115.4%46.2%46.2%
Last 15 G1554.348.426.674.474.46213.0%13.0%11.1%87.9108.412.5%45.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2894.259.351.494.373.41111.7%12.8%10.6%88.3108.49.9%43.7%45.1%
90 days68240.288.383.483.387.37911.7%13.3%11.7%87.6108.47.3%39.3%41.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 27%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.444.545.556.550.28027.3%18.2%18.8%74.498.70.0%33.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1118.312.389.375.386.30022.2%11.1%14.8%81.6101.50.0%41.7%41.7%
Last 30 G2045.275.356.350.357.34515.6%11.1%21.3%84.3106.06.1%33.3%33.3%
90 days51107.237.318.312.310.28020.6%11.2%21.1%88.1106.04.1%35.6%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 18%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G526.348.385.522.412.36319.2%7.7%12.5%85.7105.110.5%42.1%47.4%
Last 15 G1572.339.417.597.452.42115.3%12.5%12.0%86.5108.49.6%44.2%48.1%
Last 30 G30139.264.353.446.368.39012.9%12.2%14.0%87.0108.48.7%40.4%41.3%
90 days74347.272.363.430.363.34914.4%12.7%14.5%87.8108.46.4%38.2%38.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 251 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 9%
Kevin McGonigle · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches80trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .369results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPSweeper84.1103.222.927Double
Sep 23RHPSinker98.5105.113.824Single
Sep 23LHPFastball90.378.0-27.040Single
Sep 23LHPSinker88.455.4-4.109Out
Sep 22LHPSlider83.235.3-57.266Single
Sep 22LHPSlider85.896.520.340Double
Sep 20RHPFastball92.785.9-10.119Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.293.432.178Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.368.55.208Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.782.436.025Sac fly
Sep 19RHPFastball94.760.510.142Out
Sep 19RHPFastball99.9103.3-10.283Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23534001
Sep 22523003
Sep 20500011
Sep 19511000
Sep 18624010
Sep 17522011
Sep 16522001
Sep 15400030
Sep 14522000
Sep 13413010

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kevin McGonigle: every projection we've made →