MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 26, 2026
6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 6Bryan Torres
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedCold
.296wOBA vs RHP.280xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MILDustin May
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
4.0projected K23%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dustin May's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Cutter: 26% usage, 93.4 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +9.1″ rise. Bryan Torres: wOBA .354 vs league .361 (about even).Cutter 26%Sinker: 23% usage, 96.7 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.4″ rise. Bryan Torres: wOBA .339 vs league .347 (about even).Sinker 23%Fastball: 22% usage, 96.9 mph, +9.4″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Bryan Torres: wOBA .337 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 22%Sweeper: 16% usage, 86.3 mph, -15.4″ arm side, -3.7″ rise. Bryan Torres: wOBA .296 vs league .304 (about even).Sweeper 16%Curveball: 8% usage, 84.1 mph, -8.0″ arm side, -15.6″ rise. Bryan Torres: wOBA .266 vs league .273 (about even).Curveball 8%Changeup: 5% usage, 90.0 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +5.2″ rise. Bryan Torres: wOBA .276 vs league .283 (about even).Changeup 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Bryan Torres's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Bryan Torres's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 61.1 mph at -21°Out: 86.8 mph at -1°Out: 93.9 mph at 10°Out: 97.5 mph at 54°Out: 96.7 mph at 36°Out: 94.4 mph at 27°Out: 89.1 mph at 42°Out: 64.3 mph at 55°Out: 90.2 mph at 9°Out: 74.5 mph at 32°Out: 69.2 mph at -17°Single: 98.8 mph at 11°Out: 81.1 mph at 60°Out: 74.1 mph at 67°Out: 83.4 mph at -10°Out: 92.2 mph at 29°Single: 94.7 mph at -7°Out: 82.7 mph at 47°Out: 73.3 mph at -38°Single: 87.1 mph at 15°Out: 80.7 mph at -1°Out: 97.2 mph at -3°Out: 77.7 mph at -6°Single: 88.2 mph at 20°Single: 103.5 mph at 13°Out: 89.3 mph at 43°Out: 72.8 mph at 83°Out: 101.2 mph at 6°Single: 71.4 mph at -8°Out: 96.6 mph at 40°Single: 92.5 mph at 12°Single: 86.1 mph at 15°Single: 96.7 mph at 6°Single: 20.8 mph at 59°Out: 86.0 mph at 10°Out: 91.0 mph at 40°Out: 61.3 mph at -80°Single: 80.2 mph at 21°Out: 89.6 mph at -16°Single: 91.9 mph at -4°
20% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.3%56.5%-1.3
2+ total bases29.2%30.0%-0.8
Home run8.4%8.0%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Bryan Torres against each of Dustin May's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Cutter26%93.4-2″ / +9″.354.36118.6%17.8%15About league average vs these
Sinker23%96.7+17″ / +6″.339.34711.9%11.7%18About league average vs these
Fastball22%96.9+9″ / +15″.337.34518.1%18.0%40About league average vs these
Sweeper16%86.3-15″ / -4″.296.30424.4%28.1%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball8%84.1-8″ / -16″.266.27330.2%34.5%4Little history vs this shape
Changeup5%90.0+15″ / +5″.276.28324.9%26.9%16About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Bryan Torres · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.19238.5%15.4%27.3%87.197.50.0%16.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1549.175.306.175.243.26922.4%16.3%20.3%85.3103.50.0%20.0%33.3%
Last 30 G2778.215.321.215.272.26323.1%14.1%21.6%86.0103.50.0%18.4%30.6%
90 days47119.238.311.324.295.27623.5%10.1%19.9%87.6104.72.5%27.8%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 25%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G11.000.000.000.000.2610.0%0.0%0.0%96.796.70.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G11.000.000.000.000.2610.0%0.0%0.0%96.796.70.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 30 G914.250.357.250.293.28814.3%7.1%16.7%80.696.70.0%20.0%40.0%
90 days1217.200.294.200.256.27011.8%5.9%13.0%79.196.70.0%16.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 12 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 33%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.000.143.000.100.19735.7%14.3%26.1%88.597.50.0%28.6%28.6%
Last 15 G1550.171.300.171.238.26922.0%16.0%20.0%85.7103.50.0%22.6%32.3%
Last 30 G3092.221.326.221.275.26721.7%13.0%21.1%85.1103.50.0%18.6%32.2%
90 days50136.233.309.308.290.27622.1%9.6%19.3%86.5104.72.2%26.4%36.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 91 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 9%
Bryan Torres · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating25Below average
Last 100 pitches4trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.284 / .290results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPSplitter91.961.1-21.039Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper83.986.8-1.224Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup92.093.910.628Out
Sep 20RHPSinker91.397.554.005Out
Sep 20LHPFastball91.696.736.261Out
Sep 18RHPCutter93.994.427.202Out
Sep 18RHPFastball94.389.142.000Out
Sep 15RHPFastball94.664.355.022Out
Sep 15RHPFastball94.790.29.516Out
Sep 15RHPSweeper83.974.532.219Out
Sep 13RHPChangeup90.269.2-17.057Out
Sep 9RHPCurveball83.398.811.855Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300010
Sep 22300002
Sep 20300001
Sep 18400002
Sep 16100010
Sep 15400010
Sep 13300002
Sep 9311000
Sep 8511010
Sep 7511010

Two strikes

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sweeper16%26%17.0%16.9%19.3%
Fastball22%25%15.2%17.3%18.0%
Cutter26%18%27.5%22.4%17.9%
Sinker23%18%21.9%22.8%16.9%
Curveball8%8%38.5%18.5%20.1%
Changeup5%4%33.3%23.1%18.6%
Other0%0%–0.0%21.7%
Bryan Torres bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Bryan Torres with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.1%41.0%
Whiff%20.5%21.3%
Contact%79.5%78.7%
Chase%38.4%39.6%
wOBA.243.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.0%20.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%22.4%
BB%8.8%
Whiff%9.3%
Barrel%3.3%
Hard-hit%21.4%
Avg EV87.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

119 PA
wOBA.296
xwOBA vs this mix.280against pitches like his
RV/100-0.60
Hard-hit%19.1%
K%23.3%
BB%9.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL
4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 43.1%43%≤34 strikeouts: 19.4%19%45 strikeouts: 15.7%16%56 strikeouts: 10.4%10%67 strikeouts: 6.1%6%78 strikeouts: 3.0%3%89+ strikeouts: 2.3%2%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%23.3%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%10.6%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff107
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Cutter27%11293.313.1%
Sinker22%11296.68.3%
Fastball22%9796.910.2%
Sweeper16%11286.27.7%
Curveball8%10983.913.9%
Changeup5%8289.918.0%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 187027%14%20%.550
Sep 118427%14%27%.155
Sep 55633%21%33%.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Bryan Torres: every projection we've made →