Dustin May

MIL · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 26 · 6:10 PM CT

Dustin MayRHP · MIL vs STL

4.0projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 17.8 batters over 4.2 innings

Over 4.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 63%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%23.3%

BB%10.2%

Whiff%10.6%

Velo92.9

BTB Stuff107

Location97

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Cutter27%11293.313.1%

Sinker22%11296.68.3%

Fastball22%9796.910.2%

Sweeper16%11286.27.7%

Curveball8%10983.913.9%

Changeup5%8289.918.0%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 18	70	27%	14%	20%	.550
Sep 11	84	27%	14%	27%	.155
Sep 5	56	33%	21%	33%	.373

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameSTL @ MIL →American Family Field

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Cutter	Hard	26%	93.4	-1.6″	+9.1″
Sinker	Hard	23%	96.7	+17.3″	+6.4″
Fastball	Hard	22%	96.9	+9.4″	+15.2″
Sweeper	Breaking	16%	86.3	-15.4″	-3.7″
Curveball	Breaking	8%	84.1	-8.0″	-15.6″
Changeup	Offspeed	5%	90.0	+15.2″	+5.2″

The lineup he faces

Dustin May MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1JJ Wetherholt18%

2Iván Herrera24%

3Alec Burleson20%

4Jordan Walker27%

5Leo Bernal23%

6Bryan Torres23%

7Thomas Saggese18%

8Nathan Church14%

9Masyn Winn23%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Dustin May MIL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sweeper+10 pts

Fastball+3 pts

Cutter-8 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Curveball+1 pts

Changeup-1 pts

Other+0 pts

Dustin May with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sweeper	16%	26%	17.0%	16.9%	19.3%
Fastball	22%	25%	15.2%	17.3%	18.0%
Cutter	26%	18%	27.5%	22.4%	17.9%
Sinker	23%	18%	21.9%	22.8%	16.9%
Curveball	8%	8%	38.5%	18.5%	20.1%
Changeup	5%	4%	33.3%	23.1%	18.6%
Other	0%	0%	–	0.0%	21.7%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts6BTB expected 8.8 over 2 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 2over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Dustin May · projection vs strikeouts, every startProjectedOver the lineUnderBook line

6 strikeouts in 2 settled starts against 8.8 projected. A few starts say little about the model on their own.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 22	PHI	3.9	3.5	54.0%	45.7%	2
Sep 18	BAL	4.9	5.5	37.1%	47.4%	4