MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 4Jake Burger
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.260wOBA vs RHP.280xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MINBailey Ober
Throws rightBTB Stuff 82Trending Up
4.4projected K18%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Bailey Ober's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 32% usage, 87.5 mph, +5.6″ arm side, +15.1″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .346 vs league .368 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 32%Changeup: 31% usage, 82.3 mph, +17.3″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .329 vs league .352 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 31%Slider: 20% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .304 vs league .326 (pitcher's edge).Slider 20%Sweeper: 14% usage, 75.7 mph, -12.6″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .283 vs league .306 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 14%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Burger's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Burger's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 87.1 mph at 43°Out: 81.6 mph at 5°Out: 70.9 mph at -8°Out: 78.4 mph at -7°Out: 94.5 mph at 38°Single: 99.8 mph at -3°Out: 74.6 mph at 50°Out: 93.9 mph at -22°Out: 97.8 mph at 37°Home run: 106.7 mph at 37°Out: 78.7 mph at 44°Out: 105.4 mph at 43°Out: 95.9 mph at 20°Double: 107.1 mph at 25°Out: 107.9 mph at -22°Out: 80.3 mph at -25°Out: 85.8 mph at 9°Single: 85.0 mph at -12°Out: 88.6 mph at -13°Double: 110.2 mph at 18°Out: 92.9 mph at 58°Out: 101.9 mph at -5°Out: 78.9 mph at 76°Out: 90.4 mph at 22°Out: 64.2 mph at 61°Out: 85.6 mph at 65°Single: 71.4 mph at -1°Out: 75.2 mph at -45°Out: 58.6 mph at 6°Out: 91.4 mph at 1°Out: 89.6 mph at -12°Out: 109.6 mph at 16°Home run: 105.1 mph at 25°Home run: 105.7 mph at 26°Home run: 103.9 mph at 26°Single: 86.8 mph at 13°Out: 70.3 mph at 30°Out: 84.9 mph at 29°Single: 86.9 mph at -11°Out: 101.3 mph at 44°
35% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.7%58.2%+1.5
2+ total bases37.8%37.0%+0.8
Home run16.6%16.7%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.5
Pitch mix
-2.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
-2.1
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.1
Home run
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
-1.3
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Burger against each of Bailey Ober's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball32%87.5+6″ / +15″.346.36825.0%16.2%38About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup31%82.3+17″ / +6″.329.35238.0%28.2%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider20%82.5-5″ / +7″.304.32633.8%25.5%25About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper14%75.7-13″ / +2″.283.30654.0%44.2%14About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Burger · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.182.182.455.264.24236.4%0.0%31.8%90.5106.714.3%42.9%0.0%
Last 15 G1337.107.297.214.254.27132.4%21.6%37.5%86.8107.95.9%29.4%11.8%
Last 30 G2872.182.347.273.296.31730.6%19.4%37.4%88.2109.58.6%31.4%25.7%
90 days70186.173.269.290.255.27229.0%10.8%33.5%88.6112.99.1%39.1%22.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 14%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.125.000.200.18225.0%12.5%23.1%87.1105.40.0%20.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1025.182.280.409.336.35724.0%12.0%30.2%91.8110.225.0%37.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2147.238.319.667.424.47621.3%10.6%27.4%94.6110.731.2%56.2%34.4%
90 days46103.255.320.564.382.40225.2%8.7%30.7%91.8112.623.5%52.9%35.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.111.158.278.237.21731.6%5.3%28.6%89.1106.78.3%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1562.140.290.300.287.30629.0%17.7%34.8%89.2110.215.2%33.3%21.2%
Last 30 G30119.206.336.443.347.38026.9%16.0%33.8%91.3110.719.4%43.3%29.9%
90 days73289.203.287.391.301.31827.7%10.0%32.5%89.8112.914.6%44.4%27.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Jake Burger · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating62Average
Last 100 pitches90trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.298 / .328running 30 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.187.143.008Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper81.181.65.312Double play
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.370.9-8.063Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.078.4-7.077Force out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.394.538.118Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.899.8-3.327Single
Sep 23RHPSinker96.174.650.073Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.193.9-22.126Error
Sep 20RHPSlider88.097.837.297Out
Sep 20RHPCutter87.6106.7371.457Home run
Sep 20RHPSlider74.178.744.073Out
Sep 19LHPSweeper84.8105.443.487Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400000
Sep 23311000
Sep 22400003
Sep 20414110
Sep 19400003
Sep 18512021
Sep 17400010
Sep 16523011
Sep 15400011
Sep 13400001

Two strikes

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Bailey Ober with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup31%34%15.3%11.5%18.6%
Fastball32%26%10.7%8.8%18.0%
Sweeper14%22%41.7%25.4%19.3%
Slider20%16%17.2%18.0%21.0%
Sinker3%1%0.0%0.0%16.9%
Curveball1%0%–0.0%20.1%
Jake Burger bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Burger with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.6%42.4%
Whiff%29.7%22.2%
Contact%70.3%77.8%
Chase%43.9%39.8%
wOBA.219.238
Whiff vs his put-away shapes33.2%25.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.300
K%27.6%
BB%9.2%
Whiff%15.5%
Barrel%9.0%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV89.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

181 PA
wOBA.260
xwOBA vs this mix.280against pitches like his
RV/100-1.27
Hard-hit%23.9%
K%29.0%
BB%10.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Bailey OberRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.4projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 22.1 batters over 5.2 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 35.8%36%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.8%17%56 strikeouts: 12.4%12%67 strikeouts: 7.9%8%78 strikeouts: 4.4%4%89+ strikeouts: 3.7%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.7%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%9.2%
Velo83.1
BTB Stuff82
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball32%7787.56.3%
Changeup31%8382.28.9%
Slider20%8882.47.0%
Sweeper14%8875.619.9%
Sinker2%5988.40.0%
Curveball1%8672.611.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 1510111%7%41%.393
Sep 68429%13%24%.338
Aug 298025%5%15%.222

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Bailey Ober MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.6%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Burger: every projection we've made →