MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 26, 2026
3:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · MIN · batting 4Ryan Jeffers
Bats rightTalent grade ——Normal
–wOBA vs RHP–xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TEXTBD
Stable
4.2projected K–K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Ryan Jeffers's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 95.8 mph at -6°Out: 90.3 mph at 43°Out: 83.5 mph at 83°Out: 52.8 mph at 10°Out: 84.2 mph at 43°Out: 97.8 mph at 19°Out: 65.9 mph at 7°Out: 101.0 mph at -21°Out: 97.1 mph at -1°Out: 68.8 mph at -20°Out: 104.3 mph at 18°Single: 97.7 mph at 14°Out: 74.1 mph at 3°Out: 95.1 mph at 61°Out: 80.4 mph at 39°Out: 50.6 mph at 15°Out: 88.2 mph at 40°Out: 82.3 mph at 30°Single: 102.0 mph at 1°Out: 93.5 mph at 34°Out: 92.4 mph at -8°Single: 95.5 mph at -13°Double: 99.6 mph at 12°Out: 93.3 mph at 25°Out: 80.7 mph at 24°Out: 64.0 mph at -4°Out: 104.6 mph at 28°Out: 103.3 mph at 1°Out: 107.4 mph at 3°Home run: 105.6 mph at 30°Out: 86.1 mph at 41°Out: 49.4 mph at 9°Out: 101.7 mph at -11°Out: 98.3 mph at -8°Out: 86.0 mph at 36°Out: 72.0 mph at -41°Double: 103.6 mph at 18°Out: 90.7 mph at -32°Out: 100.4 mph at 3°Out: 94.3 mph at 34°
45% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.2%61.8%+0.3
2+ total bases35.4%35.2%+0.3
Home run10.1%10.5%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ryan Jeffers · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.000.000.000.16737.5%0.0%28.6%90.3104.30.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1333.103.182.172.221.26824.2%6.1%19.3%90.5104.64.5%45.5%36.4%
Last 30 G2670.194.271.452.332.32721.4%8.6%17.2%89.1108.314.6%45.8%39.6%
90 days48133.217.286.417.318.30419.5%7.5%17.6%86.9109.68.4%40.0%33.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 95 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 19%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.222.300.222.244.21320.0%10.0%23.5%84.0101.00.0%42.9%28.6%
Last 15 G1328.154.214.269.215.23828.6%7.1%21.1%85.8107.45.6%44.4%27.8%
Last 30 G2247.167.255.286.244.27721.3%10.6%13.2%86.7108.13.1%40.6%28.1%
90 days3780.235.350.382.331.32520.0%15.0%12.4%87.0108.13.8%38.5%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 52 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.125.167.125.129.19127.8%5.6%25.8%86.6104.30.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1561.127.197.218.218.25426.2%6.6%20.0%88.4107.45.0%45.0%32.5%
Last 30 G30117.183.265.385.298.30821.4%9.4%15.8%88.1108.310.0%43.8%35.0%
90 days53213.223.310.404.323.31219.7%10.3%15.8%86.9109.66.8%39.5%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 147 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 21%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
Ryan Jeffers · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating66Above average
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .331results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.795.8-6.214Single
Sep 23LHPFastball92.790.343.015Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.083.583.008Out
Sep 19LHPFastball94.452.810.100Out
Sep 19LHPFastball94.484.243.017Out
Sep 19RHPSinker96.697.819.380Out
Sep 19LHPSlider86.665.97.195Out
Sep 19LHPCutter88.4101.0-21.102Out
Sep 18RHPFastball93.697.1-1.309Out
Sep 18RHPCurveball78.968.8-20.029Out
Sep 18RHPSlider83.9104.318.608Sac fly
Sep 18LHPSinker89.397.714.873Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23411002
Sep 21400003
Sep 19500000
Sep 18411000
Sep 17100010
Sep 16500013
Sep 14400001
Sep 13400002
Sep 11411001
Sep 8423010

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent grade—— type
wOBA–
K%–
BB%–
Whiff%–
Barrel%–
Hard-hit%–
Avg EV–

Against right-handers, last 90 days

0 PA
wOBA–
xwOBA vs this mix–against pitches like his
RV/100–
Hard-hit%–
K%–
BB%–

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces

Starter not announced.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ryan Jeffers: every projection we've made →