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Caleb Durbin

BOS · Hitter · 7 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Caleb Durbin · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.400.500.600.492.36315.4%15.4%10.7%70.289.80.0%0.0%66.7%
Last 15 G1434.333.438.407.400.33714.7%11.8%11.9%76.396.60.0%13.0%52.2%
Last 30 G2879.279.421.311.371.34011.4%15.2%14.9%77.7103.90.0%20.4%37.0%
90 days74223.276.390.365.364.31113.0%12.1%14.3%78.0107.91.3%18.7%33.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.000.000.000.129.27714.3%0.0%26.7%84.5101.80.0%50.0%16.7%
Last 15 G1025.211.400.421.406.3808.0%16.0%17.1%84.5106.311.8%41.2%17.6%
Last 30 G1637.133.297.267.293.31221.6%13.5%24.6%82.3106.39.1%31.8%22.7%
90 days4599.244.337.395.351.31413.1%9.1%17.0%83.1107.44.1%26.0%35.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 73 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.235.316.353.358.33115.0%10.0%16.3%75.9101.80.0%20.0%46.7%
Last 15 G1559.283.421.413.403.35611.9%13.6%14.0%79.8106.35.0%25.0%37.5%
Last 30 G30116.231.381.297.346.33114.7%14.7%18.1%79.0106.32.6%23.7%32.9%
90 days78322.266.373.375.360.31213.0%11.2%15.2%79.6107.92.2%21.1%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 228 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 14%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball92.597.833.423Out
Sep 24LHPFastball92.851.227.131Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.988.1-32.064Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup82.999.63.501Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup84.068.4-54.280Error
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.289.830.094Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.7101.85.541Out
Sep 22RHPSlider86.717.716–Sac bunt
Sep 20RHPSweeper86.371.926.840Single
Sep 20RHPSinker95.664.94.146Out
Sep 20RHPSlider85.571.328.819Single
Sep 19RHPFastball97.165.752.058Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24400011
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400011
Sep 20422001
Sep 19424000
Sep 18422000
Sep 17400010
Sep 16400020
Sep 15411001
Sep 13414110
FormHot
Contact rating51Average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .317running 29 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeCContact type
wOBA.351
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%16.1%
K%13.2%
BB%10.5%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Caleb Durbin · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Caleb Durbin · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Ian Seymour: 51.9% · 2 HSep 19 vs Freddy Peralta: 52.1% · 2 HSep 20 vs Griffin Jax: 53.0% · 2 HSep 22 vs Parker Messick: 54.8% · no hitSep 23 vs Foster Griffin: 60.2% · no hitSep 24 vs Daniel Espino: 57.1% · no hitSep 25 vs Clay Holmes: 59.5% · no hitSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 3 of 7 settled games; the projections added up to 3.9. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

7 settled games
Games with a hit3 of 7BTB expected 3.9
Games with 2+ TB3 of 7BTB expected 1.9
Games with a HR0 of 7BTB expected 0.4
Talent gradeCwOBA .351 · K% 13.2%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Clay Holmes59.5%28.7%3.6%4000
Sep 24Daniel Espino57.1%25.6%4.6%4000
Sep 23Foster Griffin60.2%29.3%5.2%4000
Sep 22Parker Messick54.8%25.6%5.3%4000
Sep 20Griffin Jax53.0%27.3%5.5%4220
Sep 19Freddy Peralta52.1%25.3%5.6%4240
Sep 18Ian Seymour51.9%23.4%7.2%4220
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.