Freddy Peralta

TB · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 5:40 PM CT

Freddy PeraltaRHP · TB vs PHI

4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 22.4 batters over 5.1 innings

Over 4.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%20.8%

BB%8.1%

Whiff%11.4%

Velo89.6

BTB Stuff107

Location103

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball53%12694.79.7%

Changeup24%8887.312.5%

Curveball13%6979.113.4%

Sweeper8%10182.514.2%

Slider1%7882.911.1%

Offspeed1%–73.928.6%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	97	26%	12%	9%	.290
Sep 13	86	22%	9%	6%	.117
Sep 8	92	8%	4%	50%	.217

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameTB @ PHI →Citizens Bank Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	53%	94.5	+6.8″	+16.9″
Changeup	Offspeed	24%	87.3	+17.2″	+4.4″
Curveball	Breaking	13%	79.2	-4.3″	-3.5″
Sweeper	Breaking	8%	82.4	-10.2″	+5.9″

The lineup he faces

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Kyle Schwarber31%

2Trea Turner22%

3Bryce Harper20%

4Alec Bohm17%

5Bryson Stott16%

6Brandon Marsh22%

7Bryan De La Cruz22%

8Justin Crawford14%

9J.T. Realmuto24%

10Edmundo Sosa22%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Freddy Peralta TB · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-6 pts

Changeup+3 pts

Curveball+0 pts

Sweeper+2 pts

Offspeed+1 pts

Slider+0 pts

Freddy Peralta with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	53%	48%	13.9%	15.0%	18.0%
Changeup	24%	27%	25.9%	16.0%	18.6%
Curveball	13%	13%	23.5%	19.6%	20.0%
Sweeper	8%	10%	29.2%	17.9%	19.3%
Offspeed	1%	2%	40.0%	28.6%	13.1%
Slider	1%	1%	0.0%	0.0%	21.1%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts6BTB expected 4.7 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line0 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	PHI	4.9	4.5	55.8%	44.1%	not settled
Sep 19	BOS	4.7	4.5	49.8%	57.4%	6