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Jake McCarthy

COL · Hitter · 7 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Jake McCarthy · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.182.182.182.180.24318.2%0.0%25.0%70.3100.30.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1436.229.250.314.256.30613.9%0.0%16.9%81.5105.03.4%24.1%34.5%
Last 30 G2977.264.299.431.319.35113.0%3.9%12.1%86.6106.86.5%35.5%37.1%
90 days72218.282.309.442.331.32014.2%3.7%17.5%84.3110.44.5%33.0%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 176 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.444.378.15311.1%0.0%23.5%75.2104.70.0%12.5%12.5%
Last 15 G1128.423.464.731.536.35610.7%3.6%14.9%81.2104.813.0%26.1%34.8%
Last 30 G2558.346.414.538.428.34012.1%5.2%18.7%82.7104.86.7%26.7%35.6%
90 days56126.304.376.554.406.36013.5%5.6%18.5%81.3108.26.2%29.2%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 96 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 28%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.200.200.300.274.20115.0%0.0%24.2%72.8104.70.0%18.8%18.8%
Last 15 G1564.311.344.492.380.32812.5%1.6%16.0%81.4105.07.7%25.0%34.6%
Last 30 G30135.298.348.476.366.34612.6%4.4%15.0%85.0106.86.5%31.8%36.4%
90 days77344.289.333.481.359.33514.0%4.4%17.9%83.2110.45.1%31.6%39.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 272 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 25%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 7%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPCurveball77.280.662.026Out
Sep 24LHPCutter87.989.471.000Out
Sep 24LHPFastball90.182.8-13.095Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball82.248.1-58.260Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup87.494.91.444Single
Sep 23LHPSinker97.044.9-23.227Out
Sep 23RHPFastball92.098.416.628Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper77.7100.39.676Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup86.775.1-17.072Force out
Sep 20LHPSlider88.9104.73.505Triple
Sep 20RHPFastball96.845.874.003Out
Sep 20LHPSinker93.781.228.184Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24311000
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400002
Sep 20413001
Sep 19511000
Sep 18535001
Sep 17313000
Sep 16400011
Sep 15522000
Sep 14525000
FormCold
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches30trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .340running 17 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.336
Barrel%4.2%
Hard-hit%24.5%
K%15.0%
BB%4.6%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Jake McCarthy · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Jake McCarthy · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Bryan Woo: 71.9% · 3 HSep 19 vs Bryce Miller: 73.1% · 1 HSep 20 vs Kade Anderson: 73.8% · 1 HSep 22 vs Michael Soroka: 72.1% · no hitSep 23 vs Merrill Kelly: 72.8% · 1 HSep 24 vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 68.0% · 1 HSep 25 vs Sean Burke: 67.8% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 5 of 6 settled games; the projections added up to 4.3. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

6 settled games
Games with a hit5 of 6BTB expected 4.3
Games with 2+ TB2 of 6BTB expected 2.7
Games with a HR0 of 6BTB expected 0.7
Talent gradeFwOBA .336 · K% 15.0%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Sean Burke67.8%36.9%8.7%not settled
Sep 24Eduardo Rodriguez68.0%35.8%9.1%3110
Sep 23Merrill Kelly72.8%43.5%13.7%4110
Sep 22Michael Soroka72.1%43.6%11.8%4000
Sep 20Kade Anderson73.8%49.8%10.2%4130
Sep 19Bryce Miller73.1%49.7%13.6%5110
Sep 18Bryan Woo71.9%43.4%11.8%5350
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.