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Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Nathan Lukes · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G415.308.333.308.287.3976.7%6.7%7.4%92.5101.10.0%53.8%53.8%
Last 15 G1340.270.300.297.269.28215.0%5.0%8.5%87.1101.13.1%34.4%40.6%
Last 30 G2886.312.349.450.359.32514.0%4.7%10.9%89.0105.05.8%42.0%39.1%
90 days71225.268.318.376.318.29912.9%6.7%12.4%86.6106.13.9%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 180 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 19%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G35.500.600.500.500.4100.0%20.0%10.0%87.1102.50.0%50.0%25.0%
Last 15 G511.556.600.556.610.4820.0%9.1%5.0%74.7102.50.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 30 G1223.381.409.571.466.2718.7%4.3%9.8%78.9102.50.0%20.0%30.0%
90 days3055.245.288.347.308.27416.4%3.6%10.8%79.9102.50.0%16.3%30.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 43 balls in play
Ground 65%Line drive 16%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.353.400.353.340.4005.0%10.0%8.1%91.3102.50.0%52.9%47.1%
Last 15 G1551.326.360.348.337.32211.8%5.9%7.8%84.2102.52.4%33.3%38.1%
Last 30 G30109.327.361.475.381.31412.8%4.6%10.6%86.7105.04.5%37.1%37.1%
90 days73280.264.313.370.316.29413.6%6.1%12.1%85.3106.13.1%30.0%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.3100.110.754Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.7101.122.675Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.797.18.627Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.497.3-17.146Fielder's choice
Sep 23LHPSinker93.190.31.241Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.984.27.334Out
Sep 23RHPSlider88.288.710.476Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.772.746.203Out
Sep 21RHPCutter89.179.7-31.054Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.494.810.689Single
Sep 21RHPSplitter90.196.2-9.227Double play
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.398.418.408Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23511001
Sep 23422000
Sep 21411010
Sep 20522010
Sep 19200000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16411001
Sep 15311001
Sep 14412001
Sep 13100010
FormHot
Contact rating40Below average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.303 / .307results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.318
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%24.4%
K%14.2%
BB%6.3%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Nathan Lukes · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Nathan Lukes · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Kumar Rocker: 60.3% · no hitSep 19 vs Cal Quantrill: 59.3% · no hitSep 20 vs Jacob deGrom: 56.6% · 2 HSep 23 vs Trey Gibson: 66.5% · 2 HSep 25 vs Nick Lodolo: 64.8% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 2 of 4 settled games; the projections added up to 2.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

4 settled games
Games with a hit2 of 4BTB expected 2.4
Games with 2+ TB2 of 4BTB expected 1.4
Games with a HR0 of 4BTB expected 0.3
Talent gradeFwOBA .318 · K% 14.2%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Nick Lodolo64.8%34.5%7.2%not settled
Sep 23Trey Gibson66.5%37.5%9.5%4220
Sep 20Jacob deGrom56.6%32.9%7.3%5220
Sep 19Cal Quantrill59.3%33.9%7.5%2000
Sep 18Kumar Rocker60.3%31.0%8.1%2000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.