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Corbin Carroll

ARI · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Corbin Carroll · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.231.312.385.320.24418.8%12.5%15.2%90.2105.60.0%50.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1548.233.271.465.313.33429.2%6.2%26.7%93.5110.710.0%56.7%23.3%
Last 30 G2786.200.256.373.271.31125.6%8.1%23.9%92.1110.78.9%42.9%23.2%
90 days71229.186.271.377.290.31923.1%10.5%23.5%92.1112.09.3%47.3%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 13%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.333.500.667.488.7820.0%25.0%0.0%103.6105.766.7%100.0%66.7%
Last 15 G913.333.385.750.469.57715.4%7.7%15.0%94.5105.730.0%70.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1839.250.308.500.367.41328.2%7.7%27.3%95.0108.820.0%64.0%44.0%
90 days5296.225.354.450.362.35525.0%13.5%23.1%91.8108.810.7%51.8%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 56 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 25%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.250.350.438.355.35815.0%15.0%13.5%93.3105.715.4%61.5%30.8%
Last 15 G1561.255.295.527.347.38826.2%6.6%24.8%93.8110.715.0%60.0%30.0%
Last 30 G30125.216.272.414.302.34326.4%8.0%24.7%93.0110.712.3%49.4%29.6%
90 days75325.197.295.398.312.33023.7%11.4%23.4%92.0112.09.7%48.5%30.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 206 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 17%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 16%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24RHPFastball90.985.77.388Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.880.5-12.080Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.982.228.085Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.895.6-3.335Triple
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.594.922.243Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.6102.8-5.402Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.9105.7211.271Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.4100.1-11.277Out
Sep 22LHPCutter87.3102.222.758Double
Sep 20RHPCurveball80.359.957.008Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.2105.6-16.205Double play
Sep 20RHPSweeper84.0102.3-1.428Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24411011
Sep 23413000
Sep 22412000
Sep 20411010
Sep 19400012
Sep 18426100
Sep 16400002
Sep 15511011
Sep 14525101
Sep 13411002
FormHot
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.311 / .335running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.330
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%31.0%
K%23.6%
BB%11.2%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Corbin Carroll · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Corbin Carroll · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Gerrit Cole: 55.5% · 2 HSep 19 vs Cam Schlittler: 53.6% · no hitSep 22 vs Kyle Freeland: 61.8% · 1 HSep 23 vs Mason Adams: 62.7% · 1 HSep 24 vs Tanner Gordon: 62.9% · 1 HSep 25 vs Casey Mize: 61.8% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 4 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.0. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit4 of 5BTB expected 3.0
Games with 2+ TB3 of 5BTB expected 1.7
Games with a HR1 of 5BTB expected 0.7
Talent gradeAwOBA .330 · K% 23.6%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Casey Mize61.8%39.6%17.8%not settled
Sep 24Tanner Gordon62.9%36.6%19.1%4110
Sep 23Mason Adams62.7%36.8%15.8%4130
Sep 22Kyle Freeland61.8%37.7%13.6%4120
Sep 19Cam Schlittler53.6%31.1%12.5%4000
Sep 18Gerrit Cole55.5%28.9%12.4%4261
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.