MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 3Manny Machado
Bats rightTalent grade BBalancedCold
.357wOBA vs RHP.347xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · ARIBrandon Pfaadt
Throws rightBTB Stuff 95Stable
3.4projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brandon Pfaadt's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Manny Machado: wOBA .365 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 30%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.1 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Manny Machado: wOBA .356 vs league .338 (hitter's edge).Changeup 19%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.9 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Manny Machado: wOBA .367 vs league .349 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 84.3 mph, -10.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Manny Machado: wOBA .286 vs league .269 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 13%Curveball: 12% usage, 82.8 mph, -8.9″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Manny Machado: wOBA .304 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Cutter: 11% usage, 90.5 mph, +0.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Manny Machado: wOBA .333 vs league .316 (hitter's edge).Cutter 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Manny Machado's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Manny Machado's last 40 balls in playHit (7)Out (33)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 93.9 mph at 28°Out: 64.9 mph at 12°Out: 94.2 mph at 55°Out: 86.3 mph at 35°Out: 80.6 mph at 49°Home run: 108.6 mph at 25°Out: 92.1 mph at 63°Out: 109.8 mph at -2°Out: 90.3 mph at 42°Out: 55.5 mph at -50°Out: 58.8 mph at -7°Out: 80.7 mph at 72°Out: 79.5 mph at 85°Out: 51.8 mph at 50°Single: 94.3 mph at 19°Out: 100.6 mph at 20°Single: 93.3 mph at -4°Out: 65.1 mph at -46°Out: 107.0 mph at 14°Out: 100.5 mph at 21°Out: 83.2 mph at -7°Out: 87.4 mph at 73°Out: 96.8 mph at -36°Out: 80.7 mph at 40°Single: 96.5 mph at 13°Out: 72.6 mph at -4°Out: 79.8 mph at -27°Out: 91.2 mph at 33°Single: 111.7 mph at 7°Out: 68.7 mph at -18°Out: 74.5 mph at -5°Out: 85.0 mph at 53°Out: 84.9 mph at 57°Home run: 94.1 mph at 29°Out: 82.5 mph at 73°Home run: 104.1 mph at 27°Out: 87.8 mph at 39°Out: 95.5 mph at 22°Out: 106.4 mph at -8°Out: 101.7 mph at 23°
30% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot18% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit68.2%63.5%+4.7
2+ total bases44.0%40.1%+3.9
Home run15.4%14.5%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.6
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Manny Machado hits
Manny Machado · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .530 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.396xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .377 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 34 pitches seen.342xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .164 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 32 pitches seen.221xwOBA .512 shrunk (raw .601 on 23 PA) · league .342 · 54 pitches seen.512xwOBA .454 shrunk (raw .481 on 30 PA) · league .386 · 76 pitches seen.454xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .265 on 21 PA) · league .321 · 67 pitches seen.285xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .320 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 26 pitches seen.313xwOBA .228 shrunk (raw .151 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.228xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .241 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 76 pitches seen.263xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .396 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 95 pitches seen.389xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .250 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 80 pitches seen.262xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .362 on 22 PA) · league .263 · 92 pitches seen.327xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .305 on 53 PA) · league .274 · 283 pitches seen.299
vs RHP · 994 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 22%12%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 20%4%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 9% of 45 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 9% of 67 swings · league 9%9%Whiff 11% of 45 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 14%16%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 23% of 30 swings · league 17%23%Whiff 27% of 45 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 22% of 36 swings · league 32%22%Whiff 61% of 67 swings · league 49%61%
vs RHP · 994 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 87% of 30 pitches · league 62%87%Swings at 79% of 34 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 63% of 32 pitches · league 66%63%Swings at 83% of 54 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 88% of 76 pitches · league 76%88%Swings at 67% of 67 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 73% of 26 pitches · league 65%73%Swings at 63% of 49 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 40% of 76 pitches · league 60%40%Swings at 47% of 95 pitches · league 24%47%Swings at 29% of 80 pitches · league 34%29%Swings at 39% of 92 pitches · league 40%39%Swings at 24% of 283 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 994 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Manny Machado against each of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%93.1+6″ / +15″.365.34716.5%19.3%60About league average vs these
Changeup19%87.1+16″ / +3″.356.33820.5%20.1%35About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.9+16″ / +7″.367.3498.9%11.2%58About league average vs these
Sweeper13%84.3-11″ / +5″.286.26930.4%33.5%37About league average vs these
Curveball12%82.8-9″ / -11″.304.28625.3%27.5%16About league average vs these
Cutter11%90.5+1″ / +9″.333.31620.5%24.9%41About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Manny Machado · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.059.105.235.142.18331.6%5.3%21.4%82.1108.68.3%8.3%25.0%
Last 15 G1556.122.196.306.218.22223.2%8.9%18.5%83.4108.65.3%18.4%28.9%
Last 30 G28106.213.321.371.325.32617.9%14.2%18.8%86.4109.26.9%33.3%31.9%
90 days74258.256.349.457.362.35119.4%12.4%20.8%89.6112.09.7%42.9%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 175 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.21050.0%0.0%28.6%109.8109.80.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G812.091.167.091.133.27516.7%8.3%29.2%96.1111.711.1%55.6%22.2%
Last 30 G1528.167.250.292.243.27825.0%10.7%25.0%91.6111.711.1%44.4%27.8%
90 days3881.214.284.329.275.32123.5%9.9%27.1%91.0111.77.5%45.3%32.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.053.095.211.129.18533.3%4.8%22.4%84.2109.87.7%15.4%23.1%
Last 15 G1568.117.191.267.203.23122.1%8.8%20.5%85.9111.76.4%25.5%27.7%
Last 30 G30134.204.306.354.308.31619.4%13.4%20.2%87.5111.77.8%35.6%31.1%
90 days77339.246.333.427.342.34420.4%11.8%22.2%90.0112.09.2%43.4%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 228 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 23%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 11%
Manny Machado · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.340 / .359running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPChangeup85.593.928.215Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper84.964.912.196Double play
Sep 24RHPFastball96.994.255.015Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.086.335.032Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.480.649.026Sac fly
Sep 23RHPSinker94.5108.6252.007Home run
Sep 23RHPCutter90.192.163.011Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup87.5109.8-2.419Double play
Sep 23RHPSinker95.590.342.004Out
Sep 22RHPSlider90.355.5-50.226Out
Sep 22RHPSinker93.558.8-7.044Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball97.480.772.000Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 24400002
Sep 23514100
Sep 22400011
Sep 20400002
Sep 19522001
Sep 18500012
Sep 17400000
Sep 16511001
Sep 15411010

Two strikes

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%34%11.9%11.2%18.0%
Changeup19%21%21.3%14.1%18.6%
Sweeper13%20%25.6%20.5%19.3%
Curveball12%14%26.7%17.3%20.0%
Sinker14%9%7.7%15.2%17.0%
Cutter11%3%25.0%20.0%17.9%
Manny Machado bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Manny Machado with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.3%42.4%
Whiff%22.2%22.2%
Contact%77.8%77.8%
Chase%36.6%39.9%
wOBA.276.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.4%21.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.343
K%20.4%
BB%11.3%
Whiff%10.7%
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%29.8%
Avg EV90.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

257 PA
wOBA.357
xwOBA vs this mix.347against pitches like his
RV/1000.69
Hard-hit%28.9%
K%19.9%
BB%11.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.0%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 12.9%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.7%4%78 strikeouts: 1.6%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.6%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%9.4%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff95
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball30%9893.15.0%
Changeup19%8287.011.3%
Sinker14%8892.96.4%
Sweeper13%9884.218.7%
Curveball12%10082.710.6%
Cutter11%10990.410.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 196417%11%17%.239
Sep 129923%17%45%.402
Sep 59715%13%30%.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Manny Machado: every projection we've made →