Brandon Pfaadt

ARI · Starting pitcher · 2 starts projected since Sep 19, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 25 · 8:40 PM CT

Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD

3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%15.6%

BB%3.6%

Whiff%9.4%

Velo89.2

BTB Stuff95

Location109

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff

Fastball30%9893.15.0%

Changeup19%8287.011.3%

Sinker14%8892.96.4%

Sweeper13%9884.218.7%

Curveball12%10082.710.6%

Cutter11%10990.410.6%

Other0%––0.0%

Last 3 startsStable

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 19	64	17%	11%	17%	.239
Sep 12	99	23%	17%	45%	.402
Sep 5	97	15%	13%	30%	.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameARI @ SD →Petco Park

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves

Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.
Pitch	Family	Usage	Velo	Horizontal break	Induced vertical break
Fastball	Hard	30%	93.1	+6.4″	+14.8″
Changeup	Offspeed	19%	87.1	+15.8″	+3.2″
Sinker	Hard	14%	92.9	+16.0″	+6.7″
Sweeper	Breaking	13%	84.3	-10.8″	+5.3″
Curveball	Breaking	12%	82.8	-8.9″	-11.0″
Cutter	Hard	11%	90.5	+0.7″	+8.9″

The lineup he faces

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Fernando Tatis Jr.19%

2Dustin Harris15%

3Manny Machado20%

4Ty France18%

5Jackson Merrill22%

6Xander Bogaerts20%

7Luis Campusano22%

8Jake Cronenworth25%

9Samad Taylor25%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+3 pts

Changeup+2 pts

Sweeper+7 pts

Curveball+2 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Cutter-8 pts

Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	30%	34%	11.9%	11.2%	18.0%
Changeup	19%	21%	21.3%	14.1%	18.6%
Sweeper	13%	20%	25.6%	20.5%	19.3%
Curveball	12%	14%	26.7%	17.3%	20.0%
Sinker	14%	9%	7.7%	15.2%	17.0%
Cutter	11%	3%	25.0%	20.0%	17.9%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts3BTB expected 4.3 over 1 starts

BTB's side at the line1 of 1over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.
Date	Opponent	Projected K	Book line	BTB over	Book over	Strikeouts
Sep 25	SD	3.9	3.5	54.3%	53.1%	not settled
Sep 19	NYY	4.3	4.5	42.3%	47.2%	3