MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · NYY · batting 2Ben Rice
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.346wOBA vs LHP.366xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · BALTrevor Rogers
Throws leftBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.9projected K27%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Trevor Rogers's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 50% usage, 94.2 mph, +10.9″ arm side, +15.0″ rise. Ben Rice: wOBA .345 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 50%Changeup: 19% usage, 86.8 mph, +13.6″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Ben Rice: wOBA .317 vs league .309 (about even).Changeup 19%Sweeper: 17% usage, 78.1 mph, -10.9″ arm side, +3.6″ rise. Ben Rice: wOBA .301 vs league .293 (about even).Sweeper 17%Sinker: 9% usage, 93.6 mph, +17.1″ arm side, +7.4″ rise. Ben Rice: wOBA .331 vs league .322 (about even).Sinker 9%Cutter: 6% usage, 83.9 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +3.8″ rise. Ben Rice: wOBA .324 vs league .315 (about even).Cutter 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ben Rice's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.4%63.1%+2.3
2+ total bases45.6%43.7%+2.0
Home run19.7%19.5%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.2
Pitch mix
+2.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.9
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
+2.5
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+1.6
Home run
Starter
-3.4
Pitch mix
+1.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+2.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Ben Rice against each of Trevor Rogers's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball50%94.2+11″ / +15″.345.33719.4%15.7%22About league average vs these
Changeup19%86.8+14″ / +1″.317.30933.6%28.2%13About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper17%78.1-11″ / +4″.301.29329.3%26.7%9About league average vs these
Sinker9%93.6+17″ / +7″.331.32214.1%11.1%28About league average vs these
Cutter6%83.9-4″ / +4″.324.31535.1%28.9%20About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating96Top tier
Last 100 pitches97steady
wOBA / xwOBA.368 / .389running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Trevor Rogers BAL · LHPwith two strikes
Trevor Rogers with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%45%20.9%23.6%18.6%
Sweeper17%24%31.4%25.7%20.5%
Changeup19%16%11.6%8.7%18.3%
Sinker9%10%18.2%22.2%17.7%
Cutter6%4%30.0%17.6%17.9%
Ben Rice bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ben Rice with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%48.3%44.1%
Whiff%25.3%22.7%
Contact%74.7%77.3%
Chase%39.6%38.2%
wOBA.239.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.8%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.363
K%24.1%
BB%12.6%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%8.2%
Hard-hit%31.0%
Avg EV92.0

Against left-handers, last 90 days

110 PA
wOBA.346
xwOBA vs this mix.366against pitches like his
RV/1000.61
Hard-hit%29.6%
K%27.3%
BB%13.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Trevor RogersLHP · BAL vs NYY
6.9projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 24.1 batters over 5.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.0%9%≤34 strikeouts: 9.6%10%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 15.0%15%67 strikeouts: 14.8%15%78 strikeouts: 12.7%13%89+ strikeouts: 25.7%26%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%26.7%
BB%4.3%
Whiff%12.3%
Velo89.4
BTB Stuff100
Location113
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball50%10994.212.5%
Changeup19%7786.711.5%
Sweeper17%10778.015.1%
Sinker9%9193.77.0%
Cutter6%9383.512.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199937%16%22%.152
Sep 139519%15%12%.423
Sep 710423%14%15%.221

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Trevor Rogers BAL · LHPvsNYY lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

4 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ben Rice: every projection we've made →