MLBengine v14
← BAL at NYY, Sep 25, 2026
3:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · lineup confirmed
Hitter · BAL · batting 3Gunnar Henderson
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.336wOBA vs RHP.364xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · NYYBrendan Beck
Throws rightBTB Stuff 88Stable
3.0projected K19%K%1.4trips vs this hitter
Brendan Beck's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 43% usage, 92.8 mph, +7.8″ arm side, +17.1″ rise. Gunnar Henderson: wOBA .365 vs league .362 (about even).Fastball 43%Slider: 33% usage, 84.3 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +1.0″ rise. Gunnar Henderson: wOBA .345 vs league .341 (about even).Slider 33%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Gunnar Henderson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.6%61.9%+0.7
2+ total bases37.9%36.7%+1.2
Home run11.8%9.9%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.6
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+1.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Gunnar Henderson against each of Brendan Beck's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball43%92.8+8″ / +17″.365.36213.8%15.6%54About league average vs these
Slider33%84.3-2″ / +1″.345.34125.2%27.7%21About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating79Above average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.323 / .349running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Brendan Beck NYY · RHPwith two strikes
Brendan Beck with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider33%41%22.2%16.7%21.1%
Fastball43%31%0.0%0.0%18.0%
Splitter9%17%33.3%20.0%19.0%
Sinker8%7%0.0%50.0%17.0%
Curveball6%3%–0.0%20.0%
Gunnar Henderson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Gunnar Henderson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.7%41.0%
Whiff%19.2%21.3%
Contact%80.8%78.7%
Chase%37.1%39.6%
wOBA.267.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.3%20.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.330
K%20.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%9.5%
Barrel%4.5%
Hard-hit%27.6%
Avg EV89.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

201 PA
wOBA.336
xwOBA vs this mix.364against pitches like his
RV/1000.52
Hard-hit%27.3%
K%19.1%
BB%11.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brendan BeckRHP · NYY vs BAL
3.0projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 11.5 batters over 2.7 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 65.6%66%≤34 strikeouts: 16.5%16%45 strikeouts: 9.8%10%56 strikeouts: 4.9%5%67 strikeouts: 2.1%2%78 strikeouts: 0.7%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.4%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 57% (red bars) · under: 43%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%19.0%
BB%9.5%
Whiff%16.5%
Velo88.1
BTB Stuff88
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball44%9592.713.2%
Slider33%7984.131.0%
Splitter10%9282.911.1%
Sinker7%8592.316.7%
Curveball6%7676.60.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brendan Beck NYY · RHPvsBAL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameBAL @ NYY →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Gunnar Henderson: every projection we've made →