Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pete Alonso's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.
| Market | BTB | Without the matchup | Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ hit | 71.9% | 68.8% | +3.1 |
| 2+ total bases | 53.8% | 49.7% | +4.1 |
| Home run | 27.9% | 23.6% | +4.3 |
Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.
Pitch by pitch
Pete Alonso against each of Brendan Beck's pitches| His pitch | Usage | Velo | Movement | His wOBA | League | His whiff% | League | Sample | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 43% | 92.8 | +8″ / +17″ | .397 | .361 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 58 | Hits these better than most |
| Slider | 33% | 84.3 | -2″ / +1″ | .344 | .308 | 30.8% | 30.9% | 44 | Hits these better than most |
Statcast
opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonightNo pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.
Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.
Two strikes
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slider | 33% | 41% | 22.2% | 16.7% | 21.1% |
| Fastball | 43% | 31% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.0% |
| Splitter | 9% | 17% | 33.3% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| Sinker | 8% | 7% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 17.0% |
| Curveball | 6% | 3% | – | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| With two strikes | Him | League |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 41.9% | 42.4% |
| Whiff% | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| Contact% | 78.3% | 77.8% |
| Chase% | 32.8% | 39.9% |
| wOBA | .280 | .237 |
| Whiff vs his put-away shapes | 21.4% | 21.9% |
The hitter
season-level talent readAgainst right-handers, last 90 days
218 PATalent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
5 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.