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Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · 5 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Pete Alonso · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.000.333.000.220.61216.7%16.7%0.0%96.0107.533.3%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1117.091.412.091.300.48511.8%23.5%12.5%98.2108.311.1%66.7%22.2%
Last 30 G2146.278.413.444.384.49617.4%15.2%21.0%97.9111.917.2%75.9%37.9%
90 days55113.276.363.500.375.42123.9%9.7%24.4%96.3112.016.7%69.4%41.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.231.286.923.479.53728.6%0.0%19.0%92.0112.944.4%55.6%55.6%
Last 15 G1550.273.360.818.476.46828.0%10.0%20.0%88.4112.930.0%40.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2785.216.318.595.382.38729.4%10.6%23.9%90.6112.920.4%44.9%38.8%
90 days72218.280.385.586.422.42925.2%11.9%22.9%92.2112.919.1%52.7%42.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 28%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.176.300.706.411.55725.0%5.0%15.4%93.0112.941.7%58.3%50.0%
Last 15 G1567.236.373.673.433.47223.9%13.4%18.9%90.7112.925.6%46.2%43.6%
Last 30 G30131.236.351.545.382.42425.2%12.2%22.9%93.3112.919.2%56.4%38.5%
90 days76331.278.378.556.406.42624.8%11.2%23.4%93.7112.918.2%58.6%41.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 203 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 24%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 9%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 23RHPCutter89.3107.0211.349Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.7109.2241.946Home run
Sep 23RHPCutter87.669.5-10.040Out
Sep 21LHPFastball92.4100.1-3.283Out
Sep 21RHPFastball93.5101.4261.025Home run
Sep 21RHPSinker83.1112.9221.941Home run
Sep 20RHPFastball102.666.1-1.089Out
Sep 20RHPSinker96.298.2-15.214Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball85.480.541.041Out
Sep 20RHPCutter91.474.9-1.098Out
Sep 19LHPFastball92.4107.5221.608Out
Sep 19RHPSinker99.089.225.087Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 23400001
Sep 23414112
Sep 21428201
Sep 20400000
Sep 19400001
Sep 18514112
Sep 16414101
Sep 15514102
Sep 14400011
Sep 13533001
FormCold
Contact rating100Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.406 / .442running 37 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run6/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.394
Barrel%11.0%
Hard-hit%35.5%
K%24.5%
BB%10.8%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Pete Alonso · percentile ranksvs 304 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

Pete Alonso · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Dustin May: 66.6% · 1 HSep 19 vs Robert Gasser: 68.0% · no hitSep 20 vs Jacob Misiorowski: 61.9% · no hitSep 23 vs CJ Van Eyk: 70.1% · no hitSep 25 vs Brendan Beck: 71.6% · 3 HSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 2 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 3.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit2 of 5BTB expected 3.4
Games with 2+ TB2 of 5BTB expected 2.5
Games with a HR2 of 5BTB expected 1.2
Talent gradeAwOBA .394 · K% 24.5%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25Brendan Beck71.6%54.7%30.7%5392
Sep 23CJ Van Eyk70.1%48.8%23.5%4000
Sep 20Jacob Misiorowski61.9%46.3%19.2%4000
Sep 19Robert Gasser68.0%53.6%22.3%4000
Sep 18Dustin May66.6%47.8%21.5%5141
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.