MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CHC · batting 3Alex Bregman
Bats rightTalent grade AContactHot
.433wOBA vs LHP.343xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · BOSAlec Gamboa
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Stable
1.8projected K16%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Alec Gamboa's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 40% usage, 95.6 mph, +3.5″ arm side, +17.0″ rise. Alex Bregman: wOBA .349 vs league .328 (hitter's edge).Fastball 40%Slider: 35% usage, 88.5 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +1.5″ rise. Alex Bregman: wOBA .333 vs league .312 (hitter's edge).Slider 35%Sinker: 22% usage, 94.5 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +8.5″ rise. Alex Bregman: wOBA .378 vs league .357 (hitter's edge).Sinker 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alex Bregman's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.8%65.0%+0.8
2+ total bases41.0%40.4%+0.6
Home run12.8%13.4%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Alex Bregman against each of Alec Gamboa's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball40%95.6+4″ / +17″.349.3287.8%17.4%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider35%88.5-4″ / +2″.333.31217.7%25.1%10About league average vs these
Sinker22%94.5+12″ / +9″.378.3576.5%14.8%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormHot
Contact rating80Excellent
Last 100 pitches96trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.404 / .351running 53 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPwith two strikes
Alec Gamboa with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider35%39%20.0%12.8%21.6%
Fastball40%39%7.4%14.9%18.6%
Sinker22%16%10.0%21.1%17.7%
Changeup2%3%50.0%50.0%18.3%
Curveball2%3%0.0%0.0%21.2%
Alex Bregman bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alex Bregman with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.2%41.5%
Whiff%16.8%21.6%
Contact%83.2%78.4%
Chase%42.8%39.9%
wOBA.254.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes14.8%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.390
K%13.4%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%5.6%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%27.9%
Avg EV88.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

79 PA
wOBA.433
xwOBA vs this mix.343against pitches like his
RV/1002.76
Hard-hit%24.6%
K%10.8%
BB%10.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Alec GamboaLHP · BOS vs CHC
1.8projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 10.8 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 89.3%89%≤34 strikeouts: 7.1%7%45 strikeouts: 2.6%3%56 strikeouts: 0.7%1%67 strikeouts: 0.2%0%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.0%0%9+book 1.5
Over 1.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%6.9%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10496.08.2%
Slider32%10888.710.3%
Sinker17%10995.06.7%
Changeup3%10386.96.8%
Curveball1%9081.70.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alex Bregman: every projection we've made →