MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · BOS · batting 10Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.267wOBA vs RHP.279xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CHCClay Holmes
Throws rightBTB Stuff 99Trending Up
3.3projected K16%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Clay Holmes's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 47% usage, 92.4 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +1.8″ rise. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: wOBA .337 vs league .344 (about even).Sinker 47%Sweeper: 17% usage, 80.6 mph, -15.7″ arm side, -3.6″ rise. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: wOBA .275 vs league .283 (about even).Sweeper 17%Changeup: 15% usage, 87.0 mph, +8.9″ arm side, -1.4″ rise. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: wOBA .280 vs league .288 (about even).Changeup 15%Cutter: 14% usage, 84.5 mph, -1.3″ arm side, -3.1″ rise. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: wOBA .291 vs league .298 (about even).Cutter 14%Curveball: 5% usage, 80.2 mph, -9.7″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Isiah Kiner-Falefa: wOBA .297 vs league .305 (about even).Curveball 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Isiah Kiner-Falefa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.0%57.0%+1.0
2+ total bases28.1%27.5%+0.6
Home run2.4%3.2%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.5
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Isiah Kiner-Falefa against each of Clay Holmes's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker47%92.4+16″ / +2″.337.3449.5%12.4%3Little history vs this shape
Sweeper17%80.6-16″ / -4″.275.28321.7%25.2%2Little history vs this shape
Changeup15%87.0+9″ / -1″.280.28824.1%28.5%1Little history vs this shape
Cutter14%84.5-1″ / -3″.291.29826.1%32.2%4Little history vs this shape
Curveball5%80.2-10″ / -14″.297.30519.5%22.8%5Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.172 / .226running 54 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPwith two strikes
Clay Holmes with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup15%24%34.8%18.2%18.6%
Sweeper17%21%12.5%7.9%19.3%
Sinker47%20%13.8%16.2%17.0%
Cutter14%16%41.2%28.6%17.9%
Curveball5%13%33.3%21.7%20.0%
Fastball2%6%0.0%0.0%18.0%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Isiah Kiner-Falefa with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.1%42.4%
Whiff%21.5%22.2%
Contact%78.5%77.8%
Chase%39.7%39.9%
wOBA.235.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.6%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.286
K%19.1%
BB%6.1%
Whiff%9.7%
Barrel%1.7%
Hard-hit%21.7%
Avg EV83.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

31 PA
wOBA.267
xwOBA vs this mix.279against pitches like his
RV/100-1.19
Hard-hit%22.7%
K%20.2%
BB%9.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Clay HolmesRHP · CHC vs BOS
3.3projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 22.7 batters over 5.3 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 57.5%57%≤34 strikeouts: 18.2%18%45 strikeouts: 12.2%12%56 strikeouts: 6.8%7%67 strikeouts: 3.2%3%78 strikeouts: 1.3%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.8%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 43% (red bars) · under: 57%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.3%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo87.8
BTB Stuff99
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Sinker47%9292.34.0%
Sweeper17%8680.45.0%
Changeup15%9387.014.8%
Cutter14%15384.723.5%
Curveball5%9580.211.1%
Fastball2%5992.86.2%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 189817%8%17%.300
Sep 1210022%15%26%.358
Sep 6809%5%30%.404

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Clay Holmes CHC · RHPvsBOS lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Isiah Kiner-Falefa: every projection we've made →