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Isiah Kiner-Falefa

BOS · Hitter · 6 games projected since Sep 18, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Statcast

by window and pitcher hand
Isiah Kiner-Falefa · last 90 daysthrough Sep 24, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.000.111.000.100.17140.0%10.0%20.0%66.586.00.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G713.000.167.000.133.22430.8%15.4%17.4%70.795.80.0%14.3%0.0%
Last 30 G713.000.167.000.133.22430.8%15.4%17.4%70.795.80.0%14.3%0.0%
90 days713.000.167.000.133.22430.8%15.4%17.4%70.795.80.0%14.3%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 7 balls in play
Ground 86%Line drive 0%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.000.000.000.029.08637.5%0.0%15.4%71.693.00.0%0.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1231.148.233.185.216.24616.1%9.7%12.0%82.5103.30.0%27.3%27.3%
Last 30 G1231.148.233.185.216.24616.1%9.7%12.0%82.5103.30.0%27.3%27.3%
90 days1231.148.233.185.216.24616.1%9.7%12.0%82.5103.30.0%27.3%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 22 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 18%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.000.062.000.069.13438.9%5.6%18.2%69.093.00.0%0.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1344.108.214.135.191.24020.5%11.4%13.7%79.7103.30.0%24.1%20.7%
Last 30 G1344.108.214.135.191.24020.5%11.4%13.7%79.7103.30.0%24.1%20.7%
90 days1344.108.214.135.191.24020.5%11.4%13.7%79.7103.30.0%24.1%20.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 29 balls in play
Ground 66%Line drive 14%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 3%

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 24LHPFastball94.068.56.178Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.786.05.342Out
Sep 20RHPSinker94.476.0-28.034Force out
Sep 20RHPSweeper86.593.0-4.230Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup84.776.9-41.074Out
Sep 19RHPFastball93.324.516–Sac bunt
Sep 19RHPFastball98.281.9-13.094Out
Sep 19RHPFastball94.482.4-24.047Out
Sep 18LHPSinker89.570.7-26.051Force out
Sep 18LHPFastball91.830.6-78–Sac bunt
Sep 16LHPCurveball81.895.85.450Double play
Sep 16RHPCurveball75.878.244.057Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 24300002
Sep 22400012
Sep 20300000
Sep 19400001
Sep 18400002
Sep 16300001
Sep 12100010
Sep 11411001
Sep 9400000
Sep 7411020
FormCold
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.172 / .226running 54 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Talent
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.286
Barrel%1.7%
Hard-hit%21.7%
K%19.1%
BB%6.1%

A season-level read, blending this season with last, shrunk toward league where the sample is thin.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa · every 1+ hit projection, frozen pre-gameHitNo hitNot settled
30%50%70%90%Sep 18 vs Ian Seymour: 49.8% · no hitSep 19 vs Freddy Peralta: 46.3% · no hitSep 20 vs Griffin Jax: 44.8% · no hitSep 22 vs Parker Messick: 46.8% · no hitSep 24 vs Daniel Espino: 52.5% · no hitSep 25 vs David Peterson: 56.0% · not settledSep 18Sep 25

Hits in 0 of 5 settled games; the projections added up to 2.4. A handful of games says little about the model on its own.

Predicted vs what happened

5 settled games
Games with a hit0 of 5BTB expected 2.4
Games with 2+ TB0 of 5BTB expected 1.1
Games with a HR0 of 5BTB expected 0.2
Talent gradeFwOBA .286 · K% 19.1%

One player's handful of games says little about the model; the market-level record is on the record. A game he never batted in is void, not a miss.

DateFacing1+ hit2+ TBHRPAHTBHR
Sep 25David Peterson56.0%26.0%2.2%not settled
Sep 24Daniel Espino52.5%22.2%2.4%3000
Sep 22Parker Messick46.8%23.4%3.1%4000
Sep 20Griffin Jax44.8%23.1%3.1%3000
Sep 19Freddy Peralta46.3%22.7%3.3%4000
Sep 18Ian Seymour49.8%22.3%4.3%4000
Probabilities as served and frozen before first pitch.