MLBengine v14
← CHC at BOS, Sep 25, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Fenway Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · CHC · batting 6Nico Hoerner
Bats rightTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.271wOBA vs LHP.265xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · BOSAlec Gamboa
Throws leftBTB Stuff 106Stable
1.8projected K16%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Alec Gamboa's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 40% usage, 95.6 mph, +3.5″ arm side, +17.0″ rise. Nico Hoerner: wOBA .317 vs league .328 (about even).Fastball 40%Slider: 35% usage, 88.5 mph, -3.5″ arm side, +1.5″ rise. Nico Hoerner: wOBA .301 vs league .312 (about even).Slider 35%Sinker: 22% usage, 94.5 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +8.5″ rise. Nico Hoerner: wOBA .346 vs league .357 (about even).Sinker 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nico Hoerner's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit69.8%69.3%+0.5
2+ total bases37.6%37.0%+0.6
Home run3.9%4.2%-0.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
-0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nico Hoerner against each of Alec Gamboa's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball40%95.6+4″ / +17″.317.32812.9%17.4%14About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider35%88.5-4″ / +2″.301.31219.5%25.1%6Little history vs this shape
Sinker22%94.5+12″ / +9″.346.35710.9%14.8%32About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches79steady
wOBA / xwOBA.324 / .340results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPwith two strikes
Alec Gamboa with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Slider35%39%20.0%12.8%21.6%
Fastball40%39%7.4%14.9%18.6%
Sinker22%16%10.0%21.1%17.7%
Changeup2%3%50.0%50.0%18.3%
Curveball2%3%0.0%0.0%21.2%
Nico Hoerner bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nico Hoerner with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.8%41.5%
Whiff%19.8%21.6%
Contact%80.2%78.4%
Chase%44.9%39.9%
wOBA.242.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.6%19.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.327
K%10.3%
BB%3.4%
Whiff%6.7%
Barrel%1.8%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV86.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

73 PA
wOBA.271
xwOBA vs this mix.265against pitches like his
RV/100-1.02
Hard-hit%24.0%
K%13.8%
BB%3.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Alec GamboaLHP · BOS vs CHC
1.8projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 10.8 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 89.3%89%≤34 strikeouts: 7.1%7%45 strikeouts: 2.6%3%56 strikeouts: 0.7%1%67 strikeouts: 0.2%0%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.0%0%9+book 1.5
Over 1.5: 53% (red bars) · under: 47%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.4%
BB%8.6%
Whiff%6.9%
Velo92.5
BTB Stuff106
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball47%10496.08.2%
Slider32%10888.710.3%
Sinker17%10995.06.7%
Changeup3%10386.96.8%
Curveball1%9081.70.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Alec Gamboa BOS · LHPvsCHC lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 10 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCHC @ BOS →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nico Hoerner: every projection we've made →