MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 5Kazuma Okamoto
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.372wOBA vs LHP.368xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .377 vs league .367 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .383 vs league .373 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .319 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Kazuma Okamoto: wOBA .330 vs league .319 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kazuma Okamoto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kazuma Okamoto's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 89.9 mph at 9°Double: 102.4 mph at 13°Double: 107.6 mph at 20°Out: 101.0 mph at -2°Out: 85.9 mph at -20°Out: 78.0 mph at 36°Out: 87.1 mph at 29°Out: 97.3 mph at 26°Out: 99.5 mph at -7°Out: 102.5 mph at -4°Single: 82.3 mph at 20°Single: 102.7 mph at -12°Out: 90.2 mph at 55°Out: 95.7 mph at 26°Out: 70.5 mph at -14°Out: 87.1 mph at -25°Out: 85.6 mph at 48°Out: 79.3 mph at 7°Single: 66.5 mph at -47°Out: 85.9 mph at 32°Single: 99.8 mph at 5°Out: 106.1 mph at 8°Out: 93.3 mph at 29°Single: 78.6 mph at 21°Out: 95.5 mph at 37°Out: 97.2 mph at -21°Out: 88.1 mph at -15°Out: 85.2 mph at 29°Home run: 107.3 mph at 31°Home run: 107.9 mph at 27°Out: 79.8 mph at 82°Out: 78.4 mph at 47°Single: 102.9 mph at 14°Out: 86.3 mph at 42°Double: 103.2 mph at 20°Home run: 107.0 mph at 28°Out: 76.2 mph at 11°Out: 87.2 mph at -7°Out: 46.7 mph at -72°Home run: 106.2 mph at 36°
45% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.3%61.4%+3.9
2+ total bases42.6%37.6%+5.0
Home run19.7%14.9%+4.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
+0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.1
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.6
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
+3.3
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kazuma Okamoto hits
Kazuma Okamoto · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 12 pitches seen.224xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .417 on 6 PA) · league .296 · 15 pitches seen.336xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 11 pitches seen.218xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .458 on 8 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.368xwOBA .490 shrunk (raw .701 on 6 PA) · league .385 · 17 pitches seen.490xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .206 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 23 pitches seen.295xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .436 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 24 pitches seen.321xwOBA .482 shrunk (raw .658 on 9 PA) · league .350 · 23 pitches seen.482xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .371 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.326xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .350 on 6 PA) · league .302 · 25 pitches seen.318xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .352 on 10 PA) · league .346 · 54 pitches seen.349xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .219 on 12 PA) · league .289 · 60 pitches seen.254xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .404 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 58 pitches seen.316
vs LHP · 359 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 21%18%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 23%50%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 9%11%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 10%15%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 16%18%Whiff 43% of 7 swings · league 25%43%Whiff 36% of 11 swings · league 29%36%Whiff 64% of 22 swings · league 48%64%Whiff 39% of 18 swings · league 34%39%
vs LHP · 359 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 64%55%Swings at 91% of 21 pitches · league 67%91%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 61% of 23 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 67% of 24 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 52% of 23 pitches · league 68%52%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 28% of 25 pitches · league 30%28%Swings at 20% of 54 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 37% of 60 pitches · league 31%37%Swings at 31% of 58 pitches · league 41%31%
vs LHP · 359 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kazuma Okamoto against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.377.36715.8%12.6%13About league average vs these
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.383.37313.7%10.8%8About league average vs these
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.319.30934.0%30.1%9About league average vs these
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.330.31932.0%28.4%13About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kazuma Okamoto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G24.333.500.667.488.6170.0%25.0%0.0%96.0102.40.0%66.7%100.0%
Last 15 G715.231.333.538.370.43113.3%13.3%22.2%90.6107.99.1%45.5%45.5%
Last 30 G1636.300.417.733.472.52313.9%16.7%18.0%92.6109.824.0%48.0%52.0%
90 days3986.253.349.560.395.39325.6%10.5%28.0%91.8109.820.8%50.9%41.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 53 balls in play
Ground 26%Line drive 17%Fly ball 43%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.188.235.250.221.26223.5%5.9%30.8%92.0107.68.3%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1446.268.348.537.378.37721.7%10.9%26.6%91.1107.612.9%45.2%45.2%
Last 30 G2986.237.314.447.340.34023.3%10.5%28.0%90.5107.610.5%45.6%40.4%
90 days71211.216.275.392.308.29923.7%7.6%27.4%88.2110.86.9%34.5%33.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 20%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.316.271.33019.0%9.5%26.7%92.8107.66.7%53.3%46.7%
Last 15 G1561.259.344.537.376.39019.7%11.5%25.5%91.0107.911.9%45.2%45.2%
Last 30 G30122.255.344.528.379.39420.5%12.3%25.3%91.2109.814.6%46.3%43.9%
90 days73297.227.296.439.333.32624.2%8.4%27.6%89.2110.810.6%38.9%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 198 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 19%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 14%
Kazuma Okamoto · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating62Average
Last 100 pitches5trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.319 / .328results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup86.389.99.516Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball83.3102.413.892Double
Sep 25RHPCurveball84.4107.6201.249Double
Sep 23RHPSlider86.5101.0-2.302Double play
Sep 23RHPCutter90.585.9-20.042Out
Sep 23RHPCutter91.878.036.106Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.987.129.031Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.597.326.439Out
Sep 21RHPCurveball84.799.5-7.202Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.2102.5-4.302Double play
Sep 21RHPCutter89.082.320.816Single
Sep 20RHPSlider92.5102.7-12.223Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25424010
Sep 23400010
Sep 23400002
Sep 21411001
Sep 20511001
Sep 19411000
Sep 18411011
Sep 16400011
Sep 15411001
Sep 14414101

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
Kazuma Okamoto bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kazuma Okamoto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.9%41.5%
Whiff%22.3%21.6%
Contact%77.7%78.4%
Chase%38.8%39.9%
wOBA.265.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.1%18.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.320
K%25.2%
BB%8.1%
Whiff%13.6%
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%25.4%
Avg EV88.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

84 PA
wOBA.372
xwOBA vs this mix.368against pitches like his
RV/1000.87
Hard-hit%30.1%
K%26.1%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kazuma Okamoto: every projection we've made →