MLBengine v14
← CIN at TOR, Sep 25, 2026
6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · lineup confirmed
Hitter · TOR · batting 6Nathan Lukes
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedHot
.311wOBA vs LHP.273xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · CINNick Lodolo
Throws leftBTB Stuff 91Trending Down
3.2projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Nick Lodolo's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 28% usage, 93.7 mph, +16.4″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .329 vs league .333 (about even).Fastball 28%Sinker: 27% usage, 93.5 mph, +18.6″ arm side, +4.4″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .324 vs league .327 (about even).Sinker 27%Curveball: 24% usage, 82.5 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -0.8″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .288 vs league .291 (about even).Curveball 24%Changeup: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +16.7″ arm side, +1.1″ rise. Nathan Lukes: wOBA .318 vs league .321 (about even).Changeup 22%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nathan Lukes's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Nathan Lukes's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 93.5 mph at 14°Out: 85.2 mph at -15°Single: 97.6 mph at -1°Single: 100.1 mph at 10°Out: 101.1 mph at 22°Single: 97.1 mph at 8°Out: 97.3 mph at -17°Single: 90.3 mph at 1°Out: 84.2 mph at 7°Out: 88.7 mph at 10°Out: 72.7 mph at 46°Out: 79.7 mph at -31°Single: 94.8 mph at 10°Out: 96.2 mph at -9°Out: 98.4 mph at 18°Single: 98.7 mph at 4°Single: 102.5 mph at -2°Out: 94.1 mph at 29°Out: 96.7 mph at 30°Out: 58.9 mph at -62°Out: 99.2 mph at 26°Out: 98.1 mph at 4°Single: 43.2 mph at -58°Out: 61.9 mph at 73°Out: 24.4 mph at -62°Out: 66.7 mph at -44°Single: 63.9 mph at -37°Double: 97.3 mph at 24°Out: 87.5 mph at 9°Out: 92.2 mph at 29°Out: 101.1 mph at 19°Single: 87.6 mph at -11°Out: 75.1 mph at -6°Single: 69.1 mph at 33°Out: 81.6 mph at 37°Out: 91.8 mph at 23°Single: 83.9 mph at -18°Single: 90.6 mph at 2°Out: 73.8 mph at -6°Out: 68.6 mph at -13°
35% hit 95+ mph38% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.1%63.3%+1.7
2+ total bases35.1%33.5%+1.6
Home run7.8%7.6%+0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+0.9
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
+1.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
+0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Nathan Lukes hits
Nathan Lukes · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .208 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.208xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .617 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 8 pitches seen.390xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .255 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 6 pitches seen.254xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .288 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.304xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .232 on 3 PA) · league .385 · 18 pitches seen.354xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .106 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 11 pitches seen.282xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .679 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 16 pitches seen.331xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .227 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 12 pitches seen.332xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .143 on 5 PA) · league .299 · 9 pitches seen.253xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seen.332xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .245 on 5 PA) · league .346 · 19 pitches seen.316xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .191 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 41 pitches seen.242xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .364 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 28 pitches seen.303
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 19%50%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 21%14%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 9%17%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 35% of 17 swings · league 48%35%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 71%88%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 67%55%Swings at 44% of 18 pitches · league 76%44%Swings at 36% of 11 pitches · league 72%36%Swings at 44% of 16 pitches · league 59%44%Swings at 67% of 12 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 100% of 9 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 6% of 17 pitches · league 30%6%Swings at 42% of 19 pitches · league 26%42%Swings at 42% of 41 pitches · league 31%42%Swings at 54% of 28 pitches · league 41%54%
vs LHP · 199 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Nathan Lukes against each of Nick Lodolo's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball28%93.7+16″ / +9″.329.3335.4%9.8%14About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker27%93.5+19″ / +4″.324.3276.1%11.1%13About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball24%82.5-5″ / -1″.288.29124.4%32.1%10About league average vs these
Changeup22%87.7+17″ / +1″.318.32113.9%19.4%11About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Nathan Lukes · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.750.8331.000.742.5100.0%16.7%10.0%92.9102.50.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G510.571.667.714.694.5450.0%10.0%6.2%74.3102.50.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1224.381.435.476.443.3138.3%4.2%9.5%78.6102.50.0%15.0%30.0%
90 days3057.260.315.380.332.28515.8%3.5%10.4%79.9102.50.0%13.6%31.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 44 balls in play
Ground 64%Line drive 18%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.357.375.357.325.3956.2%6.2%6.5%92.9101.10.0%57.1%50.0%
Last 15 G1441.289.317.316.284.28414.6%4.9%8.1%87.4101.13.0%36.4%39.4%
Last 30 G2885.329.365.468.374.33212.9%4.7%10.6%89.2105.05.8%43.5%39.1%
90 days71223.265.312.373.314.29613.0%6.3%12.4%86.6106.13.9%34.1%33.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 179 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 18%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.444.500.500.439.4264.5%9.1%7.3%92.9102.50.0%50.0%44.4%
Last 15 G1551.333.380.378.358.33111.8%5.9%7.8%84.9102.52.4%34.1%36.6%
Last 30 G30109.340.380.470.389.32811.9%4.6%10.4%86.9105.04.5%37.1%37.1%
90 days73280.264.313.374.317.29413.6%5.7%12.0%85.3106.13.1%30.0%32.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 223 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 18%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 5%
Nathan Lukes · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating45Average
Last 100 pitches94trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.307 / .310results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker94.293.514.931Double
Sep 25LHPCurveball82.985.2-15.073Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball86.297.6-1.365Single
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.3100.110.754Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.7101.122.675Out
Sep 23RHPCutter89.797.18.627Single
Sep 23RHPSinker93.497.3-17.146Fielder's choice
Sep 23LHPSinker93.190.31.241Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.984.27.334Out
Sep 23RHPSlider88.288.710.476Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball72.772.746.203Out
Sep 21RHPCutter89.179.7-31.054Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25423000
Sep 23511001
Sep 23422000
Sep 21411010
Sep 20522010
Sep 19200000
Sep 18200000
Sep 16411001
Sep 15311001
Sep 14412001

Two strikes

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPwith two strikes
Nick Lodolo with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball28%33%15.9%12.5%18.6%
Curveball24%30%39.5%23.5%21.2%
Sinker27%23%8.1%11.5%17.7%
Changeup22%15%17.2%12.2%18.3%
Nathan Lukes bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nathan Lukes with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.3%44.1%
Whiff%20.3%22.7%
Contact%79.7%77.3%
Chase%40.1%38.2%
wOBA.229.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.2%18.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.321
K%14.0%
BB%6.5%
Whiff%6.7%
Barrel%2.8%
Hard-hit%24.5%
Avg EV85.5

Against left-handers, last 90 days

55 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.273against pitches like his
RV/100-0.84
Hard-hit%17.9%
K%18.3%
BB%6.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick LodoloLHP · CIN vs TOR
3.2projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.0 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 59.5%60%≤34 strikeouts: 17.9%18%45 strikeouts: 11.6%12%56 strikeouts: 6.2%6%67 strikeouts: 3.0%3%78 strikeouts: 1.2%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.6%1%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 23% (red bars) · under: 77%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%16.7%
BB%10.4%
Whiff%8.9%
Velo89.6
BTB Stuff91
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball28%10293.65.4%
Sinker27%9693.42.3%
Curveball24%9082.517.9%
Changeup22%7087.711.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 19903%3%35%.309
Sep 1410415%7%30%.285
Sep 89726%11%17%.441

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Lodolo CIN · LHPvsTOR lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameCIN @ TOR →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nathan Lukes: every projection we've made →